538.com's Sweet Sixteen predictions/projections | Syracusefan.com

538.com's Sweet Sixteen predictions/projections

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Alsacs

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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/

According to the 538 Syracuse is a 53% favorite to beat Gonzaga.
Virginia is a 65% favorite to beat Iowa State

North Carolina is a 73% favorite to beat Indiana
Notre Dame and Wisconsin is a pure 50%-50% game

Villanova is a 67% favorite to beat Miami
Kansas is a 73% favorite to beat Maryland

Oregon is a 57% favorite to beat Duke
Oklahoma is a 61% favorite to beat Texas A&M.
 
Alsacs said:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/

According to the 538 Syracuse is a 53% favorite to beat Gonzaga.
Virginia is a 65% favorite to beat Iowa State

North Carolina is a 73% favorite to beat Indiana
Notre Dame and Wisconsin is a pure 50%-50% game

Villanova is a 67% favorite to beat Miami
Kansas is a 73% favorite to beat Maryland

Oregon is a 57% favorite to beat Duke
Oklahoma is a 61% favorite to beat Texas A&M.
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Has anyone ever tracked 538 predictions? Like if you took all the times they said someone had a 53% chance of winning, would that come to about 53%?
 
The ACC is a favorite in three of the six games, but I think each game is actually a very realistic win.
 
RandygoCuse said:
Has anyone ever tracked 538 predictions? Like if you took all the times they said someone had a 53% chance of winning, would that come to about 53%?
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They just started like ~4years ago. Way too small of a sample.
 
RandygoCuse said:
Has anyone ever tracked 538 predictions? Like if you took all the times they said someone had a 53% chance of winning, would that come to about 53%?
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i don't think you can track the percentages of each game/outcome, since 538 usually only predicts tournaments where people play one time, but in my opinion, 538 is notoriously not good at making sports projections. i read an outlet that always cites 538's projections for the nfl playoffs, mlb playoffs, world cup, ncaa tournament, etc., and they are not very accurate. in fact, i remember their world cup predictions were terrible.

sport is very difficult to predict.
 
Vegas strongly disagrees with 538, as we're 4.5 pt dawgs.

Gonzaga's season-long metrics don't take injuries into account, which obviously plays a role here (although you could say the same for us and JB's suspension).
 
skurey said:
538 had Brazil like 80% to win the World Cup
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The 2014 World Cup was in Brazil where Brazil hadn't lost a competitive match since 1972 before Germany absolutely embarrassed them and their entire country in that Semi-Final.

No European Team had ever won a WC in North or South America before 2014.

Brazil was a heavy favorite going into that tournament and Germany beat both Brazil and Argentina to win the title.
 
Both of these teams are hot right now, so I think we have both been skewing to the high end or even beyond the high end of our efficiency metrics. The question is whether it is just a phase or a trend to being better. We have seen Syracuse go up and down this year so I see our good performance as part of a cycle that could end any time, whereas Gonzaga fans think they are trending better as their backcourt has dramatically improved. How right are they? I don't know. Reading their board, they are in full kool-aid mode about their team which is fine and possibly totally warranted. It will likely come down to which team is able to execute a little better than the other.
 
Alsacs said:
The 2014 World Cup was in Brazil where Brazil hadn't lost a competitive match since 1972 before Germany absolutely embarrassed them and their entire country in that Semi-Final.

No European Team had ever won a WC in North or South America before 2014.

Brazil was a heavy favorite going into that tournament and Germany beat both Brazil and Argentina to win the title.
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So you're saying they were Michigan State. lol
 
BuffOrange said:
They just started like ~4years ago. Way too small of a sample.
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statistics.jpg
 
mscanlo said:
i don't think you can track the percentages of each game/outcome, since 538 usually only predicts tournaments where people play one time, but in my opinion, 538 is notoriously not good at making sports projections. i read an outlet that always cites 538's projections for the nfl playoffs, mlb playoffs, world cup, ncaa tournament, etc., and they are not very accurate. in fact, i remember their world cup predictions were terrible.

sport is very difficult to predict.
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You realize analytics don't decide games they are just a tool. I trust 538 to give an idea of the teams numbers. Upsets always happen.

