Wake is ranked below us

[HRE Otto IV]

I am not a huge fan of S&P+ but we are ahead in this week's rankings. I don't know what it is about the metric but it loves BC's D the last 2 years. last year BC had a pretty good D but certainly not Top 10. This year their D stinks. Yet they have the 9th rated D, which totally skews their overall ranking. They really need to adjust their formula.

4. Clemson (4th in Sagarin)
5. Louisville (6)
9. FSU (13)
19. VA Tech (12)
28. USF (34)
30. ND (46)
33. Pitt (41)
39. NC State (36)
67. BC (76)
68. SU (93)
71. Wake (62)
83. UConn (96)
NR Colgate (156)

IMO NC State and BC are inflated because of SOS. Yes there is an adjustment for it but this early in the year it is harder to be accurate. Those two teams will head straight downhill the rest of the way. I still think (baring 44 straight runs up the middle) that we should beat those teams and get to 4-7 going into Pitt, which is unlikely a W but possible.

 

[Chip]

The NC State - ND game is such an outlier in so many ways.

I was hoping to learn a lot from that game. But we learned nothing.

 

[Millhouse]

I am not a huge fan of S&P+ but we are ahead in this week's rankings. I don't know what it is about the metric but it loves BC's D the last 2 years. last year BC had a pretty good D but certainly not Top 10. This year their D stinks. Yet they have the 9th rated D, which totally skews their overall ranking. They really need to adjust their formula.

4. Clemson (4th in Sagarin)
5. Louisville (6)
9. FSU (13)
19. VA Tech (12)
28. USF (34)
30. ND (46)
33. Pitt (41)
39. NC State (36)
67. BC (76)
68. SU (93)
71. Wake (62)
83. UConn (96)
NR Colgate (156)

IMO NC State and BC are inflated because of SOS. Yes there is an adjustment for it but this early in the year it is harder to be accurate. Those two teams will head straight downhill the rest of the way. I still think (baring 44 straight runs up the middle) that we should beat those teams and get to 4-7 going into Pitt, which is unlikely a W but possible.

I don't take much out of the wake forest game but the health of the offensive line is going to be the difference between 2 wins and 4 or 5 at most.

i'm very discouraged about the line injuries and its effect on dungey's decision making

 

[RF2044]

The NC State - ND game is such an outlier in so many ways.

I was hoping to learn a lot from that game. But we learned nothing.

Agreed. The weather wreaked havoc.

I watched most of that game hoping to see what our conditions might be like, and was discouraged by what I saw. I actually think that the field conditions in Winston-Salem were worse than what we contended with.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I don't take much out of the wake forest game but the health of the offensive line is going to be the difference between 2 wins and 4 or 5 at most.

i'm very discouraged about the line injuries and its effect on dungey's decision making

We were able to move the ball vs UConn and ND with the same OL. Not sure why so many here think it is impossible to do so going forward. Why is the OL a major issue now, but wasn't in prior weeks?

 

[Millhouse]

We were able to move the ball vs UConn and ND with the same OL. Not sure why so many here think it is impossible to do so going forward. Why is the OL a major issue now, but wasn't in prior weeks?

they were so bad against wake forest though. hopefully it was an anomaly

 

[NineOneSeven]

they were so bad against wake forest though. hopefully it was an anomaly

I think some had to do with the fact our passing attack was simply capped by weather. They could bring pressure and focus on getting into the pocket because they weren't worried about the long passes. Field was small.

 

[Millhouse]

I think some had to do with the fact our passing attack was simply capped by weather. They could bring pressure and focus on getting into the pocket because they weren't worried about the long passes. Field was small.

teams should do that anyway. give up 175 yards and two scores to etta tawo, who cares, that would be all SU would get.

 

[NineOneSeven]

teams should do that anyway. give up 175 yards and two scores to etta tawo, who cares, that would be all SU would get.

I didn't even care about the loss. I was pissed the weather (and gameplan to an extent) limited Tawo. Keep feeding the guy.

