SWC75
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This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (sicne it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
THE CENTRAL CONNECTICUT GAME
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: CC25, CC21, CC25, CC24, CC78, CC26, CC18, CC23, CC19, CC22
Total: Syracuse 8 Central Connecticut 2
P: 41 to CC28, 44 to CC 28, 34 to CC15
Total: Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 0
FG: Good from 29, No good from 51, Good from 27, Good from 39
Total: Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, No Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Central Connecticut 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 19 Central Connecticut 4
1r: 1, 11TD, 7, 6TD, 0, 4, 7, 1(5), 2, 1, 6, 1, 10, -1, 2, 0, 7, 1, 13, 7, 13, -1
Total: Syracuse 11 Central Connecticut 11
1p: 5, 6, 29, 6, 30P, 13, 14, 8, I, 8, I, 5, 2, 13, 5, 12, 12, 6, I, 4, 13, Fumble, Fumble, I, 8
Total: Syracuse 17 Central Connecticut 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 28 Central Connecticut 17
2r: 2(4), 1(4), 5, 1(4), 8(13), 4, 3(9), 2TD, 1, 3(3), 3(2), 0
Total: Syracuse 6 Central Connecticut 5
2p: 34(9), 8(5), 8(3), I, I, 8(3), I, 0, -1, 4(8), 5TD, I, 11(5), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Central Connecticut 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Central Connecticut 14
3r: 3(2), 3(3), 4(9), 8(6), 1(4), 5(9)
Total: Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 3
3p: 14TD, I, I, 11(3), 52TD, 14(4), I, 20(4), 11(8), 42(6), I, 11(9), I
Total: Syracuse 8 Central Connecticut 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 11 Central Connecticut 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 0
4p: 4(3)
Total: Syracuse 1 Central Connecticut 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Central Connecticut 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 20 Central Connecticut 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 42 Central Connecticut 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 62 Central Connecticut 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, +15, -5, +3 Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 2
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 84 Central Connecticut 44
When Central Connecticut had the ball:
KO: SU30, SU35
Total: Syracuse 2 Central Connecticut 0
P: 30 to SU50, 46 to SU24, 38 to SU32, 36 to SU44, 36 to SU27, 37 to SU39, 30 to SU38, 32 to SU38, 30 to SU44, 36 to SU17
Total: Syracuse 9 Central Connecticut 3
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 11 Central Connecticut 4
1r: 6, 1, 6, 2, -1, 0, 6, 6, 2, 2, 3, 1
Total: Syracuse 8 Central Connecticut 4
1p: I, 12, I, I, 6, -4S, Fumble, 2, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Central Connecticut 2
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Central Connecticut 6
2r: -1, 7(4), 1(4), 2, 3, 4(8), 2(4), -1, 3
Total: Syracuse 6 Central Connecticut 3
2p: I, I, I, I, 12(4), I, I, 4, 11(8), 0
Total: Syracuse 7 Central Connecticut 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Central Connecticut 6
3r: -4, 2(3), -3, 9, 3(15), 4(8), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 7 Central Connecticut 0
3p: 5(14), I, I, I, 27(7), I, 7(20), I, 3(6)
Total: Syracuse 8 Central Connecticut 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 15 Central Connecticut 1
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 0
4p: 24TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 Central Connecticut 7
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 Central Connecticut 7
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Central Connecticut 14
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +10, -5, -5, +8, -5 Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 2
Game total when Central Connecticut had the ball: Syracuse 57 Central Connecticut 20
Combined game total: Syracuse 141 Central Connecticut 64
Comments: How does this compare to our performances against other FCS opponents?
2011 Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 +27
2012 Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 +11
2013 Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 +63
2014 Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 -12
2015 Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 +40
2016 Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 +27
We were +77 vs. Central Connecticut State, so this stands as our most dominating performance. Obviously the quality of those FCS teams has varied and CCS would be at or near the bottom of the list.
The only things really to worry about in these numbers are that SU missed a field goal and an extra point and that of our 39 rushing plays, we got the minimum we would have wanted on only 20 of those plays, (52%), against an FCS team that finished 2-9 last year. If we can’t dominate their defensive front, how can we expect to make any headway against teams like LSU, NC State, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Louisville or even Boston College, all of whom are supposed to have very strong front sevens this year?
