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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4598303, member: 1969"]
I'm not putting too much value into anything.   [B]I assess base on what the committee tends to do and based on trends.   Not what I want the committee to do.
[/B]
You assess on what you want the committee to do.   That is not the way it works.

I believe the lowest NET or RPI to be excluded from the tournament ever is #24.   Florida Atlantic is #15 and #11 respectively.   So they are going to need a lot of bad on their resume, outside fo that for them to be excluded.

I listed a number of things that show the resume is not "bad" outside of the NET
- Strong KP of #28, which the committee can now use to evaluate mid majors against the field
- 5-3 record Q1+Q2... once again 5 wins is not high, but the amount for a mid is good and more important the % is satisfactory.    If you want to consider road games at North Texas and UAB as dog**** that is fine, but that is not how the system works.
- Under this system the loss at Ole Miss is not a bad loss.   Just because you consider it a bad loss it isn't.  
[B]- They have no bad losses.  (that is not easy for a bubble level team to accomplish) [/B]- most have at least 2.   Here are the bad loss results for the last 6 teams in the tourney per the current matrix.   Rutgers has 4 bad losses.   Pitt has 2 (including a Q4).   Utah St has 2 Q4 losses.   Nevada has 2 losses.    Miss St and Penn St have 1. 
- Expecting them to go 20-0 in Conference USA is absurd, when that slate has 2 Q1 games and 3 Q2 games.   Going 18-2 in Conference USA is fine.    We are not comparing Florida Atlantic to top 4 seeds, we are comparing them to bubble teams.   They had 5 Q1+Q2 games in conference  and 8 Q3 games.    Its not a tough schedule, but at the same time it would be very tough for a bubble team to go 18-2 in that schedule.    A bubble team tends to go about .500 in Q1+Q2 games - so there is 2 losses expected right there. maybe 3 if they are unlucky.   But they would also tend to lose at least 1 Q3 game as well or Q4 game as well.

- They do have one negative - the OOC SOS was not good.   But that is not enough to kill them in my view.   Not enough other bad for that factor to kill them.
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