Winning Plays - Wake Forest

[SWC75]

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula:

- On first down, the offensive team wants to get at least a third of the way to a new first down: they will have two more plays before they might have to surrender the ball and if they gain that same amount of yards on each of those two plays, they’ll get the first down. If they don’t make it a third of the way to a new first down, the defense won the play.
- On second down, the offense wants to get at least halfway to a new first down by the same logic.
- On third and fourth down, they want to get the first down.
- Penalties, if added onto a play by the referees, are added on to the results above. If the offense gains 5 yards on first down but there was holding and they lost yardage instead, the defense won the play. If a running back made a 20 yard run on first and ten and the holding was 15 yards downfield, turning it into a 5 yard gain, that’s still a win for the offense. If the defense is penalized and it’s tacked on, again the net result is what is evaluated. The penalties I’ve listed negated the play entirely and are a “loss” for the penalized team and thus a win for their opponent. .
- If a penalty was not tacked onto a play, it’s a lost play for the team being penalized. I'll count them separate from the other plays from scrimmage because I don't know if the intended play before the penalty would have been a run or a pass - so i wouldn't know where to put it in the chart below.
- A turnover is, obviously, a win for the team that wound up with the ball.
- On a kick-off a touchback brings the ball out to the 25 yard line. Teams still seem to be trying to kick the ball into the end zone and avoid a runback if they can, so any kick-off that results in the receiving team starting between their goal line and their 25 is a win for the kicking team. Beyond that, the receiving team wins.
- On a punt, a touchback takes the ball out of the 20. So any punt that results in the other team taking over from their goal line to their 20 is a win for the punting team. If the next change in field position is at least 40 yards, the punting tam has also won the play.
- A successful place kick is, obviously, a win for the kicking team.
- Any play that results in a touchdown is, obviously, a win for that team that scores it.
- A “victory play” where a team accepts a loss just to let the clock run out, is a win for the offensive team.

I will indicate in parenthesis how many yards there were to go to get a new first down, (if other than 10), unless it was for no gain or negative yardage. If it was a touchdown, (“TD)” a scramble/sack (“S”) a victory play (“V”) or involved a penalty (P). I’ll treat a scramble or a sack as a passing play as the Cuse.com play by play now tells you when it’s either of those two. 1R means first down running plays. 1P means first down passing plays, etc.

When Syracuse had the ball:

KO: WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25, WF 25
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 0
P: 28 to SU 47, 50 to WF 15, 42 to SU 46, 19 to WF 24, 60 to WF 10 , 48 to WF 6, 31 to WF 24
Total: Syracuse 4 Wake Forest 3
FG: Good from 28, Good from 34
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 0
XP: Good, Good, Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 0
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 3

1r: 4, 11, -1, 2, 10, 4, 2, 8TD, 6, 4, 4, 1, 4, 2, -2v, 7, 14, 5TD, 1, 19, 11, 1, 1, 15, 1, 3, -1v, -1v
Total: Syracuse 17 Wake Forest 13
1p: 4, 6, -6s, 2(5), 8, 0, 4, 13, 3, I, I, 6(9), 3, 4(9)
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 6
First Down Total: Syracuse 25 Wake Forest 19
2r: 18(8), 3(6), 2(4), 2(4), 2(9), 0, 2(3), 5(4), 7, 1(7), 5(12)
Total: Syracuse 6 Wake Forest 4
2p: I, I, I, I, I, 4(6), -1, 6(8), 9(3), 7(2), 14(9), 7(6), 3(9), 5(7), 12, -3
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 8
Second Down Total: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 12
3r: -2, 1, 4(2), 5(2), 16(17), 3(2), 1TD, 13(3), 26TD, 11(5), 1(6)
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 4
3p: I, I, 33(6), I, 13s(6), -2s, 10(11), I, 8(4), I, -6s
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 8
Third Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 12
4r: 1TD, 0, 2(1)
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1
4p: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 32 Wake Forest 22
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 19 Wake Forest 22
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 51 Wake Forest 44

Penalties not tacked on to plays:+15, +15, +15, +15, -5, +5, +10, -5 Syracuse 5 Wake Forest 2

