Winning Plays - Pittsburgh

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more games before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the new first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated.
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’m undecided about whether to count a scramble as a running play or passing play. For now, I’ll count it as a running play and put an ‘S’ next to it in case I change my mind. Thus an S in running plays is a scramble, an S in passing plays a sack. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.


When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: Pitt 35, Pitt 35, Pitt 36, Pitt 29, Pitt 23, Pitt 35, Pitt 22, Failed Onsides SU 44, Failed Onsides SU 43, Failed Onsides Pitt45
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 8
P: 34 to Pitt 2, 48 to Pitt 32, 0 to SU 35, 35 to Pitt 31, 43 to Pitt 34, 52 to Pitt 7
Total: Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 2
FG: No attempts
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, No Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, No Good
Total: Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 2
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 13 Pittsburgh 12

1r: 2, 5, 2TD, -3, -1, 6, 2, 11, 4, 6, 8, 3, 3, 4, 0, 2, 6, 3, 42, 2, 11, 6
Total: Syracuse 12 Pittsburgh 10
1p: I, I, I, 3, 9, -7(S), 12, 10, 8, 5, 8, 5TD, 41(15), 7, I, 5, 17, -2, 12, 8, 9, 16, I, I, I
Total: Syracuse 15 Pittsburgh10
First Down Total: Syracuse 27 Pittsburgh 20
2r: 3, 3, 4, 5(4), 5TD, 3(2), 2(4), -1, 4(2), 2(7), 0, 1(8), 2, 7(4), 8(7), 19(2), 2(1), 4
Total: Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 8
2p: 12(8), 5, 5, I, 8(16), 7(1), I, I, 5(11), 7(6), 6(2), I, I, 7(5), 6(12), 3(8), I, 24(P), I
Total: Syracuse 10 Pittsburgh 9
Second Down Total: Syracuse 20 Pittsburgh 17
3r: 6(3), 3(13), 0, 42TD, 0
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 3
3p: 8(7), 6(5), I, 25(5), I, 30(17), 7(2), INT-TD, -7(S), 4(8), 12(6), I, -4(S), 13(10)
Total: Syracuse 7 Pittsburgh 7
Third Down Total: Syracuse 9 Pittsburgh 10
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
4p: 7TD, 49TD, 22
Total: Syracuse3 Pittsburgh 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 24 Pittsburgh 21
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 35 Pittsburgh 26
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 59 Pittsburgh 47

Penalties not tacked on to plays: -5, -5, +5, -5, -5, +15, -5, +15, +5 Syracuse 4 Pittsburgh 5

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: Syracuse 76 Pittsburgh 64

Comments: A team will normally dominate their own kick-offs. Pitt won 9 of their 12 kickoffs- and 8 of our 10. SU we were 5-17 on kickoffs overall. Our average starting point after a Pitt kick-off was our 23 ½. The average starting point after our kick-offs was their 37. Part of it was Quadree Henderson, Pitt’s electric kick returner who is averaging 30 yards a kickoff return and has taken three of them the distance, (he also has scored on a punt). Some he returned. Some we intentionally kicked out of bounds to avoid Henderson, (which, to me is still a Pitt for Pitt as it puts the ball on the 35 yard line). Then there was the three unsuccessful onsides kicks. I don’t know what the percentages are on the kicking team getting possession is but I know .000 is bad. I thought that on our returns that Sean Riley was making the mistake of running it out of the end zone when taking a knee is the equivalent of a 25 yard return but that happened only twice in 25 kicks, though there’s a lesson in the fact that he only ogt out to the SU 9 and SU 17 on those occasions.

We had 47 unsuccessful offensive plays from scrimmage and still wound up +12. We had no fourth down running plays. We lost third down running plays 2-3. We won every other down, run or pass. The fact that we had 47 first down plays shows how well our offense was working. That’s Dino’s dream: move the chains, tire them out and break their spirits. We saw that a few times this year. We’ll see it a lot more next year.


When PITTSBURGH had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 20, SU 26, SU 9, SU 32, SU 38, SU 11, SU 15, SU 17, SU 35, SU 31, SU 23
Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 9
P: 38 to Pitt 45, 47 to SU 8, 33 to Pitt 45
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 1
FG: None attempted
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, Good, No Good
Total: Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 10
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 20

1r: 1, 12, 3, 6, 6TD, 5, 21, 9, -1, 22(P), 5, 77TD, 0, 5, 1 -3, 3, 1(1), 42, 1TD, -1(V)
Total: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 13
1p: I, INT, 35TD, I, 18, I, I, 66TD, I
Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 3
First Down Total: Syracuse 14 Pittsburgh 16
2r: 2(11), 5(9), 0, 9, 1, 5, 7(5), -6, 2(13), 34(7), -2V
Total: Syracuse 6 Pittsburgh 5
2p: 59TD, 16(7), 34(5), 10(11), I, 10(5), 18, I
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 6
Second Down Total: Syracuse 8 Pittsburgh 11
3r: 4(9), 4(1), 2(1), 13TD, FUM
Total: Syracuse 2 Pittsburgh 3
3p: 9(4), I, 79TD, 6TD
Total: Syracuse 1 Pittsburgh 3
Third Down Total: Syracuse 3 Pittsburgh 6
4r: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
4p: None
Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 0

