Czar
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A good article for those that wonder why NBA teams don't value older entrants to the draft much
- Thread starter Czar
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After the top 14 teams aren't drafting superstars.
I don't get why teams have changed that drastically from the way the league drafted in the 1990s and early 2000s.
You aren't going to draft a superstars in the 2nd half of the draft you should be drafting players that can help your rotations and be spot starters.
The NBA draft has turned into an upside draft and that has hurt the draft bigtime. Kids being 19 and 22 shouldn't really matter. Unless your a legit Superstar who cares if your 19 or 22. The team that drafts you is doing the development.
I don't get why teams have changed that drastically from the way the league drafted in the 1990s and early 2000s.
You aren't going to draft a superstars in the 2nd half of the draft you should be drafting players that can help your rotations and be spot starters.
The NBA draft has turned into an upside draft and that has hurt the draft bigtime. Kids being 19 and 22 shouldn't really matter. Unless your a legit Superstar who cares if your 19 or 22. The team that drafts you is doing the development.
MikeSU02
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Did you read the article? After the top 14? You are way off. No one at 11 is expecting to draft a superstar. In fact, most times anyone outside the top 1 or 2 aren't expecting superstars. Sometimes even with the first pick, you aren't expecting a superstar.
orange79
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Someone didn't read the fine print.
The reason I said top 14 and not top 5 was that Kobe went 13th and Paul George fell to 10th,
Most studs are top 5 picks but just a few slip thru the cracks. NBA teams should be drafting players to contribute instead of upside picks.
Most studs are top 5 picks but just a few slip thru the cracks. NBA teams should be drafting players to contribute instead of upside picks.
RF2044
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Fascinating article--although I don't think that the main hypothesis is all that illuminating. Younger talent excels and reaches the T5 / T10 level more often because those early entrants tend to be the top flight players with immense potential. They don't all actualize said potential, but a guy who is universally recognized as a top draft prospect is going to have more talent / potential / skill all things being equal than a 22 year old coming into the draft at the end of their college career. If the latter group had that talent / potential, then they probably wouldn't have stayed in college [or overseas] for that long. And by no means does that not imply that those players can't round into form as NBA contributors, or even starters. But again, the main thesis of the article was in identifying players with star potential.
Alsacs, I don't think anyone will argue that the top teams selecting at the end of the draft are not in a position [except in the case of extreme outliers] to land stars. Therefore, what separates the wheat from the chaff is the ability to identify role players who can make the roster and contribute. The Spurs excel at this. Other top teams take a different approach, and value free agency far more than the draft.
Alsacs, I don't think anyone will argue that the top teams selecting at the end of the draft are not in a position [except in the case of extreme outliers] to land stars. Therefore, what separates the wheat from the chaff is the ability to identify role players who can make the roster and contribute. The Spurs excel at this. Other top teams take a different approach, and value free agency far more than the draft.
You can get a star outside the top 3, but its rare, Kobe really went 13th because everyone knew the Lakers were the only team that he wanted to play for.
sutomcat
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It is a way of measuring player performance. It is similar to SWC's net points except a lot more sophisticated.
What is Box Plus/Minus?
Box Plus/Minus (BPM) is a box score-based metric for evaluating basketball players' quality and contribution to the team. It is the latest version of a stat previously called Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus; it is NOT a version of Adjusted Plus/Minus, which is a play-by-play regression metric.
BPM relies on a player's box score information and the team's overall performance to estimate a player's performance relative to league average. BPM is a per-100-possession stat, the same scale as Adjusted Plus/Minus: 0.0 is league average, +5 means the player is 5 points better than an average player over 100 possessions (which is about All-NBA level), -2 is replacement level, and -5 is really bad.
To get a feel for the scale:
- The greatest seasons of all time by BPM are LeBron James' 2009 and 2010 seasons, and Michael Jordan's 1989 tour-de-force. All of those seasons had BPMs between +12.5 and +13.0.
- Some players who over their career were about average (+0.0) include Stephen Jackson, Kurt Thomas, Leandro Barbosa, James Donaldson, and Channing Frye.
- The best player by BPM in 2013/14 was LeBron James, at +8.9, just above MVP Kevin Durant's +8.8. Kevin Love was close behind at +8.3, and Stephen Curry (+7.4) and Chris Paul (+7.4) round out the top five.
- Some players at or near +0.0 (average