SWC75
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I heard a radio discussion about whether Zion Williamson would prove to be the best player in this year's draft. It made me wonder which level of the draft had produced the most productive players in past drafts. I went to Basketball Reference.com:
1947 BAA Draft | Basketball-Reference.com
My point of reference was career "net points": points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks + field goals made – field goals attempted plus free throws made minus free throws attempted minus turnovers minus personal fouls. When not all those numbers are available I just used the elements of the formula that are. Most of the time all i needed was a "look" test: if a player played in the most games and most minutes by a significant margin, he was obviously the guy unless there was a huge difference in production. A look at average points, rebounds and assists would determine that. When it was close, I actually did the "net points" math.
There were various complications: in the earliest drafts the basketball Association of America and the National Basketball League held combined drafts, (somehow Jim Pollard was drafted three times in the first one). Then they basically merged to form the NBA, (yes the draft precedes the NBA). For many years they would have territorial picks, not every year and not for everyone, before the draft, feeling that local heroes would put fans in the stands. I had to do some guess work at where the "territorials" would have been picked. Then in the ABA era, NBA teams would sometimes use a low draft pick on ABA stars in case they could later be convinced to jump over to the NBA. Thus you had some great players with astonishing low draft picks, (Artis Gilmore was the most productive player one year as a 115th draft choice.) In those cases I used the most productive player that the NBA team expected to contribute immediately. Other than that I stuck to the look test and net points, with one notable exception, (1984).
1947 Harry Gallatin was drafted 12th
1948 Dolph Schayes was drafted 4th
1949 Dick McGuire was drafted 7th after Vern Mikkelsen and Ed Macauley were taken as “territorial” picks. Both were more productive than McGuire. Mccauley had the best numbers and collegiate career.
1950 Bob Cousy was drafted 3rd after Paul Arizin was taken as a territorial pick. Arizin had a great career both in college and the pros but was a bit short of Cousy. But I remember that Auerbach originally didn’t want Cousy.
1951 Mel Hutchins was drafted 2nd after Whitey Skoog was taken as a territorial pick. Hutchins was more productive than Skoog.
1952 Clyde Lovelette was drafted 9th after Bill Mlkvy was taken as a territorial pick. Lovelette was far more productive.
1953 Cliff Hagan was drafted 11th after Walter Dukes and Ernie Beck were taken as territorial picks. Hagan was better than Dukes or beck but he was in the service. Red Auerbach traded the rights to him and Ed Macauley to St. Louis for Bill Russell. Duke was, by a small margin, the most productive player available to play immediately and, being a 7 footer with a strong college career, would probably have been the #1 draft choice had he not been a territorial pick.
1954 Bob Pettit was drafted 2nd
1955 Jack Twyman was drafted 8th after Dick Garmaker and Tom Gola were taken as territorial picks. Twyman was more productive that either but I think Gola would have bene the #1 choice had there been no territorial picks. Garmaker was well behind either.
1956 Bill Russell was drafted 2nd after Tom Heinsohn was taken as a territorial pick. Heinsohn was a popular guy in Boston but Auerbach would have drafted Russell before him had there been no territorial pick.
1957 Sam Jones was drafted 8th
1958 Eligin Baylor was drafted 1st after Guy Rodgers was taken as a territorial pick. Rodgers would not have been picked ahead of him.
1959 Bailey Howell was drafted 2nd after Wilt Chamberlain and Bob Ferry were taken as territorial picks. Chamberlain would obviously have been the #1 pick had he not been a territorial pick. Howell would have been taken over Ferry.
1960 Oscar Robertson was drafted 1st
1961 Walt Bellamy was drafted 1st
1962 John Havlicek was drafted 7th after Jerry Lucas and Dave DeBusschere were taken as territorial picks. Lucas would surely have been the #1 pick. Havlicek probably would have been taken ahead of DeBusschere.
1963 Nate Thurmond was drafted 3rd after Tom Thacker was taken as a territorial pick. I doubt Tacker would have been taken over Thurmond.
1964 Paul Silas was drafted 10th after George Wilson and Walt Hazzard were taken as territorial picks. Silas was not well-known and both Wilson, (a similar player who played for high-profile Cincinnati teams), and Hazzard would probably have bene taken ahead of him.
1965 Rick Barry was drafted #2 after Bill Buntin, Gail Goodrich and Bill Bradley were taken as territorial picks. Barry would probably have bene taken over them, although I’m not sure about Bradley. Barry certainly turned out to be the best player.
