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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2032731, member: 1969"] We don't need to get to 13-5 in the ACC to get in the tourney. There are tools out there to help you track things. Yes our bad losses will be bad. But once we have 11 wins our RPI will be reasonable for the committee to consider some good - and by virtue of getting 11 wins in the ACC by default you will have to have close to 5 top 50 wins. (better than most teams on the bubble) We also heard from the committee this week that they are looking at other analytics. Those other analytics actually like us quite a bit. Despite our struggles KenPom currently has us at #50. If we go 8-5 in the ACC the rest of the way that number would have to be close to 40 if not better. Now the tool I help to make projection. [URL='http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html']RPI Forecast[/URL] [ATTACH=full]87087[/ATTACH] A 20-11 (12-6) team would be projected to have an RPI of #50, getting 12 ACC wins would mean we have at least a handful of top 50 wins. We would easily get into the tournament. 11-7 is the good bubble resume (projected RPI low to mid 60's), with potentially handful of top 50 wins. Good bubble doesn't mean lock, it just means that there are decent chances it would be enough. The mix of those 11 victories of course could move probabilities in both directions (# of elite, # of road)... although with 11 wins we would have a decent mix either way. The easiest way to view where the bubble is tracking is knowing that you can't make a field of 68 without picking some P5+1 teams with RPI's over 50. Look at the forecasted resumes of P5+1 teams with RPI's over 50 on RPI Forecast. Nothing overly impressive. So to address the question in the opening post, in my opinion. 12-6 for sure gets us in. 11-7 is not a clear in, but it gives us between a fairly good to very good chance (that range sways up or down a bit on the mix of road and top 25 wins) NOTE - I still don't think this team has a great shot to get to 11-7 or 12-6. BC is just not enough to sway me. [/QUOTE]

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