 

[Chip]

they were so bad against wake forest though. hopefully it was an anomaly

Some of it was scheme, so I don't know if it's something Wake picked up in film? There were times where Wake DL were just running free at us, there was no block to beat.

VT is not the team to play if your OL has communication issues or holes in their understanding of technique/assignment. Foster will eat that alive. Need to fix quickly.

 

[Deuga]

I don't believe the WF game result was evidence of which team would win the game most of the time I normal conditions. The weather was a huge disadvantage for our offense. Instead of coming out firing with sharp passes in the usual blitzkrieg fashion that we've seen all season, we had to run the ball. Not our strength at all. I agree with others that we learned nothing from most of the monsoon games this weekend, other than perhaps some players probably didn't want to play in a monsoon.

 

[RF2044]

We were able to move the ball vs UConn and ND with the same OL. Not sure why so many here think it is impossible to do so going forward. Why is the OL a major issue now, but wasn't in prior weeks?

they were so bad against wake forest though. hopefully it was an anomaly

UConn was played in nice, clear conditions where we could sling the ball around. Ditto the game at MetLife. Saturday, we had to try to run the ball more, which isn't our forte [significant understatement].

Although the injury problems began before that UConn game, we've been able to counter that most of the year by having Dungey get rid of the ball swiftly, often before the defense can get to him. That wasn't possible on Saturday. And a big part of why Dungey looked so slow against WF was probably due to the wet field as much as anything.

 

[Chip]

And a big part of why Dungey looked so slow against WF was probably due to the wet field as much as anything.

This is something I've noticed all year. Maybe not when he's out in the open field and up to speed. But when he takes off, he looked quicker to me last year. And it's meant less open field for him to find.

 

[Millhouse]

UConn was played in nice, clear conditions where we could sling the ball around. Ditto the game at MetLife. Saturday, we had to try to run the ball more, which isn't our forte [significant understatement].

Although the injury problems began before that UConn game, we've been able to counter that most of the year by having Dungey get rid of the ball swiftly, often before the defense can get to him. That wasn't possible on Saturday. And a big part of why Dungey looked so slow against WF was probably due to the wet field as much as anything.

not mutually exclusive. wind and rain are bad for us and the offensive line play is more dreadful than I thought. the pass protection stunk too

 

[RF2044]

not mutually exclusive. wind and rain are bad for us and the offensive line play is more dreadful than I thought. the pass protection stunk too

And again, why was that the case? Answer: because we weren't getting the ball out quickly.

The weather impacted our ability to throw quick passes, which made a generally poor offensive line look worse than usual.

 

[Millhouse]

And again, why was that the case? Answer: because we weren't getting the ball out quickly.

The weather impacted our ability to throw quick passes, which made a generally poor offensive line look worse than usual.

i don't think so. i think our offensive line was getting beat incredibly quick.

getting the ball out quick is smart when your line stinks but now i think the line stinks more than I used to

 

[RF2044]

i don't think so. i think our offensive line was getting beat incredibly quick.

getting the ball out quick is smart when your line stinks but now i think the line stinks more than I used to

I do. Simplest explanation is usually right. Frankly, the line has stunk all year. We've masked their inability to pass block effectively by making quick throws to get the ball out generally before the pass rush has time to get to ED.

Since we weren't throwing fast on Saturday, we weren't able to neutralize the pass rush, and they got to Dungey more than our other opponents have. It's not like the OL was doing a bang up job before Saturday, some were just overestimating how good of a job they were doing.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

And again, why was that the case? Answer: because we weren't getting the ball out quickly.

The weather impacted our ability to throw quick passes, which made a generally poor offensive line look worse than usual.

The wind had no impact on our short passes, nor Wake's. The two QBs were a combined 62%. Also on the KOs and Ps none of the returners had difficulty catching the ball. Usually when it is windy they scramble to get under the ball. I don't think the wind was a big factor. I think the wet ball and being forced to throw on 3rd and long is what did us in.