1966 Dave Bing was drafted 2nd
1967 Walt Frazier was drafted 5th
1968 Elvin Hayes was drafted 1st
1969 Lew Alcindor, (he became Kareem Abdul Jabbar in 1971) was drafted 1st
1970 Bob Lanier was drafted #1
1971 Artis Gilmore was drafted 117th. The ABA had already signed him so the Bulls were just trying to secure his NBA rights if he ever switched leagues, as he eventually did – and played for the Bulls. Spencer Haywood was drafted by the Buffalo braves, despite the fact that he was playing for the Seattle Supersonics. The Sonic’s owner had field lawsuit against the league and Buffalo figured his rights might be up for grabs. The best legitimate draft choice was Sidney Wicks, who was drafted 2nd.
1972 Julius Erving was drafted 12th by Milwaukee. He’d already been an ABA star and signed with the Hawks to play in the NBA before the draft so it was a other team protecting their rights to an established star should he become available in the future. He wound up staying in the ABA until it folded in 1976 and then became a Philadelphia 76er. The best legitimate draft pick was Bob McAdoo, drafted 2nd by the Braves.
1973 Caldwell Jones was drafted 32nd It was a weak draft.
1974 George Gervin was drafted 40th by the Suns. Tt was another attempt to secure rights to an ABA player for the future. Maurice Lucas was drafted 14th. He chose the ABA but had not previous played there.
1975 Alan Adams was drafted 4th
1976 Robert Parish was drafted 8th
1977 Jack Sikma was drafted 8th
1978 Larry Bird was drafted 6th He chose to remain in college another year and could have declared for the 1979 draft except Red Auerbach was able to sign him. It’s possible that other teams shied away from Bird as he still had a year of college eligibility but of course his stock rose dramatically after that final year. None of the players ahead of him in this draft were nearly as productive.
1979 Magic Johnson was drafted 1st
1980 Kevin McHale was drafted 3rd
1981 Buck Williams was drafted 3rd
1982 Dominique Wilkins was drafted 3rd
1983 Clyde Drexler was drafted 14th
1984 Hakeem Olajuwon (29,254 net points) was drafted #1. Michael Jordan (28,507 NP) was drafted #3. If Michael hadn’t had his baseball sojourn not only would Hakeem not be #1 but he probably would have those two titles anymore, either.
1985 Karl Malone was drafted #13
1986 Jeff Hornacek (15,568 NP), drafted at 46th, beats out Dennis Rodman (13,745 NP)
1987 #1 David Robinson (23,794 NP) beats out Reggie Miller (20,220 NP) and Scottie Pippen (19,642 NP)
1988 Rod Strickland, a guard who played until age 38, was drafted 19th and outlasted everyone else in a mediocre draft.
1989 Vlade Divac was drafted #26, accumulated 16,512 NP (Shawn Kemp had 14,483 and Tim Hardaway 14,224) and is no longer irritating.
1990 Gary Payton was drafted 2nd
1991 Dikembe Mutombo was drafted 4th
1992 Shaquille O'Neal was drafted 1st
1993 Chris Webber was dafter 1st
1994 Jason Kidd was drafted 2nd
1995 Kevin Garnett was drafted 5th
1996 Kobe Bryant was drafted 13th
1997 Tim Duncan was drafted 1st
1998 Dirk Nowitzki was drafted 9th
1999 Shawn Marion was drafted 9th
2000 Jamal Crawford was drafted 8th Another good player with a long career who outlasted a mediocre draft.
2001 Pau Gasol was drafted #3
2002 Carlos Boozer (14,520 NP) was drafted 35th but beat out #9 Amar'e Stoudemire (14,328)
2003 LeBron James was drafted 1st. By the way, Darko Milicic had 2,651 NP to 18,769 NP for Carmelo Anthony. (LeBron has 32,372)
2004 Dwight Howard was drafted 1st
2005 Chris Paul was drafted 4th
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge was drafted 2nd
2007 Kevin Durant was drafted 2nd
2008 Russell Westbrook was drafted 4th
2009 James Harden, (16,351 NP) was drafted 3rd. Steph Curry, (15, 038 NP) was drafted 7th.
2010 DeMarcus Cousins (11,177 NP) was drafted 6th and just beat out #1 John Wall (10,683 NP) and #10 Paul George (10,252 NP)
2011 Kemba Walker (10,167 NP) was drafted #9 and beat out Nikola Vucevic (9,826 NP), Kyrie Irving (9,372 NP), Jimmy Butler (8,713 NP), Kawhi Leonard (8,651 NP) and Klay Thompson (8,545 NP).
