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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4001866, member: 1969"] I'll do the math to support my take. Teams make an error on approximately every 60 batters - 1.7% extra chance of scoring by taking 3rd with 2 out Teams average less than one pass ball or wild pitch per game (given that there are 40 batters on an average in a game - 2.5% chance of scoring by taking that extra base (if now lower) [B]Fenway Left Field Factor (which I agree is unique) - 22% of his hits were to left field. He had 88 singles, so let's say 20 of his singles were to left over 458 at bats. So that is 5.0% of his at bats are singles to left field. [/B]But certainly not all singles to left will result in him not scoring. But for the purpose of this calculation let's assume 80% of the time the player is held at third in Fenway. So taking that extra base results in 4.0% of his at bats resulting in the runner scoring from 3rd but not 2nd. (5.0% * 80%). Those add up to 8.2% of at bats including hits to left field. Now let's look at situations where a hit would score him from second: In 458 at bats, Vazques had 30 extra base hits, and 68 singles to Center or Right. 98/458 = 21.4%. But you must also consider the following: a) Vazquez also has a 7% Walk Rate -- assume that batter behind him has a similar 21% rate, so we need to add a few extra % to the probabilities. So let's make it 1.5% b) Also if the batter is held at third on a Single to Left (4.0% of the time), he still has a chance to score again via hit, error, wild pitch. So let's add another 1.0% So if that player stays at second he has a 24% chance of scoring in the next at bat via hit. If he goes to third on that play he now has a 32-33% of scoring in the next at bat (via hit or abnormaility) So by running for third on that play you are doing the following: #1) Increasing your run probability by 8% if you are safe (Granted Vazquez pull hits are low, so the rates are lower for him-- a higher pull hitter might be closer to 12-13%) #2) Decreasing your run probability by 24% if you are out. Numbers don't add up to taking any real risk. [/QUOTE]

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