4th Down and going for it

[NKR1978]

http://deadspin.com/5859389/why-nfl...on-fourth-down-and-why-they-hate-eric-mangini

Nate Jackson is a really talented writer and offers some interesting insight into life in the NFL.

 

[dollarbill44]

Given our punting situation, we should be going for it more often on 4th down.

 

[690West]

Yeah. I took this other tidbit from a different deadspin article that proves that it was the CORRECT decision to go for it on 4th for the Falcons.

Hindsight is wonderful, and I'm sure every gambler would love to have that arrow of time-violating advantage. But by any conceivable measure, it was the right call. A fourth-and-a-yard succeeds 74 percent of the time, and Michael Turner was not a yard away. The distance was an entire order of magnitude less. If you can't move the ball a few inches when you have to, you're not winning many football games. Which doesn't mean you don't have to try.

Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats has picked the perfect day to unveil the Fourthdownulator, a handy little application that allows you to plug in the situation and decide whether going for it makes statistical sense. Before running the fourth-down play, the Falcons' win probability stood at 47 percent (it would've risen to 57 percent if they had picked up the first down). Had they chosen to punt, that figure would've dropped to 42 percent. The difference is slight but undeniable, and becomes starker when you take into account both the Falcons' success at running the ball all day and the threat presented by the Saints' offense with decent field position.

(An aside spurred by a discussion in the comments at Advanced NFL Stats. In six overtime games this year, the team winning the coin flip is 1-5 and consistently gets worse starting field position after a kickoff than the opponents who get to receive a punt. The Falcons had to take touchbacks twice, while the Saints started on their own 27. Burke thinks that the new kickoff rules are an effective OT equalizer, even more so than the new playoff overtime rules that we have yet to see put into practice.)

If there was a failing on Mike Smith's part yesterday, it was calling a play where the handoff is made five yards behind the line of scrimmage, facing 11 men in the box. We talked re: Tebow about NFL defenses being able to stop what they know is coming, and there wasn't even a token attempt to send a receiver wide to spread out the defense. And of course, it's the safety Malcolm Jenkins who's able to cheat up and make the first hit on Turner. Maybe this is why coaches are so hesitant to go for it on fourth down: not because they might be unsuccessful, but because everyone's going to break down why.

The whole "job security" question is a traditional reason coaches won't go for it on fourth; the other is the mythical notion that to do so is to send a message to your defense that you don't trust them to make a stop, which always seemed like the worst sort of armchair psychology. In fact, that's exactly what Daryl Johnston cited on the Fox broadcast yesterday: that by not punting, Mike Smith was demoralizing his defense. So, Nate, fighter of safeties: Is the division in the locker room that great that you really have to worry about hurting a unit's feelings with the playcalling on the other side?

 

[kingottoiii]

No way they should have gone for it. Risk/Reward. The reward was having the ball and needing to go 40 yards to get a FG. The risk was that you lose. The risk of punting was never getting the ball back. But if you can't stop them from going 40 yards you deserve to lose. Let the players decide who wins. Easy decision.

 

[Millhouse]

No way they should have gone for it. Risk/Reward. The reward was having the ball and needing to go 40 yards to get a FG. The risk was that you lose. The risk of punting was never getting the ball back. But if you can't stop them from going 40 yards you deserve to lose. Let the players decide who wins. Easy decision.

drop the "deserve to lose" from your thinking

you could just as easily say, if you can't pick up a yard, you deserve to lose.

 

[Scooch]

The 4th down debates are pretty cut-and-dried statistically. Coaches should absolutely, positively be going for it much more often, from all points on the field.

But most coaches (and many fans) continue to believe the objective of football is to prolong determining the outcome as long as possible, as opposed to trying to win when you have your best odds.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

If you go for it on 4th and 1 from your own 29 ... worst case scenario is the other team gets the ball in FG range.

Punting from your own 29 ... worst case scenario is the other team gets the ball 45 yards away from FG range (unless you punt to Devin Hester).

What's wrong with choosing the "best" worst case scenario?

 

[690West]

The 4th down debates are pretty cut-and-dried statistically. Coaches should absolutely, positively be going for it much more often, from all points on the field.

But most coaches (and many fans) continue to believe the objective of football is to prolong determining the outcome as long as possible, as opposed to trying to win when you have your best odds.

This post is a lingual work of art. A picasso

 

[kingottoiii]

The 4th down debates are pretty cut-and-dried statistically. Coaches should absolutely, positively be going for it much more often, from all points on the field.

But most coaches (and many fans) continue to believe the objective of football is to prolong determining the outcome as long as possible, as opposed to trying to win when you have your best odds.

But in this case it was: miss it you lose. Game over. The stakes were a lot higher than a normal 4th down.

 

[Millhouse]

But in this case it was: miss it you lose. Game over. The stakes were a lot higher than a normal 4th down.

meatheads assume kickers are perfect

when you're talking about comparing the products of a bunch of probabilities, you need to avoid rounding up. that's probably what the difference is

 

[690West]

But in this case it was: miss it you lose. Game over. The stakes were a lot higher than a normal 4th down.

Punt it and you lose also. That's the whole point of this thread.

 

[kingottoiii]

Punt it and you lose also. That's the whole point of this thread.

NO still had to go 30 yards to get into FG range with a punt. They didn't have to do a thing after 4th down. If ATL was at there own 10 yard line then you have a point.

 

[Scooch]

This post is a lingual work of art. A picasso

Are you saying I'm a cunning linguist? Why, thank you.