2012 Anthony Davis was drafted #1
2013 Giannis Antetokounmpo was drafted 15th
2014 Andrew Wiggins was drafted 1st, although Joel Embiid, (#3), has proven to be a better player once he finally got to play.
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns was drafted 1st
2016 Ben Simmons was drafted 1st
2017 Donovan Mitchell, (2,327 NP), was drafted 13th beating out #3 Jayson Tatum (2,152 NP).
2018 Luka Doncic (1,417 NP) was drafted 3rd beating out #1 Deandre Ayton (1,397 NP) and #5 Trae Young (1,340 NP).
Some calls I had to make:
For 1949, I’ll treat Macauley as the #1 draft choice and he had the most successful career.
For 1950, I’ll treat Cousy as the #4 draft pick.
For 1951 I’ll keep Hutchins as #2.
For 1952, since Lovelette wasn’t drafted until the 9th pick and the Warriors, even if they had no territorial pick, would have drafted Mlkvy before the Lakers had a pick, I’ll put Clyde in the #10 spot.
For 1953, I’ll treat Dukes as a #1 draft choice.
For 1955, I’ll treat Tywman as the #9 draft choice.
For 1956, I’ll treat Bill Russell as the #2 draft choice.
For 1958, I’ll treat Elgin Baylor as the #1 draft choice
For 1959, I’ll treat Wilt Chamberlain as the #1 draft choice
For 1962, I’ll treat John Havlicek as the #8 draft choice
For 1963, I’ll treat Nate Thurmond as the #3 draft choice
For 1964, I’ll treat Paul Silas as the #12 draft choice
For 1965, I’ll treat Rick Barry as the #2 draft choice
For 1971, I’ll use Sidney Wicks as the #2 draft choice
For 1972, I’ll use Bob McAdoo as the #2 draft choice
For 1978 I’ll use Larry Bird as the #6 draft choice
For 1984, how can you not say that Michael Jordan, (#3) was the most productive player?
By my count, the most productive players has been drafted…
#1- 20 times
#2- 12 times
#3- 7 times
#4- 6 times
#5- 2 times
#6- 2 times
#7- not yet
#8- 5 times
#9- 4 times
#10- 1 time
#11- not yet
#12- 2 times
#13- 3 times
#14- 2 times
#15- 1 time
And #19, #26, #32, #35 and #46 one time each.
1947 BAA Draft | Basketball-Reference.com
My point of reference was career "net points": points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks + field goals made – field goals attempted plus free throws made minus free throws attempted minus turnovers minus personal fouls. When not all those numbers are available I just used the elements of the formula that are. Most of the time all i needed was a "look" test: if a player played in the most games and most minutes by a significant margin, he was obviously the guy unless there was a huge difference in production. A look at average points, rebounds and assists would determine that. When it was close, I actually did the "net points" math.
There were various complications: in the earliest drafts the basketball Association of America and the National Basketball League held combined drafts, (somehow Jim Pollard was drafted three times in the first one). Then they basically merged to form the NBA, (yes the draft precedes the NBA). For many years they would have territorial picks, not every year and not for everyone, before the draft, feeling that local heroes would put fans in the stands. I had to do some guess work at where the "territorials" would have been picked. Then in the ABA era, NBA teams would sometimes use a low draft pick on ABA stars in case they could later be convinced to jump over to the NBA. Thus you had some great players with astonishing low draft picks, (Artis Gilmore was the most productive player one year as a 115th draft choice.) In those cases I used the most productive player that the NBA team expected to contribute immediately. Other than that I stuck to the look test and net points, with one notable exception, (1984).
1947 Harry Gallatin was drafted 12th
1948 Dolph Schayes was drafted 4th
1949 Dick McGuire was drafted 7th after Vern Mikkelsen and Ed Macauley were taken as “territorial” picks. Both were more productive than McGuire. Mccauley had the best numbers and collegiate career.
1950 Bob Cousy was drafted 3rd after Paul Arizin was taken as a territorial pick. Arizin had a great career both in college and the pros but was a bit short of Cousy. But I remember that Auerbach originally didn’t want Cousy.
1951 Mel Hutchins was drafted 2nd after Whitey Skoog was taken as a territorial pick. Hutchins was more productive than Skoog.
1952 Clyde Lovelette was drafted 9th after Bill Mlkvy was taken as a territorial pick. Lovelette was far more productive.
