OT / General Interest - Bubble Watch and Tourney Comments - Week of March 11 (Part 1)

[jncuse]

I'll do the matrix rankings with schedule of today's games first. Since there are a lot of meaningful games today. Then I'll try to come up with my list after that which will be a bit different - its tighter for me since I'm not generally as fixated on NETS as some.

This is based on 35 brackets submitted today (so sample is a bit small). But you can see some real movements yesterday because so many teams had quality wins and due to a bubble buster "Dayton". For example, Indiana St fell from 72% in to 23% in without even playing Seton Hall went from pretty safe at 100%, to now some real concern at 74%. Typically modest wins by Miss St and Texas A&M would solidify things. But they went down a bit.

I don't consider any of the teams below 100% safe, even if they are 95% plus in. Due to a potential AAC bubble buster, and possibly one in the P6, plus many teams playing today with a chance to add something big like Pitt, A&M and Providence. As you can see from yesterday, you can drop quickly.

Florida Atlantic*** 35 (Q2 vs North Texas 5:30)
St. John's 35 (Up from 90% to 100%) (Q1 vs UConn 5:30)
Virginia 34 (Up from 94% to 97%) (Q2 vs NC St 9:30)
Colorado 33 (Up from 85% to 94%) Q1 vs Washington St 10:30)
Miss St 28 (Down from 96% to 80%) (Q1 vs Tennessee 1:00)
New Mexico 27 (Up from 48% to 77%) (Q1 vs Colorado St Midnight)
Seton Hall 26 (Down from 100% to 74%) Done
---------
Providence 11 (Up from 6% to 31%) (Q1 vs Marquette 8:00)
Texas A&M 9 (Down from 48% to 27%) (Q1 vs Kentucky 7:00)
Indiana St 8 (Down from 72% to 23%) Done
Pittsburgh 8 (Up from 7% to 23%) (Q1 vs UNC 7:00)

Wake, Nova and Kansas St are all now down to zero which makes sense. They hard to justify.

*** I have included Florida Atlantic for two reasons. One I am not 100% sold on them as an at-large even though they are a consensus 9 seed per the matrix. But if they do lose, they likely still get in, and then a further seed is taken away.

 

[jncuse]

I know most people don't give much of a care for the bubble when Syracuse is not involved. And that makes total sense and is normal. I'm the abnormal one.

But I have never seen so much going on in terms of key games on a FRIDAY that can really move things this late into conference week. 9 of my 11 bubble teams still playing (7 spots for 11)

 

[jncuse]

Here is the first big mover of the day.
Mississippi St, will get a Q1 win over a #1/#2 seed in Tennessee. Massive win for them.

Miss St 65
Tennessee 48
3 minutes to go

Miss St was in on 80% but for the reasons listed above, could not feel secure at all. This is the signature win they needed.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Typical Ricky Barnes. Always fade him

 

[jncuse]

St. John's loses to UConn. Typically not a big deal for someone at "100%" in per the Matrix at this time of the year to lose to a #1 seed. ( Personally I find there resume a little weak though which is reason for concern from my end).

But there is lots of disturbances going on right now that could impact St. John's.
- Texas A&M up six at the half against UK
- Pitt up two at the half against UNC
- UNT only down 5 at the half against Florida Atlantic.

 

[bpo57]

Usually that is the way. I have always been pro little guy over middle of the pack conference team. But that is not the way they pick em. That is where my misses have tended to be.

Although that one team that got in the 2016 Tournament over some mid-majors that had arguably deserving resumes, seemed to do pretty well.

That seems like a century ago.

 

[jncuse]

1) Pitt loses - I was a little higher on them than the Matrix (They were close to a Colorado and New Mexico to me), but this might be it for them.

2) Texas A&M with a huge win over Kentucky. I had them above the line before this game.. matrix is more mixed. But this win makes things much more plausible for them. They play Florida/Bama tomorrow - win and for sure they are in, lose and ????

3) Florida Atlantic survives and protects the bubble for now, but they are a real bubble buster threat. But they still have to win 2 more games -- interestingly the AAC final is at 3:15 Sunday. If they are in that game, the committee has no choice but to come up with a contingency bracket.

 

[jncuse]

1. Bad timing on that loss for Virginia. They are more likely than not to get in, but they have to feel uneasy. Things they want to happen now - they want Oregon and NC St to lose tomorrow, and New Mexico to lose tonight, and Colorado to lose tonight. Also cheering for Florida Atlantic.

2. Oregon has now rose up as a potential bubble buster tomorrow night after beating Arizona., as has NC St. I don't think either has much of an at-large chance.

