Winning Plays 2016- South Florida

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field positon is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1r means first down running plays. 1p means first down passing plays, etc.

 

[SWC75]

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: SF 35, SF 25, SF 25, SF28, SF 25
Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 2
P: 37 to SU 41, 32 to SF 12, 83TD, 40 to SF 11, 47 SF 22
Total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 2
FG: Good from 40, Good from 48
Total: Syracuse 2 South Florida 0
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 2 South Florida 0

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 10 South Florida 4

1r: 8, 2, 1, 4, 3, 4, 6, 4S, 9, 0, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5, 3, 3, 10, 0, 4, 1, 5, 3, 3, 8
Total: Syracuse 11 South Florida 14
1p: I, I, 0, 47TD, 8, I, Interception, 5, 30, I, I, 2, 5, I, 4, I
Total: Syracuse 7 South Florida 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 18 South Florida 24
2r: 7(2), 10(8), 1, -5, 4, 0, 3(2), 1(6), 2(1), 6, 3(7), 4(8), 2(9), 3S, 7, 3(7), 1, 4(5), 0
Total: Syracuse 9 South Florida 9
2p: I, 4(6), 8(7), 19(6), 14(8), 20(15), I, I, I, 7, 5, 17(24), Interception
Total: Syracuse 8 South Florida 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 17 South Florida 14
3r: 3(2), 1, 1(5), 0, 2(7), 7S(7), 2, 6(8)
Total: Syracuse 2 South Florida 6
3p: 9, 24TD, 30(6), I, 5(4), 8S, 4(4), I, 5(4), 9(3), 8(4), 9, 3(1), 15(3), I, 25(7), I
Total: Syracuse 13 South Florida 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 15 South Florida 10
4r: 1(1), -1
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 1
4p: 7(4), I, Fumble
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 2
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 South Florida 3

Total on running plays: Syracuse 23 South Florida 30
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 29 South Florida 21
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 52 South Florida 51

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -5, -5, -3, -5, -10, +15, -10 Syracuse 2 South Florida 7

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 64 South Florida 62

Comments: We ran a lot of plays on offense but ‘won’ only 50.5% of them. Besides the three turnovers, three times we didn’t make it on fourth down, (which is a turnover) and the 10 penalties were 14 first down running plays that gained three yards or less and 20 more on subsequent downs as well as 18 incomplete passes. We did have a dozen plays that went 10 yards or more but only five of them got to 20 yards and only one was more than 30.

When SOUTH FLORIDA had the ball:

KO: SU 21, SU 19, SU 21, SU 41, SU 25, SU 24, SU 30, SU 16
Total: Syracuse 2 South Florida 6
P: 44 SU 8, 35 SU 24, 40 SU 10, 53 SU 13, 46 SU 11, 39 SU 13
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 5
FG: Good from 42
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 6

Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 South Florida 18

1r: 5, -5, 40, 8, 1, 2TD, 12, 11, 19TD, -2V, 5, 4, 1, -6, 4, -2V
Total: Syracuse 4 South Florida 12
1p: 8, I, 11, 18, I, 20, I, 15, I, 31, I, -6S, 33, 4, I
Total: Syracuse 7 South Florida 8
First Down Total: Syracuse 11 South Florida 20
2r: 2(2), 3, 7(15), 7, 9TD, 1, 6(9), 7, 15(16), 2(16), 7(6), -1, -2V
Total: Syracuse 4 South Florida 8
2p: I, I, 15(9), I, 1(5), 28(6)
Total: Syracuse 4 South Florida 2
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 South Florida 10
3r: 12(10), 2(3), 4(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 South Florida 2
3p: I, 4(5), I, 27TD, I, I, 7(3), 8(14), I
Total: Syracuse 7 South Florida 2
Third Down Total: Syracuse 8 South Florida 4
4r: 52TD
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 South Florida 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 9 South Florida 23
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 South Florida 12
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 27 South Florida 35

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5 Syracuse 1 South Florida 1