Game total when Syracuse had the ball: Syracuse 75 Wake Forest 49


When Wake Forest had the ball:

KO: SU 25, SU 25, SU 35, SU 25, SU 25
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 4
P: 52 to SU 15, 47 to SU 4, 30 to 50, 53 to SU 20, 31 to SU 43, 41 to 25
Total: Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 4
FG: Good from 22
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 1
XP: Good, Good, Good
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 3
Kicking plays total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 12

1r: 1, 4, 2TD, 1, 15, 3, 0, 2, Fumble, 4, -3, 4, 9, 4, 7, 9, 3, 1, 7
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 10
1p: -3s, I, -5s, 7, -11s, -2s, 27, 6, 20TD, 11, 10, 8TD, 9, 23, Interception, 28, 17, 13, I
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 12
First Down Total: Syracuse 15 Wake Forest 22
2r: 7(9), 10(6), -2, 7(13), 14(21), 9(12), 0, 4(4), 11(10, 5(6), 4(3), 2(10, -1, 6(1)
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 11
2p: I, 20(9), -4s, 5(9), -7s, 6(15), I, I, 6(7), 15(3), I
Total: Syracuse 7 Wake Forest 4
Second Down Total: Syracuse 10 Wake Forest 15
3r: 7(13), 17(9), 2(3), 2(1), -3
Total: Syracuse 3 Wake Forest 2
3p: I, I, I, I, I, I, 9(6), 14(6), I, 11(19)
Total: Syracuse 8 Wake Forest 2
Third Down Total: Syracuse 11 Wake Forest 4
4r: none
Total: Syracuse 0 Wake Forest 0
4p: 24(6), I
Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1
Fourth Down Total: Syracuse 1 Wake Forest 1

Total on running plays: Syracuse 14 Wake Forest 23
Total on passing plays: Syracuse 23 Wake Forest 19
Total on plays from scrimmage: Syracuse 37 Wake Forest 42

Penalties not tacked on to plays: +3, -5, -5, -5, +9, -10 Syracuse 2 Wake Forest 4

Game total when Wake Forest had the ball: Syracuse 42 Wake Forest 58

Overall Game Total: Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107

Comments: Sterling Hofrichter’s punting record in this game is erratic. Two things have to be remembered: 1) the wind made kicking difficult and 2) Sterling went to the “Australian” style, kicking on the run and low, trying to get the ball to bounce forward. The results of such a style are inherently erratic.

We missed out first five second down passes but they missed their first six third down passes.

In the last two games we’ve won our offensive plays 71-41 and 75-49. We did it by passing the first time and running the second, as well dominating special teams. Our average starting point in 18 possession, per the drive chart on Cuse.com, was our 32. Theirs was at their 27. We were a total of 1,216 yards from the goal in 18 possessions. They were a total of 1,156 yards from their goal in 16 possessions. That’s a hidden offense of 140 yards in our favor.

 

[SWC75]

GAME BY GAME and TOTALS FOR THE YEAR

When SYRACUSE had the ball:

KO: 10-0 + 11-0 + 6-1 + 10-0 + 6-0 + 8-0 + 5-0 + 9-0 + 8-0 = 73-1
P: 4-0 + 1-1 + 4-1 + 4-0 + 7-0 + 3-2 + 3-4 + 4-1 + 4-3 = 34-12
FG: 2-0 + 2-0 + 3-1 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 3-0 + 2-1 + 3-0 + 2-0 = 23-2
XP: 7-0 + 8-0 + 3-0 + 6-0 + 2-0 + 4-0 + 4-0 + 6-0 + 5-0 = 45-0
Kicking plays total: 23-0 + 22-1 + 16-3 + 23-0 + 18-0 + 18-2 + 14-5 + 22-1 + 19-3 = 175-15