3. Providence loses to Marquette. I feel like I'm the only one that sees Providence on par, or just slightly above St. John's. But I'll go with the consensus - they look to be done.

 

[jncuse]

In the late games last night Colorado and New Mexico won which is huge for them.

Before this week, I had said there was 3 NET inflated teams that I wasn't as high on as others, and had them all out as of end of last week... or maybe I had Colorado as last in. I really wasn't fond of Villanova and New Mexico
- Villanova
- Colorado
- New Mexico

Colorado and New Mexico both won again last night and at this point have very likely done what they needed to do to get in.

Colorado beat an NIT level team in Utah and then Washington St last night (A projected 7 seed)
New Mexico won 3 games (2 Q1) -- a chump, then a projected #8 and #9 seed.

 

[jncuse]

So who are the losers this week from the strong bubble play and potential bubble busters.
1. Indiana St.
2. Potentially The ACC Bubble and the Big East Bubble, who didn't do terribly in general, but might just have one of their members squeezed.

This week we have had the following
3 teams around the line make their conference finals (or semi's in the case of A&M)
- Texas A&M just on the outside to start the week(for some, not me) make a run in the SEC - pick up a Q2 and Q1
- Colorado get to the Pac-12 Final (solidifying their resume which was heavily NET based and susceptible)
- New Mexico get to the MWC Final (Solidifying their resume which was heavily NET based)
1 Bubble Buster, with a few more realistic ones as possibilities.
- Dayton lose in the ACC (Bubble Buster)
- Oregon make the Pac-12 FInal (Potential Bubble Buster)
- NC State make the ACC Final (Potential Bubble Buster)
- Florida Atlantic still look very so-so in the AAC but survive with 2 games to go (Potential Bubble Buster)

If I am Virginia with now "2 Q1 Wins" I am worried.

 

[Cuseball]

In the late games last night Colorado and New Mexico won which is huge for them.

Before this week, I had said there was 3 NET inflated teams that I wasn't as high on as others, and had them all out as of end of last week... or maybe I had Colorado as last in. I really wasn't fond of Villanova and New Mexico
- Villanova
- Colorado
- New Mexico

Colorado and New Mexico both won again last night and at this point have very likely done what they needed to do to get in.

Colorado beat an NIT level team in Utah and then Washington St last night (A projected 7 seed)
New Mexico won 3 games (2 Q1) -- a chump, then a projected #8 and #9 seed.

I think Virginia is in a lot of trouble. Seton Hall wil

So who are the losers this week from the strong bubble play and potential bubble busters.
1. Indiana St.
2. Potentially The ACC Bubble and the Big East Bubble, who didn't do terribly in general, but might just have one of their members squeezed.

This week we have had the following
3 teams around the line make their conference finals (or semi's in the case of A&M)
- Texas A&M just on the outside to start the week(for some, not me) make a run in the SEC - pick up a Q2 and Q1
- Colorado get to the Pac-12 Final (solidifying their resume which was heavily NET based and susceptible)
- New Mexico get to the MWC Final (Solidifying their resume which was heavily NET based)
1 Bubble Buster, with a few more realistic ones as possibilities.
- Dayton lose in the ACC (Bubble Buster)
- Oregon make the Pac-12 FInal (Potential Bubble Buster)
- NC State make the ACC Final (Potential Bubble Buster)
- Florida Atlantic still look very so-so in the AAC but survive with 2 games to go (Potential Bubble Buster)

If I am Virginia with now "2 Q1 Wins" I am worried.

great stuff! Thanks for doing this again. I agree and think Virginia is in a lot of trouble and likely out. Seton Hall and St. John’s will be sweating heavily and if any of those bubble busters come through one or both are out. Last year the 5th place ACC team got left out and this year the 3rd, 4th and 5th could be passed over. We really need to do our damage next year in non conference to avoid sweating.

Cuse

 

[JaySU22]

1. Bad timing on that loss for Virginia. They are more likely than not to get in, but they have to feel uneasy. Things they want to happen now - they want Oregon and NC St to lose tomorrow, and New Mexico to lose tonight, and Colorado to lose tonight. Also cheering for Florida Atlantic.

2. Oregon has now rose up as a potential bubble buster tomorrow night after beating Arizona., as has NC St. I don't think either has much of an at-large chance.

3. Providence loses to Marquette. I feel like I'm the only one that sees Providence on par, or just slightly above St. John's. But I'll go with the consensus - they look to be done.

PC having 6 quad 1 wins is a strength but a combined 9-13 Q1/Q2 isn’t good and 11 Q4 wins adds a lot of fluff. So in a strong bubble I think they’re clearly out, but props to their coaching staff for keeping them in contention after losing their stud player.

