Winning Plays 2018 (Connecticut)

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. . 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: CN 25, CN 25, CN 25, CN 25, CN 16, CN 25, CN 7, CN 25, CN 25, CN 25
Total: Syracuse 10 Connecticut 0
P: 39 to CN 10, 51 to CN 11, 59 to CN 16, 46 to CN 14, 51 to CN 39
Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 0
FG: Good from 32, Good from 27, Good from 25
Total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 6 Connecticut 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 23 Connecticut 0

1r: 11, 3, 5(7), 7, 13, 51, 15, 5, 1, 2, 26, -1v, 1, 4, 7, 5(6), 7, 4, 2, 3, -2, 6, 5
Total: Syracuse 16 Connecticut 7
1p: 5, 16, I, 11, 9, 13, 22, 7TD, I, 31, 5, 4, 3, I, 22, I
Total: Syracuse 11 Connecticut 5
First Down Total: Syracuse 27 Connecticut 12
2r: 6(7), 2TD, 9(3), 17, 9(1), 8(5), 3(5), Fumble (after a 52 yard run!), 4(6), 1(3), -15p
Total: Syracuse 8 Connecticut 3
2p: 12(5), 2(20), 10s, I, -7s, 4(9), 14, 17(11), I
Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 5
Second Down Total: Syracuse 12 Connecticut 8
3r: 0, 2(2), 5(2), 16(2)
Total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 1
3p: 10(16), I, 18(32), I, 49TD, 9(12), I, I
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 0
4p: 12(1)
Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Connecticut 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 27 Connecticut 11
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 17 Connecticut 17
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 44 Connecticut 28

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -10, -5, -5, -15, -5, -5, -5 -5 Syracuse 0 Connecticut 8

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 67 Connecticut 36


When Connecticut had the ball:

KO: SU 32, SU 30, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Connecticut 2
P: 45 to SU 25, 13 to CN 42, 44 to SU 36, 49 to SU 27, 44 to SU 42, 54 to SU 25, Touchdown (69 yard return by SU), 45 to SU 21, 40 to SU 33, 29 to SU 27
Total: Syracuse 3 Connecticut 7
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 0
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 5 Connecticut 12

1r: 3, 3, 75TD, -1, -5, 4, 8, -6, 9, 5, 14, 7, 3, 5, 0, 3, 6, 6, -1
Total: Syracuse 9 Connecticut 10
1p: I, 6, -5s, 13, 9, 2TD, -6s, 11, 6, 40, I
Total: Syracuse 4 Connecticut 7
First Down Total: Syracuse 13 Connecticut 17
2r: 1, 2(7), 10(11), 1(16), 9(1), 3(4), 2(3), -3, 10, 3, 7(4)
Total: Syracuse 5 Connecticut 6
2p: 29(7), -8s+Fumble, I, 23(1), 6(11), -7s, I, 10(16), 11(2)s+p, 2(5), 26TD, Interception
Total: Syracuse 6 Connecticut 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 Connecticut 12
3r: 0, 13(1), 2(7)
Total: Syracuse 2 Connecticut 1
3p: 12(9), I, 9(15), 13s, 7(22), I, I, 10s, -4, 2(3), I
Total: Syracuse 8 Connecticut 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Connecticut 4
4r: 1(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Connecticut 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 Connecticut 18
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 18 Connecticut 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 34 Connecticut 34

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, -15, -5 Syracuse 3 Connecticut 1

Game total when Connecticut had the ball: Syracuse 42 Connecticut 47

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83

Comments: Every one of the plays in which we kicked the ball was a Syracuse win. That’s 23 of the 26 play advantage we had. For the season, we are 84-4 on our own kicking plays. The opposition is 32-29 on their kicking plays. That’s a huge reason why we are 4-0.