1953 Cliff Hagan was drafted 11th after Walter Dukes and Ernie Beck were taken as territorial picks. Hagan was better than Dukes or beck but he was in the service. Red Auerbach traded the rights to him and Ed Macauley to St. Louis for Bill Russell. Duke was, by a small margin, the most productive player available to play immediately and, being a 7 footer with a strong college career, would probably have been the #1 draft choice had he not been a territorial pick.
1954 Bob Pettit was drafted 2nd
1955 Jack Twyman was drafted 8th after Dick Garmaker and Tom Gola were taken as territorial picks. Twyman was more productive that either but I think Gola would have bene the #1 choice had there been no territorial picks. Garmaker was well behind either.
1956 Bill Russell was drafted 2nd after Tom Heinsohn was taken as a territorial pick. Heinsohn was a popular guy in Boston but Auerbach would have drafted Russell before him had there been no territorial pick.
1957 Sam Jones was drafted 8th
1958 Eligin Baylor was drafted 1st after Guy Rodgers was taken as a territorial pick. Rodgers would not have been picked ahead of him.
1959 Bailey Howell was drafted 2nd after Wilt Chamberlain and Bob Ferry were taken as territorial picks. Chamberlain would obviously have been the #1 pick had he not been a territorial pick. Howell would have been taken over Ferry.
1960 Oscar Robertson was drafted 1st
1961 Walt Bellamy was drafted 1st
1962 John Havlicek was drafted 7th after Jerry Lucas and Dave DeBusschere were taken as territorial picks. Lucas would surely have been the #1 pick. Havlicek probably would have been taken ahead of DeBusschere.
1963 Nate Thurmond was drafted 3rd after Tom Thacker was taken as a territorial pick. I doubt Tacker would have been taken over Thurmond.
1964 Paul Silas was drafted 10th after George Wilson and Walt Hazzard were taken as territorial picks. Silas was not well-known and both Wilson, (a similar player who played for high-profile Cincinnati teams), and Hazzard would probably have bene taken ahead of him.
1965 Rick Barry was drafted #2 after Bill Buntin, Gail Goodrich and Bill Bradley were taken as territorial picks. Barry would probably have bene taken over them, although I’m not sure about Bradley. Barry certainly turned out to be the best player.
1966 Dave Bing was drafted 2nd
1967 Walt Frazier was drafted 5th
1968 Elvin Hayes was drafted 1st
1969 Lew Alcindor, (he became Kareem Abdul Jabbar in 1971) was drafted 1st
1970 Bob Lanier was drafted #1
1971 Artis Gilmore was drafted 117th. The ABA had already signed him so the Bulls were just trying to secure his NBA rights if he ever switched leagues, as he eventually did – and played for the Bulls. Spencer Haywood was drafted by the Buffalo braves, despite the fact that he was playing for the Seattle Supersonics. The Sonic’s owner had field lawsuit against the league and Buffalo figured his rights might be up for grabs. The best legitimate draft choice was Sidney Wicks, who was drafted 2nd.
1972 Julius Erving was drafted 12th by Milwaukee. He’d already been an ABA star and signed with the Hawks to play in the NBA before the draft so it was a other team protecting their rights to an established star should he become available in the future. He wound up staying in the ABA until it folded in 1976 and then became a Philadelphia 76er. The best legitimate draft pick was Bob McAdoo, drafted 2nd by the Braves.
1973 Caldwell Jones was drafted 32nd It was a weak draft.
1974 George Gervin was drafted 40th by the Suns. Tt was another attempt to secure rights to an ABA player for the future. Maurice Lucas was drafted 14th. He chose the ABA but had not previous played there.
1975 Alan Adams was drafted 4th
1976 Robert Parish was drafted 8th
1977 Jack Sikma was drafted 8th
1978 Larry Bird was drafted 6th He chose to remain in college another year and could have declared for the 1979 draft except Red Auerbach was able to sign him. It’s possible that other teams shied away from Bird as he still had a year of college eligibility but of course his stock rose dramatically after that final year. None of the players ahead of him in this draft were nearly as productive.
1979 Magic Johnson was drafted 1st
1980 Kevin McHale was drafted 3rd
1981 Buck Williams was drafted 3rd
1982 Dominique Wilkins was drafted 3rd
1983 Clyde Drexler was drafted 14th
1984 Hakeem Olajuwon (29,254 net points) was drafted #1. Michael Jordan (28,507 NP) was drafted #3. If Michael hadn’t had his baseball sojourn not only would Hakeem not be #1 but he probably would have those two titles anymore, either.
