Winning Plays- NC State

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 25, NCS 16
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 0
P: 39 to NCS 25, 48 to NCS 9, 41 to NCS 27, 36 to NCS 11, 34 to NCS 15
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 1
FG: Good from 29, Good form 45, Good from 41
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 22North Carolina State 1

1r: 6, 5, 6, 2, 2TD, 7, 17, 2, 8, 1, 3, 18p, 2, 2, 2, 2, 0, 2
Total: Syracuse 8 North Carolina State 10
1p: -3, 5, 6s, 17(15), I, 48, I, I, 4, I, I, I, 6, 13, 9, 8, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 North Carolina State 20
2r: 9(5), 5(4), 2(1), -1, 0, 9(4), 4(15), 0
Total: Syracuse 4 North Carolina State 4
2p: 24(4), 14(13), I, 82TD, 45(4), -6s, 20TD, 12(10), 2s, 0, 15(3), 6, 11, -5s, 15(7), 31TD, 9(8), -11s, 6, 14(8), 9(8), 7(8)
Total: Syracuse 16 North Carolina State 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 20 North Carolina State 10
3r: 3(3), 1TD, 1(4), 5TD
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 1
3p: -5s, I, I, 7s, 16(13), 29(21), I
Total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 5
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse North 0 Carolina State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 15 North Carolina State 15
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 28 North Carolina State 20
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 43 North Carolina State 35

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5, -5, -5, +5, +15, -15, +15, +15, -10, -5, +15 Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 5

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 41


When North Carolina State had the ball:

KO: SU 12, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 25, SU 26, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 North Carolina State 6
P: 36 to SU 34, 40 to SU 40, 42 to SU 30, 40 to SU 32, 34 to SU 30
Total: Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 3
FG: Good from 25, Good from 29
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 2
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 5
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 North Carolina State 16

1r: 7, -11, 3, 3, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 10, 5, 3, -3, 4, 4, 1TD, -3
Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 6
1p: 8, 6, I, 74TD, 43, I, 5, 9, 8, -6s, 15, 11, I, I, 7, I
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 10
First Down Total: Syracuse 17 North Carolina State 16
2r: -2, 5(4), 3(8), 2, 3, 1TD, 14(6), -1, 6
Total: Syracuse 5 North Carolina State 4
2p: 67TD, 6(21), I, I, 9(12), 22(9), 5(8), I, 7(5), I, 12(13), 49(5), 11(6), 12TD, 0, 12(8)
Total: Syracuse 6 North Carolina State 10
Second Down Total: Syracuse 11 North Carolina State 14
3r: 6(3), 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 2
3p: I, I, I, I, 9(3), I, I, 10(4), I, I, 10(3), 49(4), Interception
Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 4
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 North Carolina State 6
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 North Carolina State 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 North Carolina State 12
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 21 North Carolina State 24
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 North Carolina State 36

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, +15, +5, +15, -5 Syracuse 2 North Carolina State 3

Game total when North Carolina State had the ball: Syracuse 42 North Carolina State 55

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96

Comments: We had the advantage of four 15 yard penalties against NC State that weren’t tacked on to plays. They were plays where our receivers had beaten the defenders and were grabbed so the play could not be completed. It wasn’t just Eric Dungey who was motivated to have a big game. The receivers he worked with had their best ever game, too.

Our special teams continued to give us an advantage. 3-16 is a good score for the Wolfpack on their kicking plays but 22-1 for us, (and one yard on the first punt short of 23-0) is as good as it gets. Our average starting point was our 31 yard line. Theirs was their 22. We were a total of 130 yards closer to the goal in 14 possessions for each team. That’s an extra +130 yards of hidden offense for us.

We had amazing success on second down pass plays. We gained 300 yards and scored 3TDs on 22 plays, 16 of which we ‘won’. Overall, we went from 55-55 on our offensive plays from scrimmage vs. UNC to 71-41 vs. NC State, a better team.

NC State had come in converting 55% of their third downs. We got them down to 40% in this game, mostly by winning 9 of 13 of their third down passing plays, despite the quality of their passing game and the injuries to our pass defense. I think the aggressive line play had a lot to do with that.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 10-0 + 11-0 + 6-1 + 10-0 + 6-0 + 8-0 + 5-0 + 9-0 = 65-1
P: 4-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 7-0 + 3-2 + 3-4 + 4-1 = 30-9
FG: 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-1 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 2-1 + 3-0 = 21-2
XP: 7-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 2-0 + 4-0 + 4-0 + 6-0 = 40-0
Kicking plays total: 23-0 + 22-1 + 16-3 + 23-0 + 18-0 + 18-2 + 14-5 + 22-1 = 156-12

1r: 14-16 + 15-7 + 13-13 + 16-7 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 11-5 + 8-10 = 95-71
1p: 3-5 + 9-6 + 6-4 + 11-5 + 9-6 + 5-9 + 10-15 + 9-10 = 62-60
First Down Total: 17-21 + 24-13 + 19-17 + 27-12 + 14-11 + 18-17 + 21-20 + 17-20 = 157-131
2r: 9-6 + 8-5 + 5-8 + 8-3 + 6-2 + 8-5 + 5-3 + 4-4 = 53-36
2p: 5-9 + 5-9 + 6-9 + 4-5 + 6-10 + 5-8 + 9-11 + 16-6 = 56-67
Second Down Total: 14-15 + 13-14 + 11-17 + 12-8 + 12-12 + 13-13 + 14-14 + 20-10 = 109-103
3r: 7-6 + 2-0 + 6-5 + 3-1 + 1-5 + 5-1 + 1-2 + 3-1= 28-21
3p: 1-4 + 5-6 + 4-5 + 1-7 + 2-7 + 5-7 + 3-9 + 3-4 = 24-49
Third Down Total: 8-10 + 7-6 + 10-10 + 4-8 + 3-12 + 10-8 + 4-11 + 6-5 = 52-70
4r: 2-1 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 4-3
4p: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 2-1 + 2-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 = 6-5