Our 27-11 edge on our running plays was our best of the season. We only broke even on our passing plays, 17-17, including 1 for 7 on third down. We are going to have pass effectively against Clemson. The best way to do that against a dominant defensive line is to not wait until third down to do it so they don’t know ahead of time that you are going to pass it, (we were 11-5 on first down passes).

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 10-0 + 11-0 + 6-1 + 10-0 = 37-1
P: 4-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 = 13-2
FG: 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-1 + 3-0 = 10-1
XP: 7-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 = 24-0
Kicking plays total: 23-0 + 22-1 + 16-3 + 23-0 = 84-4

1r: 14-16 + 15-7 + 13-13 + 16-7 = 58-43
1p: 3-5 + 9-6 + 6-4 + 11-5 = 29-20
First Down Total: 17-21 + 24-13 + 19-17 + 27-12 = 87-63
2r: 9-6 + 8-5 + 5-8 + 8-3 = 30-22
2p: 5-9 + 5-9 + 6-9 + 4-5 = 20-32
Second Down Total: 14-15 + 13-14 + 11-17 + 12-8 = 50-54
3r: 7-6 + 2-0 + 6- + 3-1 = 18-12
3p: 1-4 + 5-6 + 4-5 + 1-7 = 11-22
Third Down Total: 8-10 + 7-6 + 10-10 + 4-8 = 29-34
4r: 2-1 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 3-3
4p: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 = 2-0
Fourth Down Total: 2-1 + 2-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 = 5-3

Total on running plays: 32-29 + 26-13 + 24-27 + 27-11 = 109-80
Total on passing plays: 9-18 + 20-21 + 16-18 + 17-17 = 62-74
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-47+ 46-34 + 40-45 + 44-28 = 171-154

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 5-2 + 3-5 +3-5+ 0-8 = 11-20

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 69-49 + 71-40 + 59-53 + 67-36 = 266-178


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 6-1 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 2-2 = 12-4
P: 3-2 + 7-1 + 4-5 + 3-7 = 17-15
FG: 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-1
XP: 0-7 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-3 = 0-12
Kicking plays total: 10-10 + 10-3 + 5-7 + 5-12 = 30-32

1r: 8-7 + 16-4 + 5-4 + 9-10 = 38-25
1p: 10-11 + 6-3 + 10-6 + 4-7 = 30-27
First Down Total: 18-18 + 22-7 + 15-10 + 13-17 = 68-52
2r: 3-6 + 11-3 + 5-1 + 5-6 = 24-16
2p: 5-3 + 4-6 + 10-4 + 6-6 = 25-19
Second Down Total: 8-9 + 15-9 + 15-5 + 11-12 = 49-35
3r: 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 2-1 = 9-5
3p: 1-5 + 10-3 + 10-0 + 8-3 = 29-11
Third Down Total: 2-6 + 13-5 + 13-1 + 10-4 = 38-16
4r: 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 = 1-2
4p: 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 2-1
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 = 3-3

Total on running plays: 12-14 + 31-10 + 13-6 + 16-18 = 72-48
Total on passing plays: 17-20 + 20-12 + 31-10 + 18-16 = 86-58
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-34 + 51-22 + 44-16 + 34-34 = 158-106

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 7-0 + 5-1 + 3-1= 16-5

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 40-47, 68-25, 54-24, 42-47 = 204-143

Overall Game Total: 109-96 + 139-65 + 113-77+ 109-83 = 470-321

Comment: We’ve been stubborn about running the ball but we’ve done it better than we’ve passed it, (109-80, 62-74). And I thought we were a passing team. Our defensive effort against Connecticut was similar to the Western Michigan game, (40-47 vs. 42-47), with a few less big plays surrendered and a few more big defensive plays, TFLs and turnover, mixed in.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 Southern California 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 5 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of 4 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 8,127 plays, (48.7%) and 33 games, (36.7%). The opposition has won 8,571 plays and 55 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 444 more plays than we have in 90 games, an average of 4.93 plays a game.