6-12 in games decided by 5 points or less since the start of last season | Syracusefan.com

6-12 in games decided by 5 points or less since the start of last season

This team clearly doesn't understand how to manage late game situations. It's been demonstrated often with our inability to properly burn extra fouls in end of half/game situations.
Last night we demonstrated again we don't understand last shot situations. Judah goes too early at the half giving Carolina a possession and shot. Last shot was way too early especially when everyone in the building knew it was going to be a bull rush to the hoop by Judah. Even if he scores Carolina has 9 seconds to get a look.
Please don't respond with need time for rebound of miss. A,) we don't do that and B) you don't need ten seconds
 
Late game situations. Usually where coaching is most important to draw or set something up. Pretty telling stat regarding the coach. The players have changed between the two years but the coaching has not. It is what it is at this point.
 
CU44SE said:
Late game situations. Usually where coaching is most important to draw or set something up. Pretty telling stat regarding the coach. The players have changed between the two years but the coaching has not. It is what it is at this point.
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Last year's team couldn't stop anyone.

This year's team is different, hopefully enough of them stick together.

But yeah it has to eat JB's rear, two years in a row with UNC and Joe involved with a goofy play 94 feet from his basket (never mind the other stuff).
 
I watch a fair amount of other basketball teams, but not every one of course. On that basis, my observations don't mean much, but I don't know if I've ever seen a team lose more games on last minute of play offensive charges* than Syracuse. It's 100% on the head coach.

*questionable or not, putting the onus on the ref to make the right call is a terrible idea.
 
I thought we'd get blown out. JB kind of got everything else right and that was a tough call if we settled for a jumper people flip out that Mintz doesn't take it to the hole and draw contact down 1.

Brutal way to lose though and if we had won which we should have the season all of a sudden takes on new life.
 
FRANKIEFAN said:
I thought we'd get blown out. JB kind of got everything else right and that was a tough call if we settled for a jumper people flip out that Mintz doesn't take it to the hole and draw contact down 1.

Brutal way to lose though and if we had won which we should have the season all of a sudden takes on new life.
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This is such bad faith bs. Most people have been very clear ahead of time that they don't like his crazy hero ball. Wouldn't surprise me if you argued with everyone about it a week ahead of yesterday
 
CU44SE said:
Late game situations. Usually where coaching is most important to draw or set something up. Pretty telling stat regarding the coach. The players have changed between the two years but the coaching has not. It is what it is at this point.
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I wonder if you are new at this, but I defy you to find a coach that has outperformed JAB in end of game situations. He may be the best in the history of the game and if not, at worst, he's top 5. Have the last two years gone to form? No, they have not. But you're way off base with your "telling stat regarding the coach."

For everyone frustrated with the losses to Pitt, Miami and UNC ... I get it. Me too. But Judah is our best option. He was last week. He was last night. And he will be next time.

But what he has to remember is, yes, he is our best option, but that does not mean he has to score.
 
SU94 said:
I wonder if you are new at this, but I defy you to find a coach that has outperformed JAB in end of game situations. He may be the best in the history of the game and if not, at worst, he's top 5. Have the last two years gone to form? No, they have not. But you're way off base with your "telling stat regarding the coach."

For everyone frustrated with the losses to Pitt, Miami and UNC ... I get it. Me too. But Judah is our best option. He was last week. He was last night. And he will be next time.

But what he has to remember is, yes, he is our best option, but that does not mean he has to score.
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Judah head down with 15s left with 4 spectators is not the best Judah option.
 
SU94 said:
I wonder if you are new at this, but I defy you to find a coach that has outperformed JAB in end of game situations. He may be the best in the history of the game and if not, at worst, he's top 5. .
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Do you have any data to back that up?
 
"6-12 in games decided by 5 points or less since the start of last season"

And I would bet beer money that of those 6 wins, Syracuse started with an 8-10 point lead at 5 minutes left. Maybe in the offseason, I could try to track down the stats and put them on a three-season rolling average, but ultimately, I really don't care that much anymore. It's pointless to think anything different is going to happen until there is a new HC.

Marcus Adams could come here next season, but when I watch him get called for a charge on a game ending play, it's the same ol same ol.
 
KenPom has a stat called "LUCK".

Basically it takes a look at your scoring margin and what your record should be... typically it would indicate teams that do well in close games and do bad in close games. Which is often bad "LUCK", but arguably in my view just as often it is the inability to play well in close games for other reasons

Anyway, our "LUCK" during 2023 indicates that we should have 0.5 more wins... in 2022 it indicated that we should have 2.2 more wins. So this team has not played well in close situations as indicated my cusefan's stat above.

In 2023, we are 237rd out of 363 in "LUCK"
In 2022, we were 317th our of 358.
 
SU94 said:
I wonder if you are new at this, but I defy you to find a coach that has outperformed JAB in end of game situations. He may be the best in the history of the game and if not, at worst, he's top 5. Have the last two years gone to form? No, they have not. But you're way off base with your "telling stat regarding the coach."