Total on running plays: 32-29 + 26-13 + 24-27 + 27-11 +13-12 + 26-14 + 17-10 + 15-15 = 180-131
Total on passing plays: 9-18 + 20-21 + 16-18 + 17-17 + 17-24 + 15-24 + 22-36 + 28-20 = 144-178
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-47+ 46-34 + 40-45 + 44-28 + 30-36 + 41-38 + 39-46 + 43-35 = 324-309

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 5-2 + 3-5 +3-5+ 0-8 + 0-3 + 3-1 + 2-4 + 6-5 = 22-33

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 69-49 + 71-40 + 59-53 + 67-36 + 48-39 + 62-41 + 55-55 + 71-41 = 502-354


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 6-1 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-6 + 0-8 + 1-5 + 1-6 = 14-29
P: 3-2 + 7-1 + 4-5 + 3-7 + 1-3 + 3-2 + 1-5 + 2-3 = 24-28
FG: 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-3 + 2-3 + 0-2 = 4-11
XP: 0-7 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-5 + 0-4 + 0-5 = 0-29
Kicking plays total: 10-10 + 10-3 + 5-7 + 5-12 +2-14 + 3-18 + 4-17 + 3-16 = 42-97

1r: 8-7 + 16-4 + 5-4 + 9-10 + 6-19 + 9-15 + 8-9 + 11-6 = 72-74
1p: 10-11 + 6-3 + 10-6 + 4-7 + 6-8 + 5-4 + 10-13 + 6-10 = 57-62
First Down Total: 18-18 + 22-7 + 15-10 + 13-17 + 12-27 + 14-19 + 18-22 + 17-16 = 129-136
2r: 3-6 + 11-3 + 5-1 + 5-6 + 7-12 + 7-8 + 11-4 + 5-4 = 54-44
2p: 5-3 + 4-6 + 10-4 + 6-6 + 5-3 + 4-3 + 7-7 + 6-10 = 47-42
Second Down Total: 8-9 + 15-9 + 15-5 + 11-12 + 12-15 + 11-11 + 18-11 + 11-14 = 101-86
3r: 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 2-1 + 2-3 + 2-2 + 6-1+ 0-2 = 19-13
3p: 1-5 + 10-3 + 10-0 + 8-3 + 8-2 + 7-1+ 9-7 + 9-4 = 62-25
Third Down Total: 2-6 + 13-5 + 13-1 + 10-4 + 10-5 + 9-3 + 15-8 + 9-6 = 81-38
4r: 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 1-2 + 0-0 = 2-6
4p: 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 = 3-2
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 = 5-8

Total on running plays: 12-14 + 31-10 + 13-6 + 16-18 + 15-35 + 18-26 + 26-16 + 16-12 = 147-137
Total on passing plays: 17-20 + 20-12 + 31-10 + 18-16 + 19-14 + 16-8 + 27-27 + 21-24 = 169-131
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-34 + 51-22 + 44-16 + 34-34 + 34-49 + 34-34 + 53-43 + 37-36 = 316-268

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 7-0 + 5-1 + 3-1+ 2-0 + 0-4 + 1-0 + 2-3 = 21-12

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 40-47, 68-25, 54-24, 42-47+ 38-63 + 37-56 + 58-60 + 42-55 = 379-377

Overall game total: 109-96 + 139-65 + 113-77 + 109-83 + 86-102 + 99-97 + 113-114 + 113-96 = 881-730

Comment: It didn’t seem so against Clemson and Pitt but we are doing much better on first down runs, (95-71) and our opposition is (72-74). That sets up third and short or at least makeable situation. Overall our running game is 180-131 vs. 147-137 for the other guys. But our passing game is only 144-178 and only 24-49 on third down. (That may be about to change.) Our pass defense has been pretty good, 169-131, especially on third down 62-25.

In Dino’s first year we were 172-249 on our running plays and 269-282 on our passing plays
In Dino’s second year we were 219-229 on our running plays and 252-322 on our passing plays
So we’ve declined as a passing team, (primarily due to losing Amba Etta-Tawo, Steve Ismael an(9and will get better than ever next year. I also think our running game will get better, both because of better personnel and maturity. We are averaging 43ppg as it is. What are we going to see in the future?

In Dino’s first year we were 212-259 on their running plays and 212-186 on their passing plays
In Dino’s second year we were 212-216 on their running plays and 222-184 on their passing plays
Our defense has improved to win against both kinds of plays. They will also get better and the offensive and defensive units will come to compliment them even more.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 Southern California 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 5 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 114 = -1
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17 We’ve ‘won’ 6 of 8 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 8,538 plays, (48.7%) and 35 games, (37.2%). The opposition has won 8,980 plays and 57 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 442 more plays than we have in 94 games, an average of 4.70 plays a game.