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[QUOTE="Knicks411, post: 1242860, member: 767"]
I think we can win 1 of the 3 home games, Duke/UVA/Lville.  If you just add up the 3 win probabilities Ken Pom has for those games, it .89 expected wins, for whatever that's worth.  So that doesn't totally help my argument.

I'm just looking at the schedule and trying to figure out where the wins over tournament teams are coming from.  Iowa has wins @Ohio State and @UNC, so that's a win that's going to look good in March.  Probably.  But I get what you're saying; I might rather trade a home Virginia game for a home UNC or home ND game; we'd have a much better chance of winning that one and we simply need to stack up some wins against teams that make the dance.  We could conceivably win 10 games in the league and have no league wins against tourny teams.  I think we need to root for Pitt and/or Miami to become more of a solid tournament team; we have 3 games against them, 2 of them at home.

That Nova game is just a killer.  They are probably going to win their league and a be a top 2 or 3 seed; even with the St. Johns and Michigan losses if we could pair a neutral site win over Iowa with a win @ Nova, that could have gone a long way.
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