Winning Plays -Boston College

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 25 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 20 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so I wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting team has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

I have decided to list the “Big Plays” at the bottom of each team’s summary. A big play is a play from scrimmage of over 20 yards, (or 20+ yards lost), kickoff returns of +25 yards, punt returns of +20, blocked kicks, missed kicks, and takeovers on fumbles, interceptions and downs.

When Syracuse had the ball:

Drive Starts: SU 17, SU 25, SU 35, BC 47, BC 40, SU 25, SU 17, SU 46, SU 24, BC 41, SU 20, SU 27 = 408/12 = SU 34, with 792 yards to go.

KO: BC 25, BC 25, BC 35
Total: Syracuse 2 Boston College 1
P: 44 to BC 27, 37 to BC 8, 33 to BC 20, 22 to BC 41(p), 50 to BC 29
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 1
FG: No Good from 57, Good from 36
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 1
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 3

1r: 2, 4, 3, 5, 32, 4, 2, 3, 2, 2, 56, -1, 5, 2
Total: Syracuse 6 Boston College 8
1p: I, 4, 19(p), 5, 3, I, 2, Interception, Interception
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 14
2r: 3, 2, 0, 1(8), 4(5), 18(7), 8(27), 1(8), 10(5)
Total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 5
2p: 6(8), Interception, 4(5), I, 13(7), -3(5), I
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 7 Boston College 9
3r: 4(2), 0, 27TD, 1(1), 5(16), 9(18)
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 3
3p: I Interception, I
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 13 Boston College 16
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 6 Boston College 13
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 19 Boston College 29

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +7. -5, -5, -5, -7, -10 Syracuse 1 Boston College 6

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 28 Boston College 38

Big Plays: 32 yard run, 27 yard TD run, Recovered Fumble, 56 yard run, Recovered Fumble


When Boston College had the ball:

Drive Starts: BC 25, BC 50, BC 27, BC 25, BC 8, BC 20, BC 20, BC 41, BC 35, BC 25, BC 29, SU 45 = 360/12 = BC 30 with 840 yards to go.

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 27
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 3
P: 37 to SU 17, 39 to SU 35, 34 to BC 40, 9 to SU 45, 21 to SU 20
Total: Syracuse 3 Boston College 2
FG: Good from 24
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 1
XP: Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 4 Boston College 8

1r: 4, 7, -1, 3, 4, -4, 5, 1, 7, 3, 12, -1, 3, 6, 3, 1, 6, 3, 6, 3v
Total: Syracuse 10 Boston College 10
1p: 5, 1, I, 12, I, 19, I, 8, 3, I, 11, 2TD, I, 9, 5, I, 21, 9
Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 8 Boston College 10
2r: 2(6), -1, 2(8), 4(7), 9, 3(2), -1, 0, 6(7), 6, 19(p), 4, 8(4), 7TD, 3(4), -3v
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 11
2p: 6(5), I, 18, I, 1(6), 2(14), 11, 6(3), I, 4(5), 21(11), Fumble, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 Boston College 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Boston College 17
3r: 5(4), 6(4), 5(3), Fumble, 2(1), 5(1), 6(7), 2(1), -5, 3(1), 0, 2(6), 12(9), 4(1)
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 10
3p: I, I, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 5 Boston College 0
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Boston College 10
4r: 1(1), 2(1), 0(1), 6(4)
Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 3
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Boston College 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Boston College 3

Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 Boston College 34
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 Boston College 16
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Boston College 50

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +12 Syracuse 0 Boston College 1

Game total when Boston College had the ball: Syracuse 47 Boston College 59

Big Plays: Interception, Interception, 21-yard pass reception, Interception, 21-yard reception, Interception

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 75 Boston College 97


Comments: This game was lost for one reason: our pass attack stunk. Carlos Del Rio Wilson passed for just 37 yards and threw four interceptions. We out-rushed a rushing team 209-185 and forced two fumbles. We had 8 TFLs to 3. They completed just 54% of their passes for 8.25 yards per completion and just 4,5 yards per attempt. Even a decent day passing the ball would have given us the win. Instead we had the worst day I can ever remember.

BC was 0 for 5 on third down passes but they made the third down on 10 runs and on three fourth down runs. That’s 13 times they were close enough to run on 3rd or fourth down and only 2 two times we really stopped them. We won the ‘big plays 6-5 but 6 of the 11 big plays in this game were turnovers.