 

[sufan59]

So who are the losers this week from the strong bubble play and potential bubble busters.
1. Indiana St.
2. Potentially The ACC Bubble and the Big East Bubble, who didn't do terribly in general, but might just have one of their members squeezed.

This week we have had the following
3 teams around the line make their conference finals (or semi's in the case of A&M)
- Texas A&M just on the outside to start the week(for some, not me) make a run in the SEC - pick up a Q2 and Q1
- Colorado get to the Pac-12 Final (solidifying their resume which was heavily NET based and susceptible)
- New Mexico get to the MWC Final (Solidifying their resume which was heavily NET based)
1 Bubble Buster, with a few more realistic ones as possibilities.
- Dayton lose in the ACC (Bubble Buster)
- Oregon make the Pac-12 FInal (Potential Bubble Buster)
- NC State make the ACC Final (Potential Bubble Buster)
- Florida Atlantic still look very so-so in the AAC but survive with 2 games to go (Potential Bubble Buster)

If I am Virginia with now "2 Q1 Wins" I am worried.

To put in perspective on Virginia. Right now team rankings has us with a better chance of an NCAA tournament bid (17%) (that is up btw from 6% yesterday) vs 11% for Virginia.

 

[sufan59]

PC having 6 quad 1 wins is a strength but a combined 9-13 Q1/Q2 isn’t good and 11 Q4 wins adds a lot of fluff. So in a strong bubble I think they’re clearly out, but props to their coaching staff for keeping them in contention after losing their stud player.

There is still a few scenarios that can play out today and tomorrow with teams that we beat in the conference tourney. Every now and then there is a complete wth team (Our 2016 and 2018 bids were controversial, but not complete wth, we were a regular in the last 4 in-next 4 out category) that gets an at large bid. Our resume as of late has been aging pretty well.

 

[jncuse]

PC having 6 quad 1 wins is a strength but a combined 9-13 Q1/Q2 isn’t good and 11 Q4 wins adds a lot of fluff. So in a strong bubble I think they’re clearly out, but props to their coaching staff for keeping them in contention after losing their stud player.

I'm higher on Providence's resume than most (as I mentioned last week) - especially when I compare them to St. John's -- but they probably get squeezed out.

-------


So here is my updated bubble line entering today - with 3 potential bubble busters still lurking (Oregon, NC St, AAC). It's a really tough one to decipher, so I might change my opinion in a few hours!

I'll use the same 11 for 7 spots as yesterday.

(Probably safe)
Mississippi St
Florida Atlantic **

(One of these 6 teams are out, before any bubble busters - to me its either Virginia or New Mexico, but Texas A&M could also get dinged for the 5 Q3 losses)
Colorado
Seton Hall
Texas A&M
St John's
In - Virginia
Out - New Mexico

(these 3 teams are out, but I wouldn't be stunned if Providence or Pitt sneaks in... IF There are no more bubble busters. Indiana St is a SOL)
Out - Providence
Out - Pitt
Out - Indiana St

** I think Florida Atlantic might get squeezed out if they lose today. Not as high on them as the matrix

 

[jncuse]

There is still a few scenarios that can play out today and tomorrow with teams that we beat in the conference tourney. Every now and then there is a complete wth team (Our 2016 and 2018 bids were controversial, but not complete wth, we were a regular in the last 4 in-next 4 out category) that gets an at large bid. Our resume as of late has been aging pretty well.

Except that we lost the only game we played .. and the majority of the bubble has been playing really well since we played.

Our standing amongst the bubble isn't aging good when some bubble teams did a lot like A&M, Colorado, New Mexico, Miss St, and others with nice wins like Providence, Pitt and St. John's.

Sure if NC St and Oregon St win today it will make our resume look a little better - but they also take up 2 spots themselves.

I don't like to be that guy, but we have no chance - even Tulsa in 2016, the biggest WTH pick made by the committee that I can remember, would be a far less "WTH" pick than we would be.

 

[sufan59]

Except that we lost the only game we played .. and the majority of the bubble has been playing really well.

Our standing amongst the bubble isn't aging good when some bubble teams did a lot like A&M, Colorado, New Mexico, Miss St, and others with nice wins like Providence, Pitt and St. John's.

Sure if NC St and Oregon St win today it will make our resume look a little better - but they also take up 2 spots themselves.

I don't like to be that guy, but we have no chance - even Tulsa in 2016, the biggest WTH pick made by the committee that I can remember, would be a far less "WTH" pick than we would be.

Yep that Tulsa team came to mind as well lol.

 

[jncuse]

Yep that Tulsa team came to mind as well lol.

I know from the matrix perspective they had 1 out of 144. I don't think anybody else has had less than 10% that got in.

