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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4001825, member: 1969"]
Those scenarios add up to much less than 10% of plate appearances.   So there is a reward to getting to third (with 2 outs) in minimal scenarios.    But to take that risk you have to pretty much know for sure you will be safe.

Dasher does raise a fair point on the hit to left field at Fenway.   That adds a few percentage points as well to the plus side which needs to be considered in the risk / reward analysis.  [B] But that is also largely mitigated by the fact that Vazquez only hits 22% of his flyballs to left field, and 78% to center or right.[/B]

The numbers just don't add up to the risk in my opinion.  And I doubt you will find many coaches agreeing with the tactic (even in Fenway, which is a fair point) -- otherwise you would start getting managers to tell runners to try to steal 3rd with 2 outs which is totally unheard of.  Heck modern day managers don't like risking anything for an extra base like an SB because of analytics.
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