This was a 75-97 game, -22. The closest games to this in the Babers Era:
2016 Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21 We lost 20-45
2017 Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23 We lost 26-35
2017 Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19 We lost 25-33
2019 Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22 We lost 10-16
2019 Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22 We lost 20-27
2019 Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19 We lost 17-35
2019 Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19 We lost 34-56
2020 Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23 We lost 14-38
2021 Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20 We lost 14-17
2021 Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23 We lost 17-41

 

[SWC75]

TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

Drive Starts:
564/14 = SU 40 with 836 yards to go (+365)
301/12 = SU 25 with 899 yards to go (-15)
326/12 = SU 27 with 874 yards to go (-99)
443/12 = SU 37 with 757 yards to go (+77)
347/14 = SU 24 with 1,054 yards to go (-213)
268/11 = SU 24 with 832 yards to go (-133)
300/14 = SU 21 with 1,100 yards to go (-189)
295/12 = SU 25 with 905 yards to go (-87)
408/12 = SU 34 with 792 yards to go (+48)
3,252/113 = SU 29 with 8,049 yards to go (-246)

KO: 11-0 + 6-1 + 6-0 + 6-1 + 3-0 + 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-0 + 2-1 = 41-3
P: 1-0 + 4-0 + 1-2 + 3-0 + 4-1 + 5-1 + 5-3 + 6-3 + 4-1 = 33-11
FG: 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-1 + 3-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 = 9-4
XP: 8-1 + 6-0 + 5-0 + 2-1 + 2-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 = 26-2
Kicking plays total: 21-1 + 18-1 + 12-3 + 14-2 + 9-2 + 8-1 + 7-4 + 11-3 + 8-3 = 109-20

1r: 14-14 + 7-11 + 12-9 + 10-7 + 4-7 + 7-6 + 6-11 + 4-8 + 6-8 = 70-81
1p: 11-3 + 7-9 + 4-9 + 9-2 + 2-12 + 5-4 + 3-6 + 3-5 + 3-6 = 47-56
First Down Total: 25-17 + 14-20 + 16-18 + 19-9 + 6-19 + 12-10 + 9-17 + 7-13 + 9-14 = 117-137
2r: 12-5 + 8-3 + 5-4 + 10-6 + 8-4 + 5-2 + 6-6 + 2-2 + 4-5 = 60-37
2p: 7-5 + 5-9 + 7-6 + 3-2 + 7-3 + 6-6 + 1-8 + 5-5 + 3-4 = 44-48
Second Down Total: 19-10 + 13-12 + 12-10 + 13-8 + 15-7 + 11-8 + 7-14 + 7-7 + 7-9 = 104-85
3r: 4-2 + 2-1 + 5-0 + 0-4 + 6-2 + 2-3 + 2-2 + 0-1 + 3-3 = 24-18
3p: 7-4 + 5-5 + 2-5 + 3-4 + 3-6 + 2-3 + 4-13 + 0-8 + 0-3 = 26-54
Third Down Total: 11-6 + 7-6 + 7-5 + 3-8 + 9-8 + 4-6 + 6-15 + 0-9 + 3-6 = 50-72
4r: 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-2
4p: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-3
Fourth Down Total: 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 1-5

Total on running plays: 30-22 + 17-15 + 22-13 + 20-18 + 18-13 + 14-11 + 15-19 + 6-11 + 13-16 = 155-138
Total on passing plays: 25-12 + 17-23 + 13-21 + 16-8 + 12-21 + 13-13 + 8-28 + 8-18 + 6-13 = 118-157
Total on plays from scrimmage: 55-34 + 34-38 + 35-34 + 36-26 + 30-34 + 27-24 + 23-47 + 14-29 + 19-29 = 273-295

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-2 + 4-4 + 6-1 + 0-2 + 3-2 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-4 + 1-6 = 14-27

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 76-37 + 56-43 + 53-38 + 50-30 + 42-38 + 35-29 + 31-53 + 25-36 + 28-38 = 396-342

Big Plays: 12 + 8 + 13 + 8 + 5 + 3 + 7 + 2 + 5 = 63


When OPPONENT had the ball:

Drive Starts:
399/16 = Colgate 25 with 1,201 yards to go
316/12 = W Michigan 26 with 884 yards to go
325/11 = Purdue 30 with 775 yards to go
266/11 = Army 24 with 834 yards to go
560/14 = Clemson 40 with 840 yards to go
301/10 = North Carolina 30 with 699 yards to go
489/14 = Florida State 35 with 911 yards to go
382/12 = Virginia Tech 32 with 818 yards to go
360/12 = Boston College 30 with 840 yards to go
3,398/112 = Opposition 30 with 7,802 yards to go

KO: 0-1 + 2-0 + 0-4 + 1-3 + 0-6 + 0-8 + 0-8 + 0-8 + 1-3 = 4-41
P: 3-6 + 1-5 + 0-2 + 2-3 + 1-5 + 0-1 + 0-4 + 1-2 + 3-2 = 11-30
FG: 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 1-1 + 0-4 + 0-2 + 0-5 + 0-1 = 1-14
XP: 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 1-1 + 0-4 + 0-4 + 0-5 + 0-3 + 0-2 = 1-23
Kicking plays total: 3-7 + 3-6 + 0-9 + 4-8 + 2-16 + 0-17 + 0-19 + 1-18 + 4-8 = 17-108

1r: 14-6 + 13-1 + 9-9 + 7-7 + 9-9 + 7-7 + 5-12 + 7-16 + 10-10 = 81-77
1p: 1-1 + 6-5 + 9-11 + 8-3 + 6-6 + 10-20 + 5-9 + 10-3 + 8-10 = 63-68
First Down Total: 15-7 + 19-6 + 18-20 + 15-10 + 15-15 + 17-27 + 10-21 + 17-19 + 18-20 = 144-145
2r: 3-3 + 2-4 + 3-4 + 4-8 + 3-7 + 4-14 + 2-6 + 8-13 + 5-11 = 34-70
2p: 9-3 + 9-10 + 8-9 + 5-4 + 9-5 + 8-6 + 9-5 + 1-4 + 9-6 = 67-52
Second Down Total: 12-6 + 11-14 + 11-13 + 9-12 + 12-12 + 12-20 + 11-11 + 9-17 + 14-17 = 101-122
3r: 4-2 + 2-1 + 3-1 + 4-8 + 1-4 + 4-6 + 1-5 + 2-6 + 5-10 = 26-43
3p: 9-1 + 11-5 + 4-3 + 2-3 + 5-6 + 4-5 + 4-7 + 5-3 + 5-0 = 49-33
Third Down Total: 13-3 + 13-6 + 7-4 + 6-11 + 6-10 + 8-11 + 5-12 + 7-9 + 10-10 = 75-76
4r: 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-3 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-3 = 3-6
4p: 1-0 + 4-1 + 2-1 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 11-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-0 + 4-1 + 3-1 + 1-3 + 1-0 + 1-0 + 2-0 + 0-0 + 1-3 = 14-8

Total on running plays: 21-11 + 17-6 + 16-14 + 15-26 + 13-20 + 15-27 + 9-23 + 17-35 + 21-34 = 144-196
Total on passing plays: 20-5 + 30-21 + 23-24 + 16-10 + 21-17 + 23-31 + 19-21 + 16-10 + 22-16 = 190-155
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-16 + 47-27 + 39-38 + 31-36 + 34-37 + 38-58 + 28-44 + 43-50 = 334-351

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 6-2 + 3-0 + 4-3 + 2-0 + 3-4 + 3-2 + 2-0 + 2-2 + 0-1= 25-14

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 50-25 + 53-33 + 43-50 + 37-44 + 39-57 + 41-77 + 30-63 + 36-65 + 47-59 = 376-473

Big Plays: 4 + 3 + 7 + 4 + 8 + 7 + 8 + 6 + 6 = 53

Overall Game Totals:
126-62 + 109-76 + 96-88 + 87-74 + 81-95 + 76-106 + 61-116 + 61-101 + 75-97 = 772-815


Comments:

We’ve kicked the ball 129 times and got what we wanted out of it 109 times, (85%). Our opposition has kicked the ball just 125 times and got what they wanted 107 times, (86%). Our advantage is gone. Our advantage in field position has become a deficit, (7,257 yards to go vs. 6,962).

Go figure: we are 70-81 on first down runs on offense but 104-85 on second down run. Defensively we are 81-77 on first down runs but 34-70 on second down runs. I guess defenses are more ready for first down runs and have to think about the pass more on second down.