I did want to take a look at their resume vs other "misses" that year to see if my statement was actually accurate (that we would be even more WTH), but unfortunately I can't find the 2016 comparative data from Warren Nolan or anybody else.

 

[JaySU22]

Except that we lost the only game we played .. and the majority of the bubble has been playing really well since we played.

Our standing amongst the bubble isn't aging good when some bubble teams did a lot like A&M, Colorado, New Mexico, Miss St, and others with nice wins like Providence, Pitt and St. John's.

Sure if NC St and Oregon St win today it will make our resume look a little better - but they also take up 2 spots themselves.

I don't like to be that guy, but we have no chance - even Tulsa in 2016, the biggest WTH pick made by the committee that I can remember, would be a far less "WTH" pick than we would be.

We definitely didn’t beat enough good teams to have a legit case.

But man we were doomed by our schedule in a way. Heading into ACCT I believe just 4 of our 16 Q1/Q2 games was at home. 9 on the road 3 neutral, 2 of the neutral were ofc super early in year with a young team and a new HC.

 

[jncuse]

If you are a Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John's, Providence or Pitt fan, and on the sidelines, here are the games that matter for you today. 6 games that still matter by Saturday is a lot for Conference Tourney Week. (some might argue its 5 because Miss St is in the clear)

• Miss St vs Auburn (1:00)... Miss St is probably safe, but that 8-10 SEC record may be used against them. So hope they lose.
• Texas A&M vs Florida (3:30) ... Texas A&M has 7 Q1 wins, is 13-8 Q1 vs Q2, but has an amazing 5 bad losses (Q3). Personally I think the good outweighs the bad, but who knows.
• Temple vs Florida Atlantic (5:30) ... AAC Semi's... you want Florida Atlantic to win to avoid a bubble buster. That being said if Florida Atlantic loses I am not convinced that they are a lock. They probably get in, but maybe not. 2-2 in Q1, 9-5 in Q1+Q2 (very good), but this would be their 3rd bad loss... potentially all Q4 (temple is 198)... those are 3 bad losses.
• New Mexico vs San Diego St (6;00) - MWC Title Game. Here is the thing with New Mexico ... even with 2 Q1 wins this week, they are still just 4-6 in Q1, 7-7 in Q1+Q2, and have a Q3 and Q4 loss. I have no clue how people had them in before this week (despite a NET around 25). Now it looks much more solid as Q1 at 4-6 instead of 2-7 or 3-7 (had they lost). They could still be out with a loss.
• NC St vs UNC (8:30). NC St wins and they steal a bid.
• Oregon vs Colorado (9;00) Colorado is a fellow bubble team, but worse scenario is Oregon wins the automatic and then Colorado also gets an at-large.

 

[jncuse]

We definitely didn’t beat enough good teams to have a legit case.

But man we were doomed by our schedule in a way. Heading into ACCT I believe just 4 of our 16 Q1/Q2 games was at home. 9 on the road 3 neutral, 2 of the neutral were ofc super early in year with a young team and a new HC.

The extensions of the Q1/Q2 ranges for road games do a decent job of adjusting for that.

That being said the perception is still that beating #25 at home (a tourney team) is much more valuable better than #60 (a non tourney team) on the road. And they do seem to value wins over tourney teams more. When in fact they are similar difficulty.

I believe Syracuse does have a very favourable schedule next year from what I heard.

 

[jncuse]

Just checking the scores for the day. Wow, what a disaster for a team like Virginia …

Looks like we have three bubble busters on a single day .. unheard of .. nc, st, Oregon, and florifa Atlantic via losing.

Add Dayton I don’t think there has been 4 bubble busters in tourney week in a long long time.

 

[orangecuse]

FWIW, Lunardi now has UVA out. Really goes to show you and just more proof in the pudding on how weak the ACC was this year when its tournament 3 seed is unlikely to make the Dance.

 

[jncuse]

Just checking the scores for the day. Wow, what a disaster for a team like Virginia …

Looks like we have three bubble busters on a single day .. unheard of .. nc, st, Oregon, and florifa Atlantic via losing.

Add Dayton I don’t think there has been 4 bubble busters in tourney week in a long long time.

Now that I think about it, I personally believe that New Mexico was also well out before the started (matrix had them as first out).

So you could argue there was 5 bubble busters this week. An insane number.
Even if we had beat NC State and Duke we had no shot with everything that happened this week.

 

[jncuse]

With all the craziness of today and this week, there are now a few new teams that really weren't discussed as problematic entering the week who could be in trouble - Michigan St, Oklahoma and Florida Atlantic (although I targeted them).

Time to go sleep, got back home late - will look at it tomorrow.