1r: 14-16 + 15-7 + 13-13 + 16-7 + 5-5 + 13-8 + 11-5 + 8-10 + 17-13 = 112-84
1p: 3-5 + 9-6 + 6-4 + 11-5 + 9-6 + 5-9 + 10-15 + 9-10 + 8-6 = 70-66
First Down Total: 17-21 + 24-13 + 19-17 + 27-12 + 14-11 + 18-17 + 21-20 + 17-20 + 25-19 = 182-150
2r: 9-6 + 8-5 + 5-8 + 8-3 + 6-2 + 8-5 + 5-3 + 4-4 + 6-4 = 59-40
2p: 5-9 + 5-9 + 6-9 + 4-5 + 6-10 + 5-8 + 9-11 + 16-6 + 8-8 = 64-75
Second Down Total: 14-15 + 13-14 + 11-17 + 12-8 + 12-12 + 13-13 + 14-14 + 20-10 + 14-12 = 123-115
3r: 7-6 + 2-0 + 6-5 + 3-1 + 1-5 + 5-1 + 1-2 + 3-1+ 7-4 = 35-25
3p: 1-4 + 5-6 + 4-5 + 1-7 + 2-7 + 5-7 + 3-9 + 3-4 + 3-8 = 27-57
Third Down Total: 8-10 + 7-6 + 10-10 + 4-8 + 3-12 + 10-8 + 4-11 + 6-5 + 10-12 = 62-82
4r: 2-1 + 1-1 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 2-1 = 6-4
4p: 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 2-2
Fourth Down Total: 2-1 + 2-1 + 0-1 + 1-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 2-1 = 8-6

Total on running plays: 32-29 + 26-13 + 24-27 + 27-11 +13-12 + 26-14 + 17-10 + 15-15 + 32-22 = 212-153
Total on passing plays: 9-18 + 20-21 + 16-18 + 17-17 + 17-24 + 15-24 + 22-36 + 28-20 + 19-22 = 163-200
Total on plays from scrimmage: 41-47+ 46-34 + 40-45 + 44-28 + 30-36 + 41-38 + 39-46 + 43-35 + 51-44 = 375-353

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 5-2 + 3-5 +3-5+ 0-8 + 0-3 + 3-1 + 2-4 + 6-5 + 5-2 = 27-35

Game total when SYRACUSE had the ball: 69-49 + 71-40 + 59-53 + 67-36 + 48-39 + 62-41 + 55-55 + 71-41 + 75-49 = 577-403


When OPPONENT had the ball:

KO: 6-1 + 3-0 + 1-1 + 2-2 + 0-6 + 0-8 + 1-5 + 1-6 + 1-4 = 15-33
P: 3-2 + 7-1 + 4-5 + 3-7 + 1-3 + 3-2 + 1-5 + 2-3 + 2-4 = 26-32
FG: 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 0-0 + 1-2 + 0-3 + 2-3 + 0-2 + 0-1 = 4-12
XP: 0-7 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-3 + 0-3 + 0-5 + 0-4 + 0-5 + 0-3 = 0-32
Kicking plays total: 10-10 + 10-3 + 5-7 + 5-12 +2-14 + 3-18 + 4-17 + 3-16 + 3-12 = 45-109

1r: 8-7 + 16-4 + 5-4 + 9-10 + 6-19 + 9-15 + 8-9 + 11-6 + 8-10 = 80-84
1p: 10-11 + 6-3 + 10-6 + 4-7 + 6-8 + 5-4 + 10-13 + 6-10 + 7-12 = 64-74
First Down Total: 18-18 + 22-7 + 15-10 + 13-17 + 12-27 + 14-19 + 18-22 + 17-16 + 15-22 = 144-158
2r: 3-6 + 11-3 + 5-1 + 5-6 + 7-12 + 7-8 + 11-4 + 5-4 + 3-11 = 57-55
2p: 5-3 + 4-6 + 10-4 + 6-6 + 5-3 + 4-3 + 7-7 + 6-10 + 7-4 = 54-46
Second Down Total: 8-9 + 15-9 + 15-5 + 11-12 + 12-15 + 11-11 + 18-11 + 11-14 + 10-15 = 111-101
3r: 1-1 + 3-2 + 3-1 + 2-1 + 2-3 + 2-2 + 6-1+ 0-2 + 3-2 = 22-15
3p: 1-5 + 10-3 + 10-0 + 8-3 + 8-2 + 7-1+ 9-7 + 9-4 + 8-2= 70-27
Third Down Total: 2-6 + 13-5 + 13-1 + 10-4 + 10-5 + 9-3 + 15-8 + 9-6 + 11-4 = 92-42
4r: 0-0 + 1-1 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 0-1 + 1-2 + 0-0 + 0-0 = 2-6
4p: 1-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 + 0-0 + 1-0 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 4-3
Fourth Down Total: 1-1 + 1-1 + 1-0 + 0-1 + 0-2 + 0-1 + 2-2 + 0-0 + 1-1 = 6-9

