A closer look at two very good teams

[Henny & Coke]

A closer look at two teams: Syracuse (22-6) and St. Louis (22-5)

St Louis lineup: Player (Year) Position - MPG - PPG

Mike McCall Jr (JR) G – 30.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg
Kwamain Mitchell (SR) G – 29.0 mpg, 8.8 ppg
Dwayne Evans (JR) F – 28.7 mpg, 12.3 ppg
Jordair Jett (JR) G – 27.0 mpg, 9.8 ppg
Cody Ellis (SR) F – 26.0 mpg, 10.7 ppg
Rob Loe (JR) F – 22.6 mpg, 7.3 ppg
Cory Remekun (SR) F – 19.5 mpg, 5.1 ppg
Jake Barnett (JR) F – 16.1 mpg, 4.2 ppg
Grady Glaze (SO) F – 13.2 mpg, 3.7 ppg

Syracuse lineup: Player (Year) Position - MPG - PPG

Michael Carter-Williams (SO) G – 34.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg
CJ Fair (JR) F – 34.0 mpg, 14.4 ppg
Brandon Triche (SR) G – 33.2 mpg, 14.5 ppg
James Southerland (SR) F – 27.1 mpg, 13.8 ppg
Rakeem Christmas (SO) F – 22.2 mpg, 5.7 ppg
Jerami Grant (FR) F – 16.4 mpg, 4.9 ppg
Baye Keita (JR) F/C – 15.2 mpg, 3.3 ppg
DaJuan Coleman (FR) F/C – 14.0 mpg, 5.0 ppg
Trevor Cooney (RS FR) G – 12.5 mpg, 4.0 ppg

Some items of interest (to me, anyway):

Years in college (player): SR - JR - SO - FR

St. Louis: 3 SR - 5 JR - 1 SO - 0 FR
Syracuse: 2 SR - 2 JR - 2 SO - 3 FR

St Louis has 8 players in their regular lineup that are seniors or juniors in college, while Syracuse has 4 seniors & juniors earning legit minutes.


Players averaging 18 minutes/game or more:

St. Louis: 8 players (average 18 mpg or more)
Syracuse: 5 players (average 18 mpg or more)

St. Louis has 8 players in their regular lineup that average 18 minutes per game or more, while Syracuse has 5 such players. If we make the threshold 20 minutes per game, St. Louis has 6 players (although Remekun averages 19.5 mpg, so he just misses), and Syracuse has 5.


Experience coming into this year:

St. Louis – Players with prior year college experience: 14 seasons of over 500 mins played, 11 seasons of over 700 mins played
Syracuse – Players with prior year college experience: 7 seasons of over 500 mins played, 4 seasons of over 700 mins played

St. Louis’ players have a combined 14 seasons of prior college experience in which they played over 500 mins of basketball coming into this year. They have 11 seasons of over 700 mins played.
Syracuse’s players have a combined 7 seasons of prior college experience in which they played over 500 mins of basketball coming into this year. They have 4 seasons of over 700 mins played. (Triche has 3, Fair has 1)


These numbers are both shocking (to see listed like this, IMO) but also not, if you consider that Syracuse lost 4 players from last year’s team that were experienced, integral parts for many years. And, although in today’s college basketball world teams lose multiple players to graduation and the NBA draft each year, many of these teams do suffer some “down seasons” because of it. (UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Ohio State, etc have all, in recent years, have some poorer seasons, at least by their standards.)

So how can we do a better job of ensuring that we don’t enter a season with so many young, inexperienced players (given such key roles) again?

There are some ways to do this via recruiting: Next year we have a large class coming in, which is great and will help to “restock” our team. It also appears that a few of these recruits are the type that may stick around for a few years, hopefully even until they are juniors and seniors. In this regard, trying to find more “unheralded”, “late bloomer” type of players should payoff in the sense that Syracuse will hopefully benefit from having them play into their junior/senior years. Also, redshirting some of these recruits is a fantastic option (if the player is open to it) & way to allow the player to gain some important experience practicing with the team for a year before their “eligibility clock” starts.