Game total when SOUTH FLORIDA had the ball: Syracuse 31 South Florida 54

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 95 South Florida 116

Comments: I’d expected we might have had more “winning plays”, since we out-gained them by 95 yards and had 10 more first downs, but it was not the case. We did well defending passing plays, (18-12) but were steamrolled on the ground, (9-23). We produced no turnovers to offset the three they got and our best answer to their 83 yard punt return TD was a 41 yard kick-off return- and we wound up punting on that drive. I have USF with 62 plays from scrimmage and 16 of them went 10 yards or more Six of them went 20+ yards and four of those were more than 30 yards.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 5-3, 3-1, 3-2 = 11-6
P: 3-0, 8-4, 3-2 = 14-6
FG: 4-0, 0-1, 2-0 = 6-1
XP: 3-0, 4-0, 2-0 = 9-0
Kicking plays total: 15-3, 15-6, 10-4 = 40-13

1r: 5-10, 6-12, 11-14 = 22-36
1p: 12-7, 8-12, 7-10 = 27-29
First Down Total: 17-17, 14-24, 18-24 = 49-65
2r: 3-8, 5-7, 9-9 = 17-24
2p: 8-7, 8-13, 8-5 = 24-25
Second Down Total: 11-15, 13-20, 17-14 = 41-49
3r: 3-3, 6-1, 2-6 = 11-10
3p: 6-6, 6-9, 13-4 = 25-19
Third Down Total: 9-9, 12-10, 15-10 = 36-29
4r: 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 = 2-1
4p: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2 = 3-3
Fourth Down Total: 3-0, 0-1, 2-3 = 5-4

Total on running plays: 12-21, 17-20, 23-30 = 52-71
Total on passing plays: 28-17, 22-35, 29-21 = 79-73
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-41, 39-55, 52-51 = 131-147

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4, 3-3, 2-7 = 5-14

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 55-48, 57-64, 64-62 = 176-174

Comment: Our high-powered offense runs a lot of plays but is so far winning only 47% of the plays from scrimmage. First and second down runs are the biggest problem , (39-60). We are doing well on third down (36-29).

When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-2, 2-8, 2-6 = 4-16
P: 4-7, 1-5, 1-5 = 6-17
FG: 0-0, 1-2, 0-1 = 1-3
XP: 0-1, 0-8, 0-6 = 0-15

Kicking plays total: 4-10, 4-23, 3-18 = 11-51

1r: 10-4, 6-20, 4-12 = 20-36
1p: 4-4, 8-9, 7-8 = 19-21
First Down Total: 14-8, 14-29, 11-20 = 39-57
2r: 9-3, 4-6, 4-8 = 17-17
2p: 6-0, 8-4, 4-2 = 18-6
Second Down Total: 15-3, 12-10, 8-10 = 35-23
3r: 0-2, 1-3, 1-2 = 2-7
3p: 11-3, 8-3, 7-2 = 26-8
Third Down Total: 11-5, 9-6, 8-4 = 28-15
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 0-1
4p: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0 0-0
Fourth Down Total: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 = 0-1

Total on running plays: 19-9, 11-29, 9-23 = 39-61
Total on passing plays: 21-7, 24-16, 18-12 = 63-35
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-16, 35-45, 27-35 = 102-96

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-0, 3-0, 1-1 = 6-1

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 46-26, 42-68, 31-54 = 119-148

Overall Game Total: 101-74, 99-132, 95-116 = 295-322

Comment: Our defense on first down running plays in the last two games has lost 32 of 42 plays, the opposite of the success rate of our offense on such plays, only worse. Despite the early problems against Louisville, we are actually doing very well against the pass, (63-35). But you aren’t a good defense if you can’t stop the run (39-61).

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116
TOTAL: Syracuse 295 Opponent 322 We've 'won' 1 of 3 games.

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 5700 plays, (48.4%) and 24 games, (38.1%). The opposition has won 6080 plays and 39 games with two games even.

 

[TheCusian]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116
TOTAL: Syracuse 295 Opponent 322 We've 'won' 1 of 3 games.

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 5700 plays, (48.4%) and 24 games, (38.1%). The opposition has won 6080 plays and 39 games with two games even.

Interesting that this team is averaging 98 a game. That destroys the last two years avg.