3 Stars, 2 Stars and No Stars in the Super Bowl

[RoysRunts]

Under the radar to Super Bowl star: 28 Chiefs, 49ers were unranked prospects coming out of high school

MaxPreps News - Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle all were 3-star recruits or lower coming out of high school.

www.maxpreps.com

 

[All4SU]

That’s a very encouraging article to those of us who believe that stars coming out of HS are only part of the story. Lots of under-recruited guys on those rosters.

 

[CU44SE]

how many teams with under-recruited guys on their rosters have won a college football national championship? Not trying to be a smart ass, but the NFL is made up of the best guys that develop over the long haul. Not every 5 star college player has the drive to be a stud in the NFL when everyone is as talented as they are. The same can't be said for college. College has roughly 12,650 football players in D1, NFL has roughly 1700 players. Lot of those 5 star players just don't make it, but they deffinetly make a difference in college.

 

[Sudano]

Under the radar to Super Bowl star: 28 Chiefs, 49ers were unranked prospects coming out of high school

MaxPreps News - Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle all were 3-star recruits or lower coming out of high school.

www.maxpreps.com

247 Sports has 31 5 star players for this year and only 34 for 2019.
With so few 5 star players and thousands of 3 star players, of course you're going to have more lower star players. In fact its statistically stunning to have 9x5-star players preparing for Sunday's Super Bowl. There also are 21 4-star players and 37 3-stars. They are trying to imply something that isn't true. No 3x star players are not more likely to appear in the Super Bowl over 4 and 5 stars. There are tens of thousands more 3x star players compared to the hundreds of 4-5 star players. You're pulling form different sized sample groups.
Believe it or not 4-5 star players are still and always are statistically better than lowered star players. Wow who would have thought that?

 

[All4SU]

247 Sports has 31 5 star players for this year and only 34 for 2019.
With so few 5 star players and thousands of 3 star players, of course you're going to have more lower star players. In fact its statistically stunning to have 9x5-star players preparing for Sunday's Super Bowl. There also are 21 4-star players and 37 3-stars. They are trying to imply something that isn't true. No 3x star players are not more likely to appear in the Super Bowl over 4 and 5 stars. There are tens of thousands more 3x star players compared to the hundreds of 4-5 star players. You're pulling form different sized sample groups.
Believe it or not 4-5 star players are still and always are statistically better than lowered star players. Wow who would have thought that?

But also... that lots of 3 star, 2 star and lower rated players have success in college enough to make it to the NFL.

 

[maxxyz]

247 Sports has 31 5 star players for this year and only 34 for 2019.
With so few 5 star players and thousands of 3 star players, of course you're going to have more lower star players. In fact its statistically stunning to have 9x5-star players preparing for Sunday's Super Bowl. There also are 21 4-star players and 37 3-stars. They are trying to imply something that isn't true. No 3x star players are not more likely to appear in the Super Bowl over 4 and 5 stars. There are tens of thousands more 3x star players compared to the hundreds of 4-5 star players. You're pulling form different sized sample groups.
Believe it or not 4-5 star players are still and always are statistically better than lowered star players. Wow who would have thought that?

Much as its fun to think otherwise, you appear to be correct. Using easy numbers (because MATH) 300 five star players drafted over ten years divided by 30 teams (minus early retirement) = 8-12 five star players on each team. Statistically it supports that almost every five star player is an NFL lock. The odds get worse with less stars.

But as our beloved basketball coach says "even a dead man can pick the top 30 players" or something like that.

 

[Sudano]

But also... that lots of 3 star, 2 star and lower rated players have success in college enough to make it to the NFL.

You are correct by number but not by percentage compared to 4-5 stars. It is statistically harder to determine who they will be because of their large sample size. Odds are if you recruit a 4-5 star player they will be better and have a higher rate to play in a super bowl than a 3 star, statistically speaking.

 

[Cuse12]

Let’s not get it twisted.

The higher ranked recruiting classes = more successful college programs

Things kind of level out when players reach full maturity through college and some no names overcome their prematurity and over excel the man-children who were ranked so highly because their natural early maturity. I hope that made sense lol.

Overall, you always want highest ranked players you can get typically and the more higher ranked players you get will equal better outcomes on the field. This is of course makes sense in a vacuum, a lot of outside influences will and can change this for better or worse.

I babbled a lot - makes sense to me lol

 

[billsin01]

how many teams with under-recruited guys on their rosters have won a college football national championship? Not trying to be a smart ass, but the NFL is made up of the best guys that develop over the long haul. Not every 5 star college player has the drive to be a stud in the NFL when everyone is as talented as they are. The same can't be said for college. College has roughly 12,650 football players in D1, NFL has roughly 1700 players. Lot of those 5 star players just don't make it, but they deffinetly make a difference in college.

Agree with this. If somehow we start landing a ton of 5- and 4-star kids I think we'll all be thrilled. The point that I'm always trying to make is that there is very little to suggest these sites do a great job deciphering the difference between three stars or two stars, etc. That is where we have always lived as a program and where we are likely to continue to live for the most part (though a few more 4 star recruits would be great). Bottom line: We need to find the Garrapolos and Kittles to be successful. That's something the recruiting services won't let us know about until we've strung together a few really successful seasons (think three or four 8+ win seasons in a row).

 

[baggerbob]

We won't ever be top 15 yearly. But if we can get between 20-35 yearly we can compete with the right offense and defense