But, sometimes it’s tough to recruit for the future when you currently have multiple good players (with some eligibility) already on the squad. Case in point: We currently have only 3 legitimate guard options on the team, with only 1 being an upperclassman. Now, you could criticize JB & staff for allow this to occur & not properly anticipating such a scenario occurring, but, what guard recruit would have committed to SU last year, considering the anticipated guards in front of them would be Brandon Triche (SR), Dion Waiters (JR), Michael Carter-Williams (SO) and Trevor Cooney (RS FR)? In a culture where young players want to play as soon as possible, that looks like certain bench time for awhile. So, what else could have been done?

Well, how about more focus on adding more transfers – either from another D1 school (although player would have to sit out a year first) or a JUCO? Yes, I realize that JB has a proclivity to not utilizing such avenues (especially since if a player is looking to transfer out of another D1 school, it may indicate the player has a “bad attitude” or is a “me-first” type of person), but he seems to be at least a bit more open to it recently, with the success of Wes Johnson, and now Mike G.

But, how about a JUCO guy? Such a player could be “plugged-in” right away, not having to sit a year first like a D1 transfer. I really think this option is one that may not be evaluated enough…and maybe it could help us in a year like this one…where we lack upperclassmen that many times are integral to providing leadership & support to the younger guys on the team.

Thoughts?

 

[thebigeast44]

My first thought is why compare SU with St . Louis? They are not on our level. I'd say this year we have a nice mix of upper and lower classmen. Most top teams are not going to have a bunch of juniors and seniors these days. Kentucky next year with their ridiculous recruiting class is likely to be preseason #1. And regarding consistency, JB has made Syracuse a remarkably consistent program.

 

[Henny & Coke]

My first thought is why compare SU with St . Louis? They are not on our level. I'd say this year we have a nice mix of upper and lower classmen. Most top teams are not going to have a bunch of juniors and seniors these days. Kentucky next year with their ridiculous recruiting class is likely to be preseason #1. And regarding consistency, JB has made Syracuse a remarkably consistent program.

I had been reading a recap of a St Louis game where it was mentioned how many players they have play big minutes for them each game, which made me curious, so that is why I picked them. But I hear what you are saying.

Here is Kansas, Duke & Florida:

Kansas lineup: Player (Year) Position - MPG - PPG

Travis Releford (SR) G - 33.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg
Ben McLemore (FR) G - 32.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg
Elijah Johnson (SR) G - 31.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg
Jeff Withey (SR) C - 30.7 mpg, 13.5 ppg
Kevin Young (SR) F - 22.5 mpg, 7.8 ppg
Naadir Tharpe (SO) G - 19.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg
Perry Ellis (FR) F - 13.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg
Jamari Traylor (FR) F - 10.6 mpg, 2.0 ppg

Years in college (player): SR - JR - SO - FR

Kansas: 4 SR - 0 JR - 1 SO - 2 FR

Kansas has 4 players in their regular lineup that are seniors or juniors in college (all are seniors).

Players averaging 18 minutes/game or more:

Kansas: 6 players

Experience coming into this year:

Kansas' players have a combined 5 seasons (with 1 season of 494 mins just missing) of prior college experience in which they played over 500 mins of basketball coming into this year. They have 5 seasons of over 700 mins played.


Duke lineup: Player (Year) Position - MPG - PPG

Mason Plumlee (SR) F - 34.4 mpg, 17.5 ppg
Quinn Cook (SO) G - 33.4 mpg, 12.1 ppg
Seth Curry (SR) G - 30.8 mmp, 16.8 ppg
Rasheed Sulaimon (FR) G - 29.9 mpg, 12.4 ppg
Ryan Kelly (SR) F - 28.3 mpg, 13.4 ppg
Tyler Thornton (JR) G - 21.8 mpg, 3.4 ppg
Amile Jefferson (FR) F - 14.0 mpg, 4.7 ppg
Josh Hairston (JR) F - 13.4 mpg, 2.9 ppg

Years in college (player): SR - JR - SO - FR

Duke: 3 SR - 2 JR - 1 SO - 2 FR

Duke has 5 players in their regular lineup that are seniors or juniors in college.

Players averaging 18 minutes/game or more:

Duke: 6 players

Experience coming into this year:

Duke's players have a combined 8 seasons of prior college experience in which they played over 500 mins of basketball coming into this year. They have 8 seasons of over 700 mins played.