Despite our placekicking problems, we dominated in the kicking game. Normally the kicking team wins that by a decisive margin. But we won our kicks 19-4 and their kicks 11-4, largely because of the weakness of CCS’s punting. They punted 12 times and we won 9 of those kicks. I felt several times that CCS was doing us a favor by punting with 1, 1, 4, 1, 4, 3 and 3 yards, considering the difficulty they had stopping our offense. Of course they were 1 for 15 on third down conversions but their lone score came on a 4th and 4 play. When you are a heavy underdog, it seems to me you’ve got take chances. We will be a decided underdog ourselves in several games this year and I hope take more chances than the Blue Devils did.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble as a running play, (sicne it’s not always clear what the intent was), but a sack as a passing play. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
THE CENTRAL CONNECTICUT GAME
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: CC25, CC21, CC25, CC24, CC78, CC26, CC18, CC23, CC19, CC22
Total: Syracuse 8 Central Connecticut 2
P: 41 to CC28, 44 to CC 28, 34 to CC15
Total: Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 0
FG: Good from 29, No good from 51, Good from 27, Good from 39
Total: Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 1
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, No Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Central Connecticut 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 19 Central Connecticut 4
1r: 1, 11TD, 7, 6TD, 0, 4, 7, 1(5), 2, 1, 6, 1, 10, -1, 2, 0, 7, 1, 13, 7, 13, -1
Total: Syracuse 11 Central Connecticut 11
1p: 5, 6, 29, 6, 30P, 13, 14, 8, I, 8, I, 5, 2, 13, 5, 12, 12, 6, I, 4, 13, Fumble, Fumble, I, 8
Total: Syracuse 17 Central Connecticut 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 28 Central Connecticut 17
2r: 2(4), 1(4), 5, 1(4), 8(13), 4, 3(9), 2TD, 1, 3(3), 3(2), 0
Total: Syracuse 6 Central Connecticut 5
2p: 34(9), 8(5), 8(3), I, I, 8(3), I, 0, -1, 4(8), 5TD, I, 11(5), I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Central Connecticut 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Central Connecticut 14
3r: 3(2), 3(3), 4(9), 8(6), 1(4), 5(9)
Total: Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 3
3p: 14TD, I, I, 11(3), 52TD, 14(4), I, 20(4), 11(8), 42(6), I, 11(9), I
Total: Syracuse 8 Central Connecticut 5
Third Down Total: Syracuse 11 Central Connecticut 8
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 0
4p: 4(3)
Total: Syracuse 1 Central Connecticut 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Central Connecticut 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 20 Central Connecticut 19
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 42 Central Connecticut 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 62 Central Connecticut 38
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, +15, -5, +3 Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 2
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 84 Central Connecticut 44
When Central Connecticut had the ball:
KO: SU30, SU35
Total: Syracuse 2 Central Connecticut 0
P: 30 to SU50, 46 to SU24, 38 to SU32, 36 to SU44, 36 to SU27, 37 to SU39, 30 to SU38, 32 to SU38, 30 to SU44, 36 to SU17
Total: Syracuse 9 Central Connecticut 3
FG: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 0
XP: Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 1
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 11 Central Connecticut 4
1r: 6, 1, 6, 2, -1, 0, 6, 6, 2, 2, 3, 1
Total: Syracuse 8 Central Connecticut 4
1p: I, 12, I, I, 6, -4S, Fumble, 2, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Central Connecticut 2
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Central Connecticut 6
2r: -1, 7(4), 1(4), 2, 3, 4(8), 2(4), -1, 3
Total: Syracuse 6 Central Connecticut 3
2p: I, I, I, I, 12(4), I, I, 4, 11(8), 0
Total: Syracuse 7 Central Connecticut 3
Second Down Total: Syracuse 13 Central Connecticut 6
3r: -4, 2(3), -3, 9, 3(15), 4(8), 1(2)
Total: Syracuse 7 Central Connecticut 0
3p: 5(14), I, I, I, 27(7), I, 7(20), I, 3(6)
Total: Syracuse 8 Central Connecticut 1
Third Down Total: Syracuse 15 Central Connecticut 1
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 0
4p: 24TD
Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Central Connecticut 1
Total on running plays: Syracuse 21 Central Connecticut 7
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 22 Central Connecticut 7
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 Central Connecticut 14
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +10, -5, -5, +8, -5 Syracuse 3 Central Connecticut 2
Game total when Central Connecticut had the ball: Syracuse 57 Central Connecticut 20
Combined game total: Syracuse 141 Central Connecticut 64
Comments: How does this compare to our performances against other FCS opponents?
2011 Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 +27
2012 Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 +11
2013 Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 +63
2014 Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 -12
2015 Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 +40
2016 Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 +27
We were +77 vs. Central Connecticut State, so this stands as our most dominating performance. Obviously the quality of those FCS teams has varied and CCS would be at or near the bottom of the list.
The only things really to worry about in these numbers are that SU missed a field goal and an extra point and that of our 39 rushing plays, we got the minimum we would have wanted on only 20 of those plays, (52%), against an FCS team that finished 2-9 last year. If we can’t dominate their defensive front, how can we expect to make any headway against teams like LSU, NC State, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Louisville or even Boston College, all of whom are supposed to have very strong front sevens this year?
Despite our placekicking problems, we dominated in the kicking game. Normally the kicking team wins that by a decisive margin. But we won our kicks 19-4 and their kicks 11-4, largely because of the weakness of CCS’s punting. They punted 12 times and we won 9 of those kicks. I felt several times that CCS was doing us a favor by punting with 1, 1, 4, 1, 4, 3 and 3 yards, considering the difficulty they had stopping our offense. Of course they were 1 for 15 on third down conversions but their lone score came on a 4th and 4 play. When you are a heavy underdog, it seems to me you’ve got take chances. We will be a decided underdog ourselves in several games this year and I hope take more chances than the Blue Devils did.
