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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 3988682, member: 1969"] Based on the Implied Probabilities of Current Money Lines: [B]There is 49.9% chance that only New York and Boston advance after today: [/B] 39.6% of that comes from both New York and Boston winning 10.3% of that comes from both Toronto and Seattle Losing [B]There is a 100% chance that Boston advances beyond today There is a 100% chance that New York advances beyond today There is a 43.5% chance Toronto advances beyond today.[/B] - 5.9% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 4 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots - 3.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots - 21.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for 1 wildcard spot. - 12.6% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 2 way tie for 1 wildcard spot. [B]There is a 38.0% chance Seattle advances beyond today. There is a 30.5% chance that only Boston clinches a wildcard spot today [B]There is a 16.9% chance that only New York clinches a wildcard spot today[/B] Overall there is a 27.5%** chance of all 4 teams advancing after today: There is a 5.9% chance that there is a 4 way tie for the Wildcard. There is a 21.6% chance of a 3 way tie for the last wildcard spot (3 for 1 scenario) [/B] - 5.9% chance of 4 way tie. - 13.9% chance that Boston clinches Wildcard, and New York, Toronto and Seattle are tied. - 7.7% chance that New York clinches Wildcard, and Boston, Toronto and Seattle are tied. [B]** [/B]might be a calc error on the 27.5% above. I added all of the 3 above scenarios which seems logical, but that 27.5% seems high. The 3 individual probabilities above are correct. Not sure if I should add all three. [B]There is a 5.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for 2 Wildcard Spots, which has the fascinating scenario of a "Lose Game 163" and not possibly being eliminated scenario.[/B] - 3.5% chance of a Boston, New York, Toronto tie... whereby Boston and Toronto could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at New York on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard. - 2.3% chance of a Boston, New York, Seattle tie... whereby Boston and New York could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at Seattle on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard. [B]There is a 21% chance that Boston/New York clinch a wildcard spot, and 2 teams tie for the final wildcard spot[/B] - 13.4% chance that Boston is the Clinching Team - 7.5% chance that New York is the Clinching Team - 12.6% chance that Toronto is in this scenario - 8.3% chance that Seattle is in the Scenario [/QUOTE]

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