So the season is upon us which means we will either double our frustration from football season or have a very welcome distraction. Figured I'd throw together a preview in a question and (my) answer format. Intriguing team, but completely unsure of what the ceiling is, which is pretty unusual. We'll start with the biggest question:
Can the whole be greater than the sum of its parts?
To me, this is probably the one question that sums up what our potential is. The bad news going into the season is there are a ton of question marks -- which we'll get to later -- but the only route I see to this team exceeding expectation and getting into maybe the low 20s for wins (let's say 22-24) is if it takes a page out of the 09-10 playbook. Essentially it may lack that dominant one-on-one guy but the ball movement and contributions of the group as a whole makes them better than the individual players themselves. If you remember, that 09-10 team only had Wes Johnson that ended up even sticking around the league for a while and as great as Wes was and respectable as his nba career has been, he's never averaged double-figures at the next level. Yet, that team was a bona fide title contender.
When I look at this team, it's hard to see that sort of ceiling but the best version of this group is a bunch of guys who can score (Hughes, Buddy, Guerrier, Girard) all sharing the ball and moving well without the ball while a bunch of grinders and hustlers do the dirty work and add some buckets here and there as well (Carey, Goodine, Marek, Sidibe).
Not sure that's enough to get us beyond maybe 11 conference wins but if Sidibe can stay more or less healthy and the frosh improve over the course of the year, who knows, maybe we're around for the second weekend again.
Will our offense be more effective than it has been the past two seasons?
Defense is going to be a bit of a question mark for this group but for the first time in a while we can put a lineup (or multiple lineups) with five good offensively players on the floor. Hughes, Buddy, Marek, Goodine, Girard, Guerrier, Braswell ... they can all bring something to the table offensively. Carey and Sidibe may not be great but they can play a bit on that end too.
So yes, the offense will be better. But how much better? Can Carey push the tempo and allow us to do more on slow break/secondary break opportunities? Can we get more ball movement and off-the-ball movement? Can we do something other than the high ball screen on the offensive end? This is probably the second most interesting question because theoretically the answer is yes, but I think are all probably in the same boat of needing to see it before we can believe it.
Can we rebound enough?
I feel like this might as well be 'can sidibe stay healthy most of the year'? Obviously rebounding will be a question most of the year as it is most seasons, but I'd feel a lot better if we could theoretically put a lineup of Guerrier/Marek/Sidibe on the floor together at times.
Can we defend enough?
We should have lineups that are good defensively but I'm not sure how much those lineups get on the floor together. Like Carey/Goodine/Sidibe/Marek/Gerrier possibly? Or that lineup with Goodine at the 1 and then Hughes inserted at the 2? I don't know that we'll ever see the latter lineup and I'd guess we won't see much of the former. So the question is can guys like Buddy (improved defensively last year but the last we saw him he was getting absolutely abused against baylor), Hughes (some nice defensive plays but inconsistent effort, or at least results on the defensive end last season), Marek if he has to play the 5, Guerrier as a frosh, Girard if he's getting minutes -- can those guys defend well enough that an improved offense could lead to more wins? Jury's out.
What will the rotation be?
The million dollar question every year usually comes down to somewhere between 6.5 and 7.5. I think we see a legit 8 this year and maybe 8.5. There will be games where guys like Girard or jalen play a bunch of minutes and maybe some games where they see a lot of time on the pine. There might be games where Sidibe is unavailable or not moving well enough to play extended minutes. Guerrier may look like a world beater at times but may take some lumps and maybe even a guy like Braswell gets involved.
But to me a lot of it comes down to the guys we know will play big minutes consistently (Buddy, Hughes, Marek, Sidibe if healthy) and the frosh who were recruited to come in and help from day one (Guerrier, Goodine, Girard, who was recruited heavily despite having four guards in the fold and not being an ideal fit for the zone). Add in Carey who will get every opportunity to prove he can handle the point and Braswell, who plays well when he gets minutes and may be needed if Guerrier has some bumps along the way. That's 9 and I figure we see eight of them at least at various points throughout the year -- just maybe not the same 8 each game.
Taking a stab at minutes distribution against legit opponents:
Hughes -- 35-37 mpg (could be closer to 40)
Buddy -- 28-30 mpg (some might think this is low but I think both frosh guards will play)
Marek -- 27 mpg
Sidibe -- 22 mpg (think injuries and/or ineffectiveness due to 'soreness' will limit his minutes this year, sadly)
Carey -- 23-226 mpg (his ability to blow by someone is enough to keep us trying to make him a PG but he's interesting b/c there is the chance it doesn't work and we don't see him on the floor much. so he's the wild card here.)
Girard -- 15 mpg
Goodine -- 22 mpg
Guerrier -- 28-30 mpg (haven't seen the scrimmages but getting more of a 'growing pains' vibe than a '1-and-done' vibe)
Will Jalen Carey be the point guard?