1985 Karl Malone was drafted #13
1986 Jeff Hornacek (15,568 NP), drafted at 46th, beats out Dennis Rodman (13,745 NP)
1987 #1 David Robinson (23,794 NP) beats out Reggie Miller (20,220 NP) and Scottie Pippen (19,642 NP)
1988 Rod Strickland, a guard who played until age 38, was drafted 19th and outlasted everyone else in a mediocre draft.
1989 Vlade Divac was drafted #26, accumulated 16,512 NP (Shawn Kemp had 14,483 and Tim Hardaway 14,224) and is no longer irritating.
1990 Gary Payton was drafted 2nd
1991 Dikembe Mutombo was drafted 4th
1992 Shaquille O'Neal was drafted 1st
1993 Chris Webber was dafter 1st
1994 Jason Kidd was drafted 2nd
1995 Kevin Garnett was drafted 5th
1996 Kobe Bryant was drafted 13th
1997 Tim Duncan was drafted 1st
1998 Dirk Nowitzki was drafted 9th
1999 Shawn Marion was drafted 9th
2000 Jamal Crawford was drafted 8th Another good player with a long career who outlasted a mediocre draft.
2001 Pau Gasol was drafted #3
2002 Carlos Boozer (14,520 NP) was drafted 35th but beat out #9 Amar'e Stoudemire (14,328)
2003 LeBron James was drafted 1st. By the way, Darko Milicic had 2,651 NP to 18,769 NP for Carmelo Anthony. (LeBron has 32,372)
2004 Dwight Howard was drafted 1st
2005 Chris Paul was drafted 4th
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge was drafted 2nd
2007 Kevin Durant was drafted 2nd
2008 Russell Westbrook was drafted 4th
2009 James Harden, (16,351 NP) was drafted 3rd. Steph Curry, (15, 038 NP) was drafted 7th.
2010 DeMarcus Cousins (11,177 NP) was drafted 6th and just beat out #1 John Wall (10,683 NP) and #10 Paul George (10,252 NP)
2011 Kemba Walker (10,167 NP) was drafted #9 and beat out Nikola Vucevic (9,826 NP), Kyrie Irving (9,372 NP), Jimmy Butler (8,713 NP), Kawhi Leonard (8,651 NP) and Klay Thompson (8,545 NP).
2012 Anthony Davis was drafted #1
2013 Giannis Antetokounmpo was drafted 15th
2014 Andrew Wiggins was drafted 1st, although Joel Embiid, (#3), has proven to be a better player once he finally got to play.
2015 Karl-Anthony Towns was drafted 1st
2016 Ben Simmons was drafted 1st
2017 Donovan Mitchell, (2,327 NP), was drafted 13th beating out #3 Jayson Tatum (2,152 NP).
2018 Luka Doncic (1,417 NP) was drafted 3rd beating out #1 Deandre Ayton (1,397 NP) and #5 Trae Young (1,340 NP).
Some calls I had to make:
For 1949, I’ll treat Macauley as the #1 draft choice and he had the most successful career.
For 1950, I’ll treat Cousy as the #4 draft pick.
For 1951 I’ll keep Hutchins as #2.
For 1952, since Lovelette wasn’t drafted until the 9th pick and the Warriors, even if they had no territorial pick, would have drafted Mlkvy before the Lakers had a pick, I’ll put Clyde in the #10 spot.
For 1953, I’ll treat Dukes as a #1 draft choice.
For 1955, I’ll treat Tywman as the #9 draft choice.
For 1956, I’ll treat Bill Russell as the #2 draft choice.
For 1958, I’ll treat Elgin Baylor as the #1 draft choice
For 1959, I’ll treat Wilt Chamberlain as the #1 draft choice
For 1962, I’ll treat John Havlicek as the #8 draft choice
For 1963, I’ll treat Nate Thurmond as the #3 draft choice
For 1964, I’ll treat Paul Silas as the #12 draft choice
For 1965, I’ll treat Rick Barry as the #2 draft choice
For 1971, I’ll use Sidney Wicks as the #2 draft choice
For 1972, I’ll use Bob McAdoo as the #2 draft choice
For 1978 I’ll use Larry Bird as the #6 draft choice
For 1984, how can you not say that Michael Jordan, (#3) was the most productive player?
By my count, the most productive players has been drafted…
#1- 20 times
#2- 12 times
#3- 7 times
#4- 6 times
#5- 2 times
#6- 2 times
#7- not yet
#8- 5 times
#9- 4 times
#10- 1 time
#11- not yet
#12- 2 times
#13- 3 times
#14- 2 times
#15- 1 time
And #19, #26, #32, #35 and #46 one time each.
