2013 Bubble Chat

[jncuse]

First off, thankfully we have not been on bubble watch for the past five years.

Seems like the bubble busters have been mostly averted this year. Middle Tennessee St is still right on the bubble. Louisiana Tech lost early in the WAC, but its earlier loss last weekend to New Mexico St, really weakened its shot as a bubble buster.

Here are the last 8 teams in according to the matrix

Temple
Iowa St
Villanova
St. Mary's
Boise St
Kentucky
Lasalle
Tennessee

Iowa St's victory yesterday over Oklahoma sealed the deal for them IMO. I wouldn't rest comfortably if I was any of the other teams -- they are still not 100% safe from a committee "decision"

Here are the teams on the outside:

Middle Tennessee
Virginia
Ole Miss
Iowa
Southern Miss
Baylor

I will add Louisiana Tech as well. Also watch for UMass and Charlottte if they win again today.

There are some interesting teams on the outside which the committee may have differing views on. It will be interesting to see how the committee assesses them... and its also why if I was a group of the 8 that are above the line in the matrix should be uncomfortable.

Middle Tennessee St - #27 RPI, 28-5 record. No top 50 wins.

Virginia - 4-2 top 50 record, 8-3 top 100 record. I don't remember anybody being left with such a record -- at the same time I don't remember an at large with so many bad losses. One of the most unqiue resumes I ever remember. It will be interesting to see how the committee interprets it.

Committee's discussion on Virginia may set the tone for entire weekend. It could be the first real discussion of the committee. Commitee has to determine what to value -- good wins or bad losses. And this impacts more than the bubble. If it decides that Virignia is out because of bad losses, it could help Syracuse who has had no bad losses.

Iowa - Now 10-9 in B10. Sure that looks good, but they really benefitted from an uneven schedule. IMO if they get in, committee has failed to look at entire body of work -- and I suspect they may well get in.

 

[jncuse]

What do people think of Virginia in particular?

8-3 vs top 100
7-6 vs 101-200
1 sub 200 loss to RPI #318!! Old Dominion.

1. Will they get in?
2. Should they get in?

1 and 2 could very well be different.

 

[jncuse]

3 bubble games coming up in the next set of games:

Butler vs Lasalle - Most have Lasalle in, but I certainly would not want to have a 2-5 vs top 50, and 6-8 vs top 100 record, and be from a non BCS conference. Lasalle needs this one to have some level of comfort.

NC St vs Virginia - A win today may reverse the opinion of some of the committee members who are turned off by the bad losses.

Tennessee vs Alabama - Tennessee probably falls on wrong side with a loss (if they are not already there). Alabama needs to make SEC final IMO, and then may be discussed.

 

[jncuse]

Tough afternoon for the bubble:

Virginia loses
Lasalle loses
Tennessee down at the half

Not many teams left to take advantage of it.