Marsh01
Living Legend
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Thanks to GothamCuse for the work as well on this...
SEED GRID
14-Davidson (66)
14-Montana (75)
------------------------------
15-Loyola (MD) (79)
15-Lehigh (103)
15-Detroit (128)
15-LIU Brooklyn (87)
--------------------------------
THE NON-PLAY-INS
16-UT Arlington (102) [The other Southland contenders are Steph. . Austin (203) & Lamar (122)]
16-UNC Asheville (112)
THE PLAY-INS
16-MEAC Champ (fave now is Norfolk State - 133)
16-Vermont (156) or Stony Brook (144)
16-SWAC Champ (fave is Mississippi Valley State -154)
16-Western Kentucky (191)
NOTES/ANALYSIS: Some things cleared up but some things became more hazy last night. LIU Brooklyn won the NEC title game instead of Bob Morris, which means we now could potentially draw the NEC champ whereas if Pittsburgh-based Bob Morris won we couldn’t. Also, UT Arlington started its Southland tournament with a dominating 96-48 win in the quarters. If they follow through and win the thing, the Mavericks will have a strong case to be the final 15 and that would drop LIU into the best 16 seed. Lehigh’s win has no impact. They’ll be a 15. And Montana’s win also has no impact on us as they’ll be either the last 14 or first 15.
It’s not likely that things can change which conferences have their teams are in the two play-in games at this point. The four teams will come from the MEAC, America East, SWAC, and Sun Belt (WKU) as shown on the grid above. If Southland 2 seed Stephen . Austin, with its high 203 RPI, won the Southland you could make a case for them to be in a play-in and hence spare one of the historically NC conferences as the NCAA likes to do. In that case Norfolk State might avoid a play in. But I don’t expect Stephen . to win the Southland. It’ll be 1 seed Arlington or 3 seed Lamar.
BOTTOM LINE: UNC Asheville will be one of the 16 seeds playing a 1 seed directly (no play-in) and either LIU Brooklyn or the Southland winner will be the other 16 seed playing a 1 seed direct. If it’s LIU, we get them while Kansas gets UNC Asheville. If it’s the Southland team getting a 16, Kansas gets them and we get UNC Asheville. Right now, I predict 60 percent chance that we get Asheville and 40 percent chance we get LIU. Before last night it was 90 percent Asheville.
Here’s a couple of additional notes I discovered in the NCAA’s bracket principles document. In it the NCAA expressly says they avoid repeat non-conference regular season matchups and they avoid repeat NCAA tourney games of the last 2 years. UNC Tar Heels played Asheville in the regular season and they played LIU in last year’s NCAA tourney. That cements my view that UNC is getting a play-in involving two teams from the bottom four above. Also, SU played Vermont in NCAA First Round 2 years ago. So if Vermont beats Stony Brook in the America East, I don’t expect us to draw them. But I didn’t anyway. Whoever wins that game should have plane tickets ready for the Dayton play-in game.
SEED GRID
14-Davidson (66)
14-Montana (75)
------------------------------
15-Loyola (MD) (79)
15-Lehigh (103)
15-Detroit (128)
15-LIU Brooklyn (87)
--------------------------------
THE NON-PLAY-INS
16-UT Arlington (102) [The other Southland contenders are Steph. . Austin (203) & Lamar (122)]
16-UNC Asheville (112)
THE PLAY-INS
16-MEAC Champ (fave now is Norfolk State - 133)
16-Vermont (156) or Stony Brook (144)
16-SWAC Champ (fave is Mississippi Valley State -154)
16-Western Kentucky (191)
NOTES/ANALYSIS: Some things cleared up but some things became more hazy last night. LIU Brooklyn won the NEC title game instead of Bob Morris, which means we now could potentially draw the NEC champ whereas if Pittsburgh-based Bob Morris won we couldn’t. Also, UT Arlington started its Southland tournament with a dominating 96-48 win in the quarters. If they follow through and win the thing, the Mavericks will have a strong case to be the final 15 and that would drop LIU into the best 16 seed. Lehigh’s win has no impact. They’ll be a 15. And Montana’s win also has no impact on us as they’ll be either the last 14 or first 15.
It’s not likely that things can change which conferences have their teams are in the two play-in games at this point. The four teams will come from the MEAC, America East, SWAC, and Sun Belt (WKU) as shown on the grid above. If Southland 2 seed Stephen . Austin, with its high 203 RPI, won the Southland you could make a case for them to be in a play-in and hence spare one of the historically NC conferences as the NCAA likes to do. In that case Norfolk State might avoid a play in. But I don’t expect Stephen . to win the Southland. It’ll be 1 seed Arlington or 3 seed Lamar.
BOTTOM LINE: UNC Asheville will be one of the 16 seeds playing a 1 seed directly (no play-in) and either LIU Brooklyn or the Southland winner will be the other 16 seed playing a 1 seed direct. If it’s LIU, we get them while Kansas gets UNC Asheville. If it’s the Southland team getting a 16, Kansas gets them and we get UNC Asheville. Right now, I predict 60 percent chance that we get Asheville and 40 percent chance we get LIU. Before last night it was 90 percent Asheville.
Here’s a couple of additional notes I discovered in the NCAA’s bracket principles document. In it the NCAA expressly says they avoid repeat non-conference regular season matchups and they avoid repeat NCAA tourney games of the last 2 years. UNC Tar Heels played Asheville in the regular season and they played LIU in last year’s NCAA tourney. That cements my view that UNC is getting a play-in involving two teams from the bottom four above. Also, SU played Vermont in NCAA First Round 2 years ago. So if Vermont beats Stony Brook in the America East, I don’t expect us to draw them. But I didn’t anyway. Whoever wins that game should have plane tickets ready for the Dayton play-in game.
