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[QUOTE="Millhouse, post: 1246802, member: 78"]
new england is not inherently better at getting a yard than anyone else.  they are much better at having an awesome QB throw long TDs to an awesome TE

obviously football is not a game of cards.  there are people involved.  some of them might drop the ball, crap their pants, or both.

the teams that are proportionally better at converting don't go for it proportionally more or else you would see the right decisions being made on average.

it's pretty easy to back into the break even probabilities and then use your own subjective wisdom to decide whether your odds are better than that

some of marrone's decision are outrageous even for the worst teams in the league, especially when you're already losing.   even if you think you suck, in the 4th quarter, if you want to have any chance of winning, you have to pretend that you don't suck for a minute.  otherwise you're just conceding.  if the standings were based on point differential, punting could make more sense sometimes.  losing by less doesn't help anyone

my blackjack point is that you can have a simple card telling you what to do.  if you want to assume that you suck, ok, shift the card a little towards kicking

there is no reason why marrone should be 20x likelier to punt than other coaches on 4th and 1 down in the 4th with fred jackson
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