Total on running plays: Syracuse 16 Pittsburgh 21
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 9 Pittsburgh 12
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 25 Pittsburgh 33

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +5 Syracuse 0 Pittsburgh 1

Game total when PITTSBURGH had the ball: Syracuse 31 Pittsburgh 54

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118

Comment: We lost another one in “winning plays”. But it was 84-80 in plays from scrimmage. Surprisingly, we had only two less “explosive” plays, (that gained over 20 yards), than they did, seven to nine: 42, 41, 24, 42, 25, 30, 49 vs. 21, 77, 42, 35, 66, 34, 59, 34, 79. But ours totaled 253 yards and produced 2 TDs. Theirs produced 447 yards and 5TDs.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 5-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-2, 1-5, 2-0, 4-1, 2-3, 0-1, 3-2, 1-1, 2-8 = 29-29
P: 3-0, 8-4, 3-2, 2-3, 6-3, 6-4, 3-0, 3-1, 5-3, 3-3, 7-2, 4-2 = 53-27
FG: 4-0, 0-1, 2-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 2-0, 0-0, 0-0 = 10-8
XP: 3-0, 4-0, 2-0, 4-0, 3-2, 1-0, 4-0, 4-0, 0-0, 2-0, 2-0, 7-2 = 36-4
Kicking plays total: 15-3, 15-6, 10-4, 10-7, 10-11, 9-4, 12-3, 9-5, 5-5, 10-5, 10-3, 13-12 = 128-68

r: 5-10, 6-12, 11-14, 4-11, 6-8, 4-11, 9-10, 6-11, 6-9, 1-9, 3-9, 12-10 = 73-124
1p: 12-7, 8-12, 7-10, 9-5, 14-10, 6-7, 9-14, 13-6, 3-11, 3-8, 6-9, 15-10 = 105-109
First Down Total: 17-17, 14-24, 18-24, 13-16, 20-18, 10-18, 18-24, 19-17, 9-20, 4-17, 9-18, 27-20 = 178-233
2r: 3-8, 5-7, 9-9, 1-4, 8-6, 5-9, 12-6, 5-5, 2-7, 3-7, 4-11, 10-8 = 67-87
2p: 8-7, 8-13, 8-5, 9-8, 9-7, 3-4, 6-8, 13-4, 5-7, 3-5, 5-9, 10-9 = 87-86
Second Down Total: 11-15, 13-20, 17-14, 10-12, 17-13, 8-13, 18-14, 18-9, 7-14, 6-12, 9-20, 20-17 = 154-173
3r: 3-3, 6-1, 2-6, 3-2, 2-5, 3-4, 2-2, 1-3, 1-1, 3-3, 0-1, 2-3 = 28-34
3p: 6-6, 6-9, 13-4, 6-4, 1-8, 2-7, 8-9, 5-5, 4-9, 2-5, 4-9, 7-7 = 64-82
Third Down Total: 9-9, 12-10, 15-10, 9-6, 3-13, 5-11, 10-11, 6-8, 5-10, 5-8, 4-10, 9-10 = 92-116
4r: 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0 = 4-4
4p: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 4-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-0 = 13-5
Fourth Down Total: 3-0, 0-1, 2-3, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 4-1, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1, 0-2, 3-0 =17-9

Total on running plays: 12-21, 17-20, 23-30, 8-17, 17-19, 12-24, 23-19, 12-19, 10-17, 7-20, 7-22, 24-21 = 172-249
Total on passing plays: 28-20, 22-35, 29-21, 24-17, 24-25, 12-18, 27-31, 32-15, 12-28, 9-18, 15-28, 35-26 = 269-282
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-41, 39-55, 52-51, 32-34, 41-44, 24-42, 50-50, 44-34, 22-45, 16-38, 22-50, 59-47 = 441-531

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 0-4, 3-3, 2-7, 0-2, 2-4, 0-3, 3-5, 1-8, 0-5, 1-3, 4-6, 4-5 = 20-55

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 55-48, 57-64, 64-62, 42-43, 53-59, 33-49, 65-58, 54-47, 27-55, 27-46, 36-59, 76-64 = -589-654

Comment: We are supposed to be an exciting offensive team but the defense won 531 of 972 plays when we snapped the ball, (55%). The only downs we won were second down passes, (by one) and fourth down passes, (where we were an excellent 13-5).Going 29-29 on kick-offs is a poor record. We also missed 8 field goals and 4 extra points.