We’re also pretty good at stopping third and fourth down passes, 60-35. Those are two very good downs to dominate. But we are 32-49 against the run on those downs.

We’re still ahead +10 on ‘big’ plays but we’re playing games where they don’t seem to matter as the other team is dominating with incremental but consistent gains.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS (Babers Era – game totals only)

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10
Syracuse 124 Louisville 83 = +41
Syracuse 86 Notre Dame 99 = -13
Syracuse 110 Boston College 96 = +14
Syracuse 116 West Virginia 79 +37
TOTAL: Syracuse 1434 Opponents 1195 = +239 We ‘won’ 10 of 13 games

2019
Syracuse 104 Liberty 84 = +20
Syracuse 82 Maryland 112 = -30
Syracuse 77 Clemson 113 = -36
Syracuse 113 Western Michigan 99 =+14
Syracuse 110 Holy Cross 67 = +43
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 92 Pittsburgh 114 = -22
Syracuse 96 Florida State 115 = -19
Syracuse 76 Boston College 119 = -43
Syracuse 107 Duke 78 = +29
Syracuse 85 Louisville 104 = -19
Syracuse 118 Wake Forest 111 = +7
TOTAL: Syracuse 1138 Opponents 1216 = -78 We ‘won’ 5 of 12 games

2020
Syracuse 70 North Carolina 114 = -44
Syracuse 78 Pittsburgh 89 = -11
Syracuse 108 Georgia Tech 102 = +6
Syracuse 79 Duke 114 = -35
Syracuse 77 Liberty 93 = -16
Syracuse 72 Clemson 112 = -40
Syracuse 76 Wake Forest 99 = -23
Syracuse 68 Boston College 96 = -28
Syracuse 76 Louisville 81 = -5
Syracuse 76 North Carolina State 108 = -32
Syracuse 82 Notre Dame 100 = -18
TOTAL: Syracuse 862 Opponents 1108 = -248 We ‘won’ 1 of 11 games

2021
Syracuse 86 Ohio U. 63 = +23
Syracuse 64 Rutgers 101 = -37
Syracuse 103 Albany 69 = +34
Syracuse 79 Liberty 83 = -4
Syracuse 79 Florida State 90 = -11
Syracuse 102 Wake Forest 92 = +10
Syracuse 79 Clemson 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 Virginia Tech 94 = -4
Syracuse 86 Boston College 79 = +7
Syracuse 56 Louisville 91 = -35
Syracuse 65 North Carolina State 88 = -23
Syracuse 67 Pittsburgh 95 = -28
TOTAL: Syracuse 956 opponents 1044 = -88 We ‘won’ 4 of 12 games

2022
Syracuse 92 Louisville 73 = +19
Syracuse 96 Connecticut 59 = +37
Syracuse 99 Purdue 92 = +7
Syracuse 88 Virginia 99 = -11
Syracuse 103 Wagner 28 = +75
Syracuse 89 North Carolina State 65 = +24
Syracuse 77 Clemson 102 = -25
Syracuse 66 Notre Dame 113 = -47
Syracuse 66 Pittsburgh 95 = -29
Syracuse 59 Florida State 100 = -41
Syracuse 82 Wake Forest 114 = -32
Syracuse 107 Boston College 79 = +28
Syracuse 85 Minnesota 84 = +1 We ‘won’ 7 of 13 games
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,109 opponents 1,103 = +6

2023
Syracuse 126 Colgate 62 = +64
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 76 = +33
Syracuse 96 Purdue 88 = +8
Syracuse 87 Army 74 = +13
Syracuse 81 Clemson 95 = -14
Syracuse 76 North Carolina 106 = -30
Syracuse 61 Florida State 116 = -55
Syracuse 61 Virginia Tech 101 = -40
Syracuse 75 Boston College 97 = -21 We’ve won 4 of 9 games.
TOTAL: Syracuse 772 Opponents 815 = -42
Totals since 2016: Syracuse has won 9,856 plays, (48.8%) and 36 games, (37.9%). The opposition has won 10,328 plays, (yes we’ve now seen over 10,000 plays not go our way in the Babers Era) and 59 games. They’ve obtained their goals on 472 more plays than we have in 95 games, an average of 5.0 plays a game.