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[QUOTE="pokercuse08, post: 4991363, member: 6535"]
The swings are bigger earlier in the season because each new data point is a bigger chunk of the pie. But the Pitt/VT game is a weird one. They beat VT at home by 15, started higher than we were before that game, and moved up 11 spots. We beat VT at home by 13, moved up 3.

What this indicates is that there was a big gap in NET rating between us at 85 and the teams at 81 and above, whereas Pitt jumped a bunch of closely rated teams.

The other thing is that our win wasn't the only input. NC State losing hurt us, Pitt losing hurt us, and LSU only winning by 1 against Georgia hurt us. We need NC State and Pitt in particular to finish strong. People are worried because they're potential bubble competition too, but we swept both of them, so in theory if they're on the bubble that's good for us. Tough to put them in and leave us out.

We have two wins over #78 NC State, one neutral W over #62 Oregon, one home win over #90 LSU, one over #93 Cornell.

If NC State moves up to 75 or better, we have a Q3 -> Q2 and Q2 -> Q1. If Oregon moves up to 50th or better, we get a Q2 -> Q1. If LSU or Cornell move up to the top 75, we add a Q2. I think if Cornell wins the Ivy League tournament, that can happen.

We have bad losses at home to #91 Florida State (probably not going to make it to the top 75 we need without hurting us in other ways), and on the road against #137 Georgia Tech. In particular if GT can move up to 135 or higher, that becomes a Q2 and we only have one bad loss on the resume.

NC State being top 75 and Georgia Tech top 135 are both VERY much within reach and VERY important to our resume.
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