Sports are decided on the field even if the numbers say differently. Nobody would have predicted Middle Tennessee beating Michigan State. All computers had Michigan State a 96% favorite but MTSU won that day.

Silver does a good job giving info. Nothing more just info.
 
skurey said:
Yeah and making a team 80% to win an entire tournament like that is stupid.
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I don't know if you follow soccer or not. However, homefield advantage matters more in soccer than sport I have ever followed.

The home team in soccer has a huge advantage. Brazil is the most successful soccer nation of alltime and they were hosting the World Cup. Ask any of our soccer people Forza Azzurri IthacaMatt before the 2014 World Cup the heavy heavy favorite was Brazil.

Argentina, Spain, Germany were the other top teams but everyone thought Brazil would win at home. Once the first games were played though it was obvious Brazil was too depend on Neymar and he got hurt in QFs. Going into the Semis I doubt Brazil was an 80% favorite.
 
Alsacs said:
I don't know if you follow soccer or not. However, homefield advantage matters more in soccer than sport I have ever followed.

The home team in soccer has a huge advantage. Brazil is the most successful soccer nation of alltime and they were hosting the World Cup. Ask any of our soccer people Forza Azzurri IthacaMatt before the 2014 World Cup the heavy heavy favorite was Brazil.

Argentina, Spain, Germany were the other top teams but everyone thought Brazil would win at home. Once the first games were played though it was obvious Brazil was too depend on Neymar and he got hurt in QFs. Going into the Semis I doubt Brazil was an 80% favorite.
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Yes they were. They kept raising the percentage after every match even when it was clear this wasn't a Brazil team of the past.

Also having a team that high is stupid in a single elimination tournament structure, homefield or not.
 
Newhouser said:
How have their percentages played out for the tourney thus far?
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I just downloaded all of their data and did the math. In the round of 64, they got 75% of the games right. And they got 75% again in the round of 32.

For games that they give a team 50-60% likelihood of winning, those teams have won 50% of the time (3 out of 6)
 
Alsacs said:
I don't know if you follow soccer or not. However, homefield advantage matters more in soccer than sport I have ever followed.

The home team in soccer has a huge advantage. Brazil is the most successful soccer nation of alltime and they were hosting the World Cup. Ask any of our soccer people Forza Azzurri IthacaMatt before the 2014 World Cup the heavy heavy favorite was Brazil.

Argentina, Spain, Germany were the other top teams but everyone thought Brazil would win at home. Once the first games were played though it was obvious Brazil was too depend on Neymar and he got hurt in QFs. Going into the Semis I doubt Brazil was an 80% favorite.
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All of that is fine, but do you really think any model should make a team 80% to win a tournament? That doesn't even pass the smell test to me.
 
Knicks411 said:
All of that is fine, but do you really think any model should make a team 80% to win a tournament? That doesn't even pass the smell test to me.
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When you factor in Brazil hadn't lost a competitive match in Brazil since 1972 before the 2014 World Cup yes I could understand that.
The betting lines had Brazil as a heavy overprotect before that tournament.

These are the same odds the USA basketball had at the 2012 Olympics. They were an 85% favorite to win Gold.

Brazil soccer was a heavy favorite at home in 2014 when no European team previously had won in the North/South America.
 
Alsacs said:
When you factor in Brazil hadn't lost a competitive match in Brazil since 1972 before the 2014 World Cup yes I could understand that.
The betting lines had Brazil as a heavy overprotect before that tournament.

These are the same odds the USA basketball had at the 2012 Olympics. They were an 85% favorite to win Gold.

Brazil soccer was a heavy favorite at home in 2014 when no European team previously had won in the North/South America.
Expand...

And you really believe USA basketball and Brazil soccer are on the same level compared to the competition????
 
skurey said:
Also having a team that high is stupid in a single elimination tournament structure, homefield or not.
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except that's not what the WC is
 
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