Total on running plays: 12-14 + 31-10 + 13-6 + 16-18 + 15-35 + 18-26 + 26-16 + 16-12 + 14-23 = 161-160
Total on passing plays: 17-20 + 20-12 + 31-10 + 18-16 + 19-14 + 16-8 + 27-27 + 21-24 + 23-19 = 192-150
Total on plays from scrimmage: 29-34 + 51-22 + 44-16 + 34-34 + 34-49 + 34-34 + 53-43 + 37-36 + 37-42 = 353-310

Penalties not tacked on to plays: 1-3 + 7-0 + 5-1 + 3-1+ 2-0 + 0-4 + 1-0 + 2-3 + 2-4 = 23-16

Game total when OPPONENT had the ball: 40-47, 68-25, 54-24, 42-47+ 38-63 + 37-56 + 58-60 + 42-55 + 42-58 = 421-435

Overall game total: 109-96 + 139-65 + 113-77 + 109-83 + 86-102 + 99-97 + 113-115 + 113-96 + 117-107 = 998-838

Comment: Overall our running game is 212-153 vs. 161-160 for the other guys. But our passing game is only 163-200 and only 27-57 on third down. (That may be about to change.) Our pass defense has been pretty good, 192-150, especially on third down 70-27.

In Dino’s first year we were 172-249 on our running plays and 269-282 on our passing plays
In Dino’s second year we were 219-229 on our running plays and 252-322 on our passing plays
So we’ve declined as a passing team, (primarily due to losing Amba Etta-Tawo, Steve Ismael an(9and will get better than ever next year. I also think our running game will get better, both because of better personnel and maturity. We are averaging 43ppg as it is. What are we going to see in the future?

In Dino’s first year we were 212-259 on their running plays and 212-186 on their passing plays
In Dino’s second year we were 212-216 on their running plays and 222-184 on their passing plays
Our defense has improved to win against both kinds of plays. They will also get better and the offensive and defensive units will come to compliment them even more.


HISTORICAL WINNING PLAYS
(Game totals only)

2011
Syracuse 101 Wake Forest 87 = +14
Syracuse 92 Rhode Island 65 = +27
Syracuse 75 Southern California 90 = -15
Syracuse 96 Toledo 88 = +8
Syracuse 103 Rutgers 99 = +4
Syracuse 79 Tulane 99 = -20
Syracuse 90 West Virginia 84 = +6
Syracuse 74 Louisville 83 = -9
Syracuse 84 Connecticut 86 = -2
Syracuse 92 South Florida 106 = -14
Syracuse 83 Cincinnati 104 = -21
Syracuse 87 Pittsburgh 93 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,056 Opponents 1,117 = -61 We 'won' 5 of 12 games.

2012
Syracuse 105 Northwestern 116 = -11
Syracuse 92 Southern California 98 = -6
Syracuse 93 Stony Brook 82 = +11
Syracuse 82 Minnesota 95 = -13
Syracuse 85 Pittsburgh 76 = +9
Syracuse 93 Rutgers 73 = +20
Syracuse 103 Connecticut 70 = +33
Syracuse 115 South Florida 92 = +23
Syracuse 96 Cincinnati 122 = -26
Syracuse 103 Louisville 86 = +17
Syracuse 92 Missouri 98 = -6
Syracuse 98 Temple 81 = -+17
Syracuse 105 West Virginia 82 +23
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,262 Opponents 1,171 = +91 We 'won' 8 of 13 games.