Florida lineup:Player (Year) Position - MPG - PPG

Kenny Boyton (SR) G - 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg
Scottie Wilbekin (JR) G - 32.1 mpg, 9.0 ppg
Mike Rosario (SR) G - 29.8 mpg, 13.1 ppg
Patric Young (JR) F - 26.5 mpg, 10.4 ppg
Eric Murphy (SR) F/C - 26.4 mpg, 12.3 ppg
Will Yeguete (JR) F - 21.9 mpg, 6.0 ppg
Michael Frazier (FR) G - 18.7 mpg, 6.4 ppg
Casey Prather (JR) G/F - 16.1 mpg, 6.6 ppg

Years in college (player): SR - JR - SO - FR

Florida: 3 SR - 4 JR - 0 SO - 1 FR

Florida has 8 players in their regular lineup that are seniors or juniors in college!

Players averaging 18 minutes/game or more:
Florida: 7 players

Experience coming into this year:

Florida's players have a combined 11 seasons of prior college experience in which they played over 500 mins of basketball coming into this year. They have 7 seasons of over 700 mins played.

 

[thebigeast44]

Nice research Henny! I've thought ever since one and done became a regular thing in college basketball, that it would be interesting to see if a team of highly regarded freshman would beat those teams filled with juniors and seniors who were good players coming out of high school but not top 10's etc. The jury is still out on that one. Kentucky last year certainly showed the one and done approach can work and may show it again next year. Seemingly the best of both worlds might be if you had talented upperclassmen who are borderline NBA players combined with lottery pick freshman. Of course, the real best of both worlds would be if great players stayed 3 or 4 years like back in the 80's - sadly those days are long behind us.

Simply put, I don't think there is a reliable way to determine the best approach at this juncture and there may never be. The 3 teams you listed above would not beat last years Kentucky team. And I'd say most coaches would like to go to bat with the lineup Kentucky will put on the court next year. Of course, this years Kentucky team is not as good as last years but if Noel had not been hurt and if they had a better point guard, that is a team many would fear come tournament time.

We're never going to be Kentucky. But in 2014-2015, we'll see if having one stud recruit is enough to get the job done with a bunch of other good to very good players surrounding him. JB has shown he is capable of going to the FF4 with such a team with Melo in '03 and Jdub in '96. Let's hope he can do it again, Let's Go Orange!

 

[SWC75]

I remember when we beat UNC in 2009, their fans were complaining that our roster was too old and that JB must be bending the rules to get old players.

 

[DNABB5]

Mike Rosario (SR) G - 29.8 mpg, 13.1 ppg

this is incorrect he should count as a SR twice, at least as two juniors...

plus he not a G he plays TC

thats teacup.

 

[anomander]

I was saying at the end of last year we needed to bring in 1 SR guard who was eligible to transfer and play immediately . I really wanted Mark Lyons. Derrick mays was also on the wish list . I really wish JB would take advantage of this rule in situations like this. There is no excuse for going into a season with 3 available guard options. I still hold my breathe each time mcw and BT go up in the air

 

[bpo57]

My first thought is why compare SU with St . Louis? They are not on our level. I'd say this year we have a nice mix of upper and lower classmen. Most top teams are not going to have a bunch of juniors and seniors these days. Kentucky next year with their ridiculous recruiting class is likely to be preseason #1. And regarding consistency, JB has made Syracuse a remarkably consistent program.

I agree with everything you say except for your first comment. I've got bad news, my friend. St. Louis is on our level. If we lose to Louisville then I'm pretty sure that we will be behind STL in the polls. But forget the polls. You'd be hard pressed to explain why SU's resume is better than STL's at least up until this point in the season. They've won 19 of their last 21.

 

[cuseincincy]

I was saying at the end of last year we needed to bring in 1 SR guard who was eligible to transfer and play immediately . I really wanted Mark Lyons. Derrick mays was also on the wish list . I really wish JB would take advantage of this rule in situations like this. There is no excuse for going into a season with 3 available guard options. I still hold my breathe each time mcw and BT go up in the air

I mentioned this when it was discussed while he was available. Many didn't want him. Who wouldn't want to add the leading scorer off a top 15 team that can play the point, play defense, shoot and is quick as $heet!

 

[anomander]

I mentioned this when it was discussed while he was available. Many didn't want him. Who wouldn't want to add the leading scorer off a top 15 team that can play the point, play defense, shoot and is quick as $heet!

