SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,607
- Like
- 62,874
This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 16
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 0
P: 39 to NCS 25, 48 to NCS 9, 41 to NCS 27, 36 to NCS 11, 34 to NCS 15
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 1
FG: Good from 29, Good form 45, Good from 41
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 22North Carolina State 1
1r: 6, 5, 6, 2, 2TD, 7, 17, 2, 8, 1, 3, 18p, 2, 2, 2, 2, 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 10
1p: -3, 5, 6s, 17(15), I, 48, I, I, 4, I, I, I, 6, 13, 9, 8, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 North Carolina State 20
2r: 9(5), 5(4), 2(1), -1, 0, 9(4), 4(15), 0
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 4
2p: 24(4), 14(13), I, 82TD, 45(4), -6s, 20TD, 12(10), 2s, 0, 15(3), 6, 11, -5s, 15(7), 31TD, 9(8), -11s, 6, 14(8), 9(8), 7(8)
Total: Syracuse 16 North Carolina State 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 20 North Carolina State 10
3r: 3(3), 1TD, 1(4), 5TD
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 1
3p: -5s, I, I, 7s, 16(13), 29(21), I
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse North 0 Carolina State 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 North Carolina State 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 North Carolina State 20
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 North Carolina State 35
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, -5, +5, +15, -15, +15, +15, -10, -5, +15 Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 5
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 41
When North Carolina State had the ball:
KO: SU 12, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 26, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 6
P: 36 to SU 34, 40 to SU 40, 42 to SU 30, 40 to SU 32, 34 to SU 30
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 3
FG: Good from 25, Good from 29
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 16
1r: 7, -11, 3, 3, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 10, 5, 3, -3, 4, 4, 1TD, -3
Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 6
1p: 8, 6, I, 74TD, 43, I, 5, 9, 8, -6s, 15, 11, I, I, 7, I
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 North Carolina State 16
2r: -2, 5(4), 3(8), 2, 3, 1TD, 14(6), -1, 6
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 4
2p: 67TD, 6(21), I, I, 9(12), 22(9), 5(8), I, 7(5), I, 12(13), 49(5), 11(6), 12TD, 0, 12(8)
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 14
3r: 6(3), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 2
3p: I, I, I, I, 9(3), I, I, 10(4), I, I, 10(3), 49(4), Interception
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 North Carolina State 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 21 North Carolina State 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 North Carolina State 36
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, +5, +15, -5 Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 3
Game total when North Carolina State had the ball: Syracuse 42 North Carolina State 55
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96
Comments: We had the advantage of four 15 yard penalties against NC State that weren’t tacked on to plays. They were plays where our receivers had beaten the defenders and were grabbed so the play could not be completed. It wasn’t just Eric Dungey who was motivated to have a big game. The receivers he worked with had their best ever game, too.
Our special teams continued to give us an advantage. 3-16 is a good score for the Wolfpack on their kicking plays but 22-1 for us, (and one yard on the first punt short of 23-0) is as good as it gets. Our average starting point was our 31 yard line. Theirs was their 22. We were a total of 130 yards closer to the goal in 14 possessions for each team. That’s an extra +130 yards of hidden offense for us.
We had amazing success on second down pass plays. We gained 300 yards and scored 3TDs on 22 plays, 16 of which we ‘won’. Overall, we went from 55-55 on our offensive plays from scrimmage vs. UNC to 71-41 vs. NC State, a better team.
NC State had come in converting 55% of their third downs. We got them down to 40% in this game, mostly by winning 9 of 13 of their third down passing plays, despite the quality of their passing game and the injuries to our pass defense. I think the aggressive line play had a lot to do with that.
- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.
I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.
When Syracuse had the ball:
KO: NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 16
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 0
P: 39 to NCS 25, 48 to NCS 9, 41 to NCS 27, 36 to NCS 11, 34 to NCS 15
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 1
FG: Good from 29, Good form 45, Good from 41
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 22North Carolina State 1
1r: 6, 5, 6, 2, 2TD, 7, 17, 2, 8, 1, 3, 18p, 2, 2, 2, 2, 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 10
1p: -3, 5, 6s, 17(15), I, 48, I, I, 4, I, I, I, 6, 13, 9, 8, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 North Carolina State 20
2r: 9(5), 5(4), 2(1), -1, 0, 9(4), 4(15), 0
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 4
2p: 24(4), 14(13), I, 82TD, 45(4), -6s, 20TD, 12(10), 2s, 0, 15(3), 6, 11, -5s, 15(7), 31TD, 9(8), -11s, 6, 14(8), 9(8), 7(8)
Total: Syracuse 16 North Carolina State 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 20 North Carolina State 10
3r: 3(3), 1TD, 1(4), 5TD
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 1
3p: -5s, I, I, 7s, 16(13), 29(21), I
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse North 0 Carolina State 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 North Carolina State 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 North Carolina State 20
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 North Carolina State 35
Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, -5, +5, +15, -15, +15, +15, -10, -5, +15 Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 5
Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 41
When North Carolina State had the ball:
KO: SU 12, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 26, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 6
P: 36 to SU 34, 40 to SU 40, 42 to SU 30, 40 to SU 32, 34 to SU 30
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 3
FG: Good from 25, Good from 29
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 16
1r: 7, -11, 3, 3, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 10, 5, 3, -3, 4, 4, 1TD, -3
Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 6
1p: 8, 6, I, 74TD, 43, I, 5, 9, 8, -6s, 15, 11, I, I, 7, I
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 North Carolina State 16
2r: -2, 5(4), 3(8), 2, 3, 1TD, 14(6), -1, 6
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 4
2p: 67TD, 6(21), I, I, 9(12), 22(9), 5(8), I, 7(5), I, 12(13), 49(5), 11(6), 12TD, 0, 12(8)
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 14
3r: 6(3), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 2
3p: I, I, I, I, 9(3), I, I, 10(4), I, I, 10(3), 49(4), Interception
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 North Carolina State 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 21 North Carolina State 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 North Carolina State 36
Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, +5, +15, -5 Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 3
Game total when North Carolina State had the ball: Syracuse 42 North Carolina State 55
Overall Game Total: Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96
Comments: We had the advantage of four 15 yard penalties against NC State that weren’t tacked on to plays. They were plays where our receivers had beaten the defenders and were grabbed so the play could not be completed. It wasn’t just Eric Dungey who was motivated to have a big game. The receivers he worked with had their best ever game, too.
Our special teams continued to give us an advantage. 3-16 is a good score for the Wolfpack on their kicking plays but 22-1 for us, (and one yard on the first punt short of 23-0) is as good as it gets. Our average starting point was our 31 yard line. Theirs was their 22. We were a total of 130 yards closer to the goal in 14 possessions for each team. That’s an extra +130 yards of hidden offense for us.
We had amazing success on second down pass plays. We gained 300 yards and scored 3TDs on 22 plays, 16 of which we ‘won’. Overall, we went from 55-55 on our offensive plays from scrimmage vs. UNC to 71-41 vs. NC State, a better team.
NC State had come in converting 55% of their third downs. We got them down to 40% in this game, mostly by winning 9 of 13 of their third down passing plays, despite the quality of their passing game and the injuries to our pass defense. I think the aggressive line play had a lot to do with that.