2013
Syracuse 75 Penn State 113 = -38
Syracuse 92 Northwestern 114 - = -22
Syracuse 115 Wagner 52 = +63
Syracuse 107 Tulane 76 = +31
Syracuse 64 Clemson 136 = -72
Syracuse 111 N C State 85 = +26
Syracuse 46 Georgia Tech 113 = -67
Syracuse 108 Wake Forest 81 = +27
Syracuse 92 Maryland 88 = +4
Syracuse 55 Florida State 104 = -49
Syracuse 80 Pittsburgh 96 = -16
Syracuse 100 Boston College 87 = +13
Syracuse 99 Minnesota 79 +20
TOTAL: Syracuse 1,144 Opponents 1,224 = -80 We 'won' 7 of 13 games.

2014
Syracuse 91 Villanova 103 = -12
Syracuse 99 Central Michigan 76 = +23
Syracuse 91 Maryland 91 = 0
Syracuse 71 Notre Dame 114 = -43
Syracuse 71 Louisville 100 = -29
Syracuse 80 Florida State 101 = -21
Syracuse 86 Wake Forest 77 = +9
Syracuse 75 Clemson 102 = -27
Syracuse 92 N C State 101 = -9
Syracuse 78 Duke 98 = -20
Syracuse 46 Pittsburgh 114 = -68
Syracuse 72 Boston College 78 = -6
TOTAL: Syracuse 952 Opponents 1,155 = -203 We 'won' 2 of 12 games, with one even.

2015
Syracuse 96 Rhode Island 56 = +40
Syracuse 83 Wake Forest 83 = 0
Syracuse 84 Central Michigan 91 = -7
Syracuse 84 Louisiana State 89 = -5
Syracuse 80 South Florida 93 = -13
Syracuse 86 Virginia 97 = -11
Syracuse 70 Pittsburgh 89 = -19
Syracuse 84 Florida State 100 = -16
Syracuse 74 Louisville 110 = -36
Syracuse 83 Clemson 105 = -22
Syracuse 78 North Carolina State 100 = -22

Syracuse 89 Boston College 78 = +11
TOTAL: Syracuse 991 Opponents 1091 = -100 We 'won' 2 of 12 games with one even.

2016
Syracuse 101 Colgate 74 = +27
Syracuse 99 Louisville 132 = -33
Syracuse 95 South Florida 116 = -21
Syracuse 91 Connecticut 99 = -8
Syracuse 98 Notre Dame 111 = -13
Syracuse 72 Wake Forest 101 = -29
Syracuse 103 Virginia Tech 104 = -1
Syracuse 93 Boston College 84 = +9
Syracuse 74 Clemson 120 = -46
Syracuse 71 North Carolina State 103 = -32
Syracuse 71 Florida State 120 = -49
Syracuse 107 Pittsburgh 118 = -11
TOTAL: Syracuse 1075 Opponent 1282 = -207 We 'won' 2 of 12 games.

2017
Syracuse 132 Central Connecticut 65 = +67
Syracuse 104 Middle Tennessee 98 = +6
Syracuse 107 Central Michigan 100 = +7
Syracuse 80 Louisiana State 103 = -23
Syracuse 93 North Carolina State 112 = -19
Syracuse 97 Pittsburgh 96 = +1
Syracuse 95 Clemson 97= -2
Syracuse 86 Miami 119 = -33
Syracuse 90 Florida State 108 = -18
Syracuse 120 Wake Forest 125 = -5
Syracuse 96 Louisville 100 = -4
Syracuse 77 Boston College 87 = -10
TOTAL: Syracuse 1177 Opponents 1210 = -33 We’ve ‘won’ 4 of12 games

2018
Syracuse 109 Western Michigan 96 = +13
Syracuse 139 Wagner 65 = +74
Syracuse 113 Florida State 77 = +36
Syracuse 109 Connecticut 83 = +26
Syracuse 86 Clemson 102= -16
Syracuse 99 Pittsburgh 97 = +2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina 115 = -2
Syracuse 113 North Carolina State 96 = +17
Syracuse 117 Wake Forest 107 = +10 We’ve ‘won’ 7 of 9 games

Totals since 2011: Syracuse has won 8,655 plays, (48.8%) and 36 games, (37.9%). The opposition has won 9,088 plays and 57 games with 2 games even. We’ve seen the opposition obtain their goals on 433 more plays than we have in 95 games, an average of 4.56 plays a game.