We don't really know this answer. But what we do know is that Carey's speed/quickness is something no one else on the roster has. If you consider that we'll be surrounding him with shooters -- that means we have to give him every opportunity in that role. Don't really know how this will play out because we have options, but his development into a legit rotation piece is a big part of the equation for us ... obviously.
Will Guerrier effectively replace or be an upgrade over Brissett?
I'd say this is the one question where I'm most at odds with the rest of this board. Brissett was frustrating and Guerrier looks like a more polished offensive player. Those both tend to make people feel good. But Brissett worked his a$$ off on the boards and played hard on defense as really our lone physical presence in most games.
If Guerrier is truly an offensive force who plays as big as his measurements, we're going to feel really good. We haven't seen that yet. I think he's going to be a nice player. Loved his high school film. But I'm not sure people understand just how impressive Oshae's freshman year was -- even with the atrocious efficiency. Expecting a frosh to come in and put up 15 and 8 (more or less what brissett did) is a really high bar.
At the end of the day I don't know what to expect here but I think those counting Braswell out entirely in terms of being a rotation piece may be a bit overconfident on what we have here. Then again, I could be wrong.
Can Marek put the ball in the basket?
One of these questions not talked about a lot but what happened to the marek that was scoring the ball well the last seven or so games of his freshman year? Love his passing but some scoring from him would be nice. And he has that ability -- we've seen it with our own eyes. The development of our younger players in years 2/3/4 has been really confusing the past few seasons. Probably what's holding us back even more than the recruiting losses to be honest.
Will we see JBA, Howard Washington or Edwards?
No. Washington was a longshot for legit playing time -- despite some talent and a very admirable story of perseverance -- before his mom decided twitter was an awesome place to air personal grievances. (Thanks for being such an adult mom!!!) That's not going to help. JBA and Edwards? I could be wrong but unless Sidibe really can't make it through the season (and I hate even typing that) I just think the odds are against these two -- who are good prospects -- getting any legit time, IMO. JB goes with guys he trusts and loves his bigs to defend. not sure he's going to trust either of those guys and I'd guess at least edwards needs time on the defensive side.
So what's the prediction on wins?
I don't know. I think it will be entertaining and there is some potential for solid success, but I have a tough time seeing us getting to 20 wins with neither rebounding or defense as a strength and with questions at PG. Feels more like 18-19 wins and NIT to me. But a few good bounces or positive surprises and who knows? Wait and see I guess.
Can the whole be greater than the sum of its parts?
To me, this is probably the one question that sums up what our potential is. The bad news going into the season is there are a ton of question marks -- which we'll get to later -- but the only route I see to this team exceeding expectation and getting into maybe the low 20s for wins (let's say 22-24) is if it takes a page out of the 09-10 playbook. Essentially it may lack that dominant one-on-one guy but the ball movement and contributions of the group as a whole makes them better than the individual players themselves. If you remember, that 09-10 team only had Wes Johnson that ended up even sticking around the league for a while and as great as Wes was and respectable as his nba career has been, he's never averaged double-figures at the next level. Yet, that team was a bona fide title contender.
When I look at this team, it's hard to see that sort of ceiling but the best version of this group is a bunch of guys who can score (Hughes, Buddy, Guerrier, Girard) all sharing the ball and moving well without the ball while a bunch of grinders and hustlers do the dirty work and add some buckets here and there as well (Carey, Goodine, Marek, Sidibe).
Not sure that's enough to get us beyond maybe 11 conference wins but if Sidibe can stay more or less healthy and the frosh improve over the course of the year, who knows, maybe we're around for the second weekend again.
Will our offense be more effective than it has been the past two seasons?
Defense is going to be a bit of a question mark for this group but for the first time in a while we can put a lineup (or multiple lineups) with five good offensively players on the floor. Hughes, Buddy, Marek, Goodine, Girard, Guerrier, Braswell ... they can all bring something to the table offensively. Carey and Sidibe may not be great but they can play a bit on that end too.
So yes, the offense will be better. But how much better? Can Carey push the tempo and allow us to do more on slow break/secondary break opportunities? Can we get more ball movement and off-the-ball movement? Can we do something other than the high ball screen on the offensive end? This is probably the second most interesting question because theoretically the answer is yes, but I think are all probably in the same boat of needing to see it before we can believe it.
Can we rebound enough?
I feel like this might as well be 'can sidibe stay healthy most of the year'? Obviously rebounding will be a question most of the year as it is most seasons, but I'd feel a lot better if we could theoretically put a lineup of Guerrier/Marek/Sidibe on the floor together at times.
Can we defend enough?
