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Message: [QUOTE="mscanlo, post: 1704159, member: 830"] thus my last sentence, "sport is very difficult to predict" i imagine nate silver has cool and interesting models, i'm just saying, when he and his team apply it to sports, it's not very great. then again, probably not too many models are because it is sports and anything can happen. what i mean to say, his models essentially just pick the favorite to win. it's not that challenging/interesting if you think about it. the likelihood of winning is the interesting stat, but there is nothing to compare if it is correct. they only play the game once, not one-million times like 538 probably models out (i.e. mich st was 96% favorite, maybe they were really only 80% favorite in actuality, or 99% favorite, nonetheless, the amount they weren't favored ended up being correct. [URL]http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/[/URL] [/QUOTE]