For everyone frustrated with the losses to Pitt, Miami and UNC ... I get it. Me too. But Judah is our best option. He was last week. He was last night. And he will be next time.

But what he has to remember is, yes, he is our best option, but that does not mean he has to score.
Expand...

This isn’t about his career. It is about the last several years. Just more examples of what has become evidently clear.
 
PoppyHart said:
Isn't/wasn't there some chart that plots the records of all D-1 coaches in recent memory based on there W/L % in "close games"?
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Did a search and came up with this -- would appear to be between 2003-2018. Obviously coaches with good teams will tend to be higher than average as well... simply because you are typically leading by 5, than behind by 5. And Syracuse had a very good overall win% in that era -- that being said Boeheim only appears to be behind Bill Self in coaches with 75 such games which obviously is very strong.

That being said if the graph is extended out to 2023, he would still be well above average but I think there would be a few more coaches that would have passed him,.

 
djcon57 said:
Do you have any data to back that up?
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I don't have every other coach, but here are JAB's numbers entering this season.
  • 1 point games: 35-21 (.625)
  • 3 points or less: 140-76 (.648)
  • 5 points or less: 225-139 (.618)
I hope that you "get" how astounding those numbers are.
Think about it logically.
The majority of the time, those close games come against teams with similar talent. Or at least proximate talent.

And JAB is winning somewhere between 62% and 65% of those games.

I am a baseball person, so I will use that sport to make an analogy: With that winning percentage, JAB is the manager of a team that would win 100+ games a season, when playing opponents of (most often) nearly equal talent.

OT games are another indicator. JAB is elite in OT (he's undefeated in 6 OTs!).

Further, JAB's overall winning percentage is currently .719.

He's less than 10% off that number, which includes the hundreds of blowouts over the Cornells, SUNY Binghamtons and Boston Colleges of the world (sorry BC!).

Dude is an absolute game strategy/in-game coaching legend. Best ever in a tight contest, last 3-4 minutes of a game. That has not changed.
 
SU94 said:
I don't have every other coach, but here are JAB's numbers entering this season.
  • 1 point games: 35-21 (.625)
  • 3 points or less: 140-76 (.648)
  • 5 points or less: 225-139 (.618)
I hope that you "get" how astounding those numbers are.
Think about it logically.
The majority of the time, those close games come against teams with similar talent. Or at least proximate talent.

And JAB is winning somewhere between 62% and 65% of those games.

I am a baseball person, so I will use that sport to make an analogy: With that winning percentage, JAB is the manager of a team that would win 100+ games a season, when playing opponents of (most often) nearly equal talent.

OT games are another indicator. JAB is elite in OT (he's undefeated in 6 OTs!).

Further, JAB's overall winning percentage is currently .719.

He's less than 10% off that number, which includes the hundreds of blowouts over the Cornells, SUNY Binghamtons and Boston Colleges of the world (sorry BC!).

Dude is an absolute game strategy/in-game coaching legend. Best ever in a tight contest, last 3-4 minutes of a game. That has not changed.
Expand...
I’m not going to argue how JB stacks up all time because he’s one of the best. It has changed though. It’s not the level of success it historically has been. It has thus, changed.
 
NineOneSeven said:
I’m not going to argue how JB stacks up all time because he’s one of the best. It has changed though. It’s not the level of success it historically has been. It has thus, changed.
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The talent has changed. And the flows of talent around him. Noticed lately that the talent has migrated to the Midwest and South the last 4-5 years.

Judah is a terrific kid, great\great talent. He is not junior year Sherm or sophomore Johnny Flynn. But he is still the best option at end of games. Everyone is focused on the charge/flagrant one. And the Miami game. What about the possession prior last night? Sweet move, he just had a 12-14 footer rattle out to clinch the game. What about the win at Notre Dame? Judah.

JAB is pushing the right buttons to maximize our chances of winning.
 
SU94 said:
I don't have every other coach, but here are JAB's numbers entering this season.
  • 1 point games: 35-21 (.625)
  • 3 points or less: 140-76 (.648)
  • 5 points or less: 225-139 (.618)
I hope that you "get" how astounding those numbers are.
Think about it logically.
The majority of the time, those close games come against teams with similar talent. Or at least proximate talent.

And JAB is winning somewhere between 62% and 65% of those games.

I am a baseball person, so I will use that sport to make an analogy: With that winning percentage, JAB is the manager of a team that would win 100+ games a season, when playing opponents of (most often) nearly equal talent.

OT games are another indicator. JAB is elite in OT (he's undefeated in 6 OTs!).

Further, JAB's overall winning percentage is currently .719.

He's less than 10% off that number, which includes the hundreds of blowouts over the Cornells, SUNY Binghamtons and Boston Colleges of the world (sorry BC!).

Dude is an absolute game strategy/in-game coaching legend. Best ever in a tight contest, last 3-4 minutes of a game. That has not changed.
Expand...
The slide rule turns some very likely ten point wins into certain five point wins. I agree with you. We know he's brilliant. But there are always wrinkles.
 
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