We should have lineups that are good defensively but I'm not sure how much those lineups get on the floor together. Like Carey/Goodine/Sidibe/Marek/Gerrier possibly? Or that lineup with Goodine at the 1 and then Hughes inserted at the 2? I don't know that we'll ever see the latter lineup and I'd guess we won't see much of the former. So the question is can guys like Buddy (improved defensively last year but the last we saw him he was getting absolutely abused against baylor), Hughes (some nice defensive plays but inconsistent effort, or at least results on the defensive end last season), Marek if he has to play the 5, Guerrier as a frosh, Girard if he's getting minutes -- can those guys defend well enough that an improved offense could lead to more wins? Jury's out.
What will the rotation be?
The million dollar question every year usually comes down to somewhere between 6.5 and 7.5. I think we see a legit 8 this year and maybe 8.5. There will be games where guys like Girard or jalen play a bunch of minutes and maybe some games where they see a lot of time on the pine. There might be games where Sidibe is unavailable or not moving well enough to play extended minutes. Guerrier may look like a world beater at times but may take some lumps and maybe even a guy like Braswell gets involved.
But to me a lot of it comes down to the guys we know will play big minutes consistently (Buddy, Hughes, Marek, Sidibe if healthy) and the frosh who were recruited to come in and help from day one (Guerrier, Goodine, Girard, who was recruited heavily despite having four guards in the fold and not being an ideal fit for the zone). Add in Carey who will get every opportunity to prove he can handle the point and Braswell, who plays well when he gets minutes and may be needed if Guerrier has some bumps along the way. That's 9 and I figure we see eight of them at least at various points throughout the year -- just maybe not the same 8 each game.
Taking a stab at minutes distribution against legit opponents:
Hughes -- 35-37 mpg (could be closer to 40)
Buddy -- 28-30 mpg (some might think this is low but I think both frosh guards will play)
Marek -- 27 mpg
Sidibe -- 22 mpg (think injuries and/or ineffectiveness due to 'soreness' will limit his minutes this year, sadly)
Carey -- 23-226 mpg (his ability to blow by someone is enough to keep us trying to make him a PG but he's interesting b/c there is the chance it doesn't work and we don't see him on the floor much. so he's the wild card here.)
Girard -- 15 mpg
Goodine -- 22 mpg
Guerrier -- 28-30 mpg (haven't seen the scrimmages but getting more of a 'growing pains' vibe than a '1-and-done' vibe)
Will Jalen Carey be the point guard?
We don't really know this answer. But what we do know is that Carey's speed/quickness is something no one else on the roster has. If you consider that we'll be surrounding him with shooters -- that means we have to give him every opportunity in that role. Don't really know how this will play out because we have options, but his development into a legit rotation piece is a big part of the equation for us ... obviously.
Will Guerrier effectively replace or be an upgrade over Brissett?
I'd say this is the one question where I'm most at odds with the rest of this board. Brissett was frustrating and Guerrier looks like a more polished offensive player. Those both tend to make people feel good. But Brissett worked his a$$ off on the boards and played hard on defense as really our lone physical presence in most games.
If Guerrier is truly an offensive force who plays as big as his measurements, we're going to feel really good. We haven't seen that yet. I think he's going to be a nice player. Loved his high school film. But I'm not sure people understand just how impressive Oshae's freshman year was -- even with the atrocious efficiency. Expecting a frosh to come in and put up 15 and 8 (more or less what brissett did) is a really high bar.
At the end of the day I don't know what to expect here but I think those counting Braswell out entirely in terms of being a rotation piece may be a bit overconfident on what we have here. Then again, I could be wrong.
Can Marek put the ball in the basket?
One of these questions not talked about a lot but what happened to the marek that was scoring the ball well the last seven or so games of his freshman year? Love his passing but some scoring from him would be nice. And he has that ability -- we've seen it with our own eyes. The development of our younger players in years 2/3/4 has been really confusing the past few seasons. Probably what's holding us back even more than the recruiting losses to be honest.
Will we see JBA, Howard Washington or Edwards?
No. Washington was a longshot for legit playing time -- despite some talent and a very admirable story of perseverance -- before his mom decided twitter was an awesome place to air personal grievances. (Thanks for being such an adult mom!!!) That's not going to help. JBA and Edwards? I could be wrong but unless Sidibe really can't make it through the season (and I hate even typing that) I just think the odds are against these two -- who are good prospects -- getting any legit time, IMO. JB goes with guys he trusts and loves his bigs to defend. not sure he's going to trust either of those guys and I'd guess at least edwards needs time on the defensive side.
So what's the prediction on wins?
I don't know. I think it will be entertaining and there is some potential for solid success, but I have a tough time seeing us getting to 20 wins with neither rebounding or defense as a strength and with questions at PG. Feels more like 18-19 wins and NIT to me. But a few good bounces or positive surprises and who knows? Wait and see I guess.