 

[RF2044]

The wind had no impact on our short passes, nor Wake's. The two QBs were a combined 62%. Also on the KOs and Ps none of the returners had difficulty catching the ball. Usually when it is windy they scramble to get under the ball. I don't think the wind was a big factor. I think the wet ball and being forced to throw on 3rd and long is what did us in.

That runs counter to what people who actually attended the game thought, and reported on this forum.

The weather conditions got us away form the type of offense we normally run, at the pace we choose to run it. Do you think we were running the ball more than usual just because?

 

[SU2NASA]

I am not a huge fan of S&P+ but we are ahead in this week's rankings. I don't know what it is about the metric but it loves BC's D the last 2 years. last year BC had a pretty good D but certainly not Top 10. This year their D stinks. Yet they have the 9th rated D, which totally skews their overall ranking. They really need to adjust their formula.

4. Clemson (4th in Sagarin)
5. Louisville (6)
9. FSU (13)
19. VA Tech (12)
28. USF (34)
30. ND (46)
33. Pitt (41)
39. NC State (36)
67. BC (76)
68. SU (93)
71. Wake (62)
83. UConn (96)
NR Colgate (156)

IMO NC State and BC are inflated because of SOS. Yes there is an adjustment for it but this early in the year it is harder to be accurate. Those two teams will head straight downhill the rest of the way. I still think (baring 44 straight runs up the middle) that we should beat those teams and get to 4-7 going into Pitt, which is unlikely a W but possible.

BC's defense last year was phenomenal. Don't let the record fool you. Don Brown is a genius.

 

[Millhouse]

BC's defense last year was phenomenal. Don't let the record fool you. Don Brown is a genius.

bc's defense looks good because their offense is so bad. shut it down after you put 3 pts on the board, why take any risks

 

[HRE Otto IV]

That runs counter to what people who actually attended the game thought, and reported on this forum.

The weather conditions got us away form the type of offense we normally run, at the pace we choose to run it. Do you think we were running the ball more than usual just because?

Like I said the wetness caused an issue IMO more than the wind. Both QBs had accurate passes. The kicks had no issues.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

BC's defense last year was phenomenal. Don't let the record fool you. Don Brown is a genius.

I agree that he is a great DC, but I also think their D was a tad overrated last year. I think they were Top 20, maybe Top 15 but certainly not the 3rd best. Those extra 10-15 spots resulted in the S&P+ ranking BC 67th last year. Their O was so bad that despite their D, they had no business being ranked in the Top 75.

This year they are ranked 9th on D somehow. They are a lot worse on D as shown by VA Tech and Clemson (both good teams but no O juggernauts) both putting up over 475 yards on BC. That gets you ranked 9th?

 

[RF2044]

Like I said the wetness caused an issue IMO more than the wind. Both QBs had accurate passes. The kicks had no issues.

Not sure why that distinction is important, or why you are bringing it up in response to what I posted above. I said weather--never suggested "wind" only. And the weather DID have an impact not just on how we played, but also how other games played in North Carolina unfolded on Saturday, with three teams that like to throw the ball all having their legs sawed off by the conditions.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Not sure why that distinction is important, or why you are bringing it up in response to what I posted above. I said weather--never suggested "wind" only. And the weather DID have an impact on how we played, and how other games played in North Carolina unfolded on Saturday, with three teams that like to throw the ball all had their legs sawed off by the conditions.

The games at UNC and NC State had worse weather by far. Especially vs the 2nd half of our game.

I don't think the conditions were anti short passing. Both teams passed it fine. Part of our game is throwing it down the field. I don't think that was possible because of the wet ball in the first half. The 2nd half we should have at least tried. Especially trailing. It did have an impact but IMO not as great as an impact as your comment is coming across. IMO it wasn't so bad that we had to completely abandon the pass. Our game was a nice day compared to what ND was playing in.

So to go back to your original post, no I don't agree that the weather had an impact on our quick passes since none of our quick passes that we did throw were off the mark.

IMO the coaches overcompensated for the weather.