I wonder what they would all say now . I'm actually surprised we didn't add one of these players . I mean we are an injury away from catastrophe

 

[jncuse]

Most comparable model to St. Louis from a power conference level this year is Miami. Those teams don't have one and dones, so every few years they will have very experienced teams, and if they got the right 3* players or a few surprises it will work.

They are going to have moderate years, and then build up to a very good year. St Louis was a bubble team a few years ago (when they were all FR and SO), were a middle seed last year, and now could move up to a pod. Its not unusual progression.

Power conference teams (especially the best ones) are going to have alot of early departures. You can't expect many impact seniors.

 

[jncuse]

Even if we wanted Lyons would we have got him?

Lyons has ties to Xavier via Sean Miller (who recruited him). I think Zona was his clear choice once they were interested.

 

[thebigeast44]

I agree with everything you say except for your first comment. I've got bad news, my friend. St. Louis is on our level. If we lose to Louisville then I'm pretty sure that we will be behind STL in the polls. But forget the polls. You'd be hard pressed to explain why SU's resume is better than STL's at least up until this point in the season. They've won 19 of their last 21.

I was talking about the levels of our 2 programs, not the teams on the court this year. And I've got news for you my friend, St.Louis is not on the same level as Syracuse

 

[PoppyHart]

Even if we wanted Lyons would we have got him?

Lyons has ties to Xavier via Sean Miller (who recruited him). I think Zona was his clear choice once they were interested.

He also wanted to play PG, so he good "audition" for the NBA. He was behind Holloway at XU, and would have been behind MCW here. Arizona, however, needed a point.

 

[bpo57]

I was talking about the levels of our 2 programs, not the teams on the court this year. And I've got news for you my friend, St.Louis is not on the same level as Syracuse

Still confused as to where you stand. Not on the same level as a program or not on the same level on the court this year?

 

[jncuse]

Still confused as to where you stand. Not on the same level as a program or not on the same level on the court this year?

I am as confused as you.

 

[thebigeast44]

Still confused as to where you stand. Not on the same level as a program or not on the same level on the court this year?

Not sure where the confusion is - I stated that I was not talking about the teams on the court this year - see my quote. Simply put - St.Louis is not on the same level as a PROGRAM as SU. As for this year - IMHO we are a better team than they are - 12 RPI vs 30 RPI.

 

[bpo57]

Not sure where the confusion is - I stated that I was not talking about the teams on the court this year - see my quote. Simply put - St.Louis is not on the same level as a PROGRAM as SU. As for this year - IMHO we are a better team than they are - 12 RPI vs 30 RPI.

I had a feeling you thought SU was better than STL this year. Just wanted to clarify. Obviously they are not in our league as a program. As for this year, if I try to be objective as possible, I can't come to the same conclusion you did. The RPI is goofy and loaded with anomalies. Their resume is just as good as ours and on a neutral court we would at best be a nominal favorite IMO.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Not sure where the confusion is - I stated that I was not talking about the teams on the court this year - see my quote. Simply put - St.Louis is not on the same level as a PROGRAM as SU. As for this year - IMHO we are a better team than they are - 12 RPI vs 30 RPI.

I'm with you bigeast. SU is miles ahead of St Louis as a program. St Louis is having their programs best run in a decade and it is still behind SU this year. Why would we copy their philosophy?

To the OP, I know we have gone through a rough patch and are lowering our expectations to around a 27-8 season. But are you really so devastated that you are suggesting to model our program after St Louis???? Just how good do you think St Louis (and Miami for that matter) do next year? The riding of underclassmen through the ranks is at best a once every four year proposition that is the lotto ticket for mid-majors to try and hit.

Don't you think St Louis would rather adopt SU's philosopy? I think they would in a second, if they could.

 

[thebigeast44]

For those worried about our depth at guard this year, I'd say we have more to worry about next year. Next year we'll have only one true point guard on the team in Ennis. If he gets injured, we'll be in for a very challenging year. This year, while our team would be hurt by the loss of either of our starting guards, both can play point and thus we have a backup at arguably the most important position on the team. If BT got injured this year, we'd still be in a better position with Cooney or even Dirty at the 2 than we would be as a team if Ennis went down next year. Let's hope they all stay healthy! At this point, we're done recruiting for next year and even if we were not, I could not see JB bringing in a 1 year player at point unless that player was OK playing limited minutes behind Ennis.