Tracy Claeys math...

[Jake]

up 7 with user two minutes to go and decides to go for two instead of kicking for one.

This is a direct shot at meathead mentality on two levels.

First it values offense over defense in an attempt to put a game away.

And secondly he's basically saying, "if we don't make and you do score, you don't have the sack to go for two to win it, and I still get overtime".

Genius modern day thinking.

 

[orangenirvana]

Didn't Pasqualoni do that in the Music City Bowl against Kentucky in 1999? It may have been by accident.

 

[TDTOrange]

up 7 with user two minutes to go and decides to go for two instead of kicking for one.

This is a direct shot at meathead mentality on two levels.

First it values offense over defense in an attempt to put a game away.

And secondly he's basically saying, "if we don't make and you do score, you don't have the sack to go for two to win it, and I still get overtime".

Genius modern day thinking.

Agreed. He was getting hammered for this decision on twitter by a lot of supposedly smart sportswriters but I love the call. A 50/50 play to basically end the game is so worth it over the tiny chance of doing something disastrous and giving up the 2 on the PAT (and still having a 5 point lead). Otherwise, the worst case is you're up 7 and you'll end up in OT.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I wonder what the math says is the best outcome. It might be the PAT.

If you kick the PAT you cannot lose in regulation. OT is a crap shoot that should be avoided and should not be a fall back option. PATs are not 100% but it isn't far from that number. So assuming the PAT and that you give up a TD, there is roughly a 50% chance you win (stop 2 pt conversion) in regulation and a 50% chance you go to OT. Then in OT it will be about 50/50 so overall you have a 75% chance of winning, a 25% chance of losing in OT, and a 0.0% chance of losing in regulation.

If you go for 2 then there is a 50% chance that the game is over right then and there. However if you miss the conversion and give up a TD one of two things can happen. You can go to OT and end up with the same 75%-25%-0% as above, or your opponent can go for a 2 point conversion. In which case it becomes 75%-0%-25% as the possible outcomes.

I would think that the actual numbers on the subject would say that you increase the chances of winning by a slim margin. Certainly not a significant one. While the chances of losing would be slightly less overall, you would be significantly increasing the chances that you lose in regulation. At that point you have to think risk/reward. Is it worth a slight increase in winning to risk losing in regulation? I wouldn't think so. If you lose in OT you can tip your cap to the other team. If you lose in regulation you will 2nd guess the decision.

 

[Scooch]

It's probably a combo of math and mentality. The math is likely a bit fuzzy in terms of likelihood to win. But the mentality is a difference between trying to seize the opportunity to outright win vs. playing to prolong the likelihood of losing as long as possible. In most cases I'm a fan of the former.

 

[orangenirvana]

It's probably a combo of math and mentality. The math is likely a bit fuzzy in terms of likelihood to win. But the mentality is a difference between trying to seize the opportunity to outright win vs. playing to prolong the likelihood of losing as long as possible. In most cases I'm a fan of the former.

Also depends on how good your offense and defense are, and how good the opponent's offense/defense are. If it's a high-scoring game and your defense can't stop a nose-bleed then might as well go for 2.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Another factor that needs to be considered is your opponent's mind set.

Down 8 every HC should be trying to score as quickly as possible. That way if the 2 point conversion fails, you still have time to onside kick and get a FG. However 99.9% of HC will think that they have 2 mins to tie the game and will take their time. So being up 8 will at worst get you to OT.

Down 9 every HC will be trying to score as quickly as possible since they need two scores to win the game. So that increases the chances that you lose in regulation as opposed to being up by 8 points. Yes that increase will likely be 0.0001% but it is still an increase.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

It's probably a combo of math and mentality. The math is likely a bit fuzzy in terms of likelihood to win. But the mentality is a difference between trying to seize the opportunity to outright win vs. playing to prolong the likelihood of losing as long as possible. In most cases I'm a fan of the former.

Yep. The math's helpful up until a point.