3 down, 3 left

[obliterata]

Three undefeated teams lost today: Nova, TCU, and Colorado State. That means there are only three undefeated teams left: Duke, Virginia, and Kentucky.

I think Duke will be the next to fall, they have some tough games coming up: at Louisville, at St John's, at Notre Dame, and at Virginia. I think UVA will be undefeated when they play Duke on the 31st of this month.

 

[longtimefan]

Three undefeated teams lost today: Nova, TCU, and Colorado State. That means there are only three undefeated teams left: Duke, Virginia, and Kentucky.

I think Duke will be the next to fall, they have some tough games coming up: at Louisville, at St John's, at Notre Dame, and at Virginia. I think UVA will be undefeated when they play Duke on the 31st of this month.

Funny how that works--every year, league competition begins, and the number of undefeateds is quickly reduced.

Familiarity breeds contempt (for the higher rated team).

 

[EastCoast2]

Who else thinks UK runs the table into March?

 

[obliterata]

Funny how that works--every year, league competition begins, and the number of undefeateds is quickly reduced.

Familiarity breeds contempt (for the higher rated team).

I didn't give that any thought but you're right, all conference games. And yes, it isn't a coincidence.

 

[obliterata]

Who else thinks UK runs the table into March?

I think there's a good chance of that happening but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost an "at" game.

 

[jncuse]

By the current numbers Kentucky's toughest game will be at South Carolina. By measuring systems they have about an 80-85% probability of winning that game.

But even if they have a 90%+ chance of winning each individual game, all it takes is to slip once in 18. If you add up the odds they are predicted at 17-1.

 

[jncuse]

TCU was not that good. They had a decent top 100 road win at Ole Miss, but everything else on the schedule was awful.

They may not get more then 6 or 7 wins in the deep Big 12. The Big 12 depth is pretty amazing, even with no great teams at the top.

 

[obliterata]

The Big 12 has been an underrated conference for quite a few years. If you look at recent NCAA tournament results they've been a solid second-best conference behind the Big East with the other 4 power conferences way behind.

 

[WaHoos4Me]

I think, and excuse my probable biased view here, Duke will fall next... UK has a good chance of running the table, but as was noted earlier, it is conference time and teams do play a little more intensely... UVa won't run the table, but I do think they have an excellent chance to finish the season with just 2 losses or less... and if everyone stays and they avoid serious injuries, next year UVa will definitely be one of the projected finalists... We don't lose starters and have only 1 senior on the squad...

 

[Cowtown]

Who else thinks UK runs the table into March?

I just ran through the SEC, and I don't see anyone I'd peg as the stopper. Kentucky may drop a game somewhere, however unexpectedly, but in all certainty it'll happen because they've beaten themselves.

edit: And both Arizona and Gonzaga (ea @ one loss) are one hell of a lot tougher than either TCU or Colorado St.

 

[EastCoast2]

I just ran through the SEC, and I don't see anyone I'd peg as the stopper. Kentucky may drop a game somewhere, however unexpectedly, but in all certainty it'll happen because they've beaten themselves.

edit: And both Arizona and Gonzaga (ea @ one loss) are one hell of a lot tougher than either TCU or Colorado St.

Agree. The odds aren't in their favor. He's some basic math scenarios.

Overly optimistic: UK is a 95% favorite in all 18 SEC games. The chance they win all 18 games is 40%.

Optimistic: UK is a 90% favorite game in all 18 SEC games. The chance they win all 18 games is 15%.

 

[jncuse]

Agree. The odds aren't in their favor. He's some basic math scenarios.

Overly optimistic: UK is a 95% favorite in all 18 SEC games. The chance they win all 18 games is 40%.

Optimistic: UK is a 90% favorite game in all 18 SEC games. The chance they win all 18 games is 15%.

And you must add 3 games in the SEC tourney as well, which lower that probability just a bit.

 

[Alsacs]

@South Carolina won't be a gimme for Kentucky. I think UVA and Duke may stay undefeated for a while. I think Duke will win @Louisville for Coach K'a 1000th win.