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 0-2, 2-8, 2-6, 3-2, 2-7, 1-5, 0-4, 0-3, 2-8, 1-5, 2-5, 3-9 = 18-64
P: 4-7, 1-5, 1-5, 1-4, 4-1, 2-5, 1-3, 2-4, 1-2, 3-1, 3-0, 2-1 = 25-38
FG: 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0 = 5-12
XP: 0-1, 0-8, 0-6, 0-3, 0-6, 0-4, 1-1, 0-2, 1-6, 0-5, 0-6, 1-10 = 3-58
Kicking plays total: 4-10, 4-23, 3-18, 4-10, 7-16, 3-14, 3-9, 2-11, 5-18, 4-11, 6-12, 6-20 = 51-172

1r: 10-4, 6-20, 4-12, 9-11, 14-5, 9-10, 10-9, 9-9, 12-15, 12-15, 11-18, 8-13 = 114-141
1p: 4-4, 8-9, 7-8, 9-5, 7-13, 5-8, 9-4, 5-3, 9-5, 6-5, 7-7, 6-3 = 82-74
First Down Total: 14-8, 14-29, 11-20, 18-16, 21-18, 14-18, 19-13, 14-12, 21-20, 18-20, 18-25, 14-16 = 196-215
2r: 9-3, 4-6, 4-8, 5-8, 2-8, 9-8, 7-7, 8-7, 7-6, 7-7, 3-10, 6-5 = 71-83
2p: 6-0, 8-4, 4-2, 8-9, 5-6, 3-2, 1-10, 4-1, 7-11, 6-4, 3-7, 2-6 = 57-62
Second Down Total: 15-3, 12-10, 8-10, 13-17, 7-14, 12-10, 8-17, 12-8, 14-17, 13-11, 6-17, 8-11 = 128-145
3r: 0-2, 1-3, 1-2, 4-2, 2-1, 6-5, 1-3, 2-3, 5-1, 0-4, 0-1, 2-3 = 24-30
3p: 11-3, 8-3, 7-2, 8-7, 6-1, 3-4, 5-3, 7-2, 2-7, 8-6, 4-4, 1-3 = 70-45
Third Down Total: 11-5, 9-6, 8-4, 12-9, 8-2, 9-9, 6-6, 9-5, 7-8, 8-10, 4-5, 3-6 = 94-75
4r: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0 = 3-5
4p: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-2, 1-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-0, 0-0 = 3-5
Fourth Down Total: 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-4, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-2, 0-3, 0-0, 0-0 = 6-10

Total on running plays: 19-9, 11-29, 9-23, 19-23, 18-14, 25-23, 19-19, 19-19, 24-23, 19-27, 14-29, 16-21 = 212-259
Total on passing plays: 21-7, 24-16, 18-12, 26-23, 19-20, 11-14, 15-17, 17-6, 18-24, 20-17, 14-18, 9-12 = 212-186
Total on plays from scrimmage: 40-16, 35-45, 27-35, 45-46, 37-34, 36-37, 34-36, 36-25, 42-47, 39-44, 28-47, 25-33 = 424-445

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 2-0, 3-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 1-2, 0-1 = 11-11

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 46-26, 42-68, 31-54, 49-56, 45-52, 39-52, 38-46, 39-37, 47-65, 44-57, 35-61, 31-54 = 486-628

Overall Game Total: 101-74, 99-132, 95-116, 91-99, 98-111, 72-101, 103-104, 93-84, 74-120, 71-103, 71-120, 107-118 = 1075-1282

Comment: We were +60 in the kicking game, (128-68) but our opposition was +121 (51-172). They are all big plays. Our defense, bad as it was actually competitive against the other team’s offense, (424- 445). It’s just that when we failed, we failed big-time.

 

[SWC75]

HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only- games we ‘won’ are in bold, games tied in italics.)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65
Syracuse 75 USC 90
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 We 'won' 4 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116
Syracuse 92 USC 98
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98
Syracuse 98 Temple 81
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136
Syracuse 111 N C State 85
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102
Syracuse 92 N C State 101
Syracuse 78 Duke 98
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100
Syracuse 89 Boston College 78
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 6,480 plays, (47.9%) and 25 games, (34.7%). The opposition has won 7,040 plays and 46 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 577 more plays than we have in the last 6 seasons, an average of 96 plays per season. In the last three years we are 6-28-2 after being 19-19 in the three years before that, (based on "winning plays").

 

[Ottoble]

Comment: We were +60 in the kicking game, (128-68) but our opposition was +121 (51-172). They are all big plays. Our defense, bad as it was actually competitive against the other team’s offense, (424- 445). It’s just that when we failed, we failed big-time.

This is the most interesting stat of the whole thing when you look at the season because the Tampa 2 is supposed to eliminate 'Big Plays' by keeping everything in front of the defense.
"Bend don't break."

I think overall we had some personnel fit and more specifically depth concerns running this defense from the get-go, then we were saddled with multiple tough injuries to our defensive backfield allowing this big play number to get even worse.

 

[SWC75]

This is the most interesting stat of the whole thing when you look at the season because the Tampa 2 is supposed to eliminate 'Big Plays' by keeping everything in front of the defense.
"Bend don't break."

I think overall we had some personnel fit and more specifically depth concerns running this defense from the get-go, then we were saddled with multiple tough injuries to our defensive backfield allowing this big play number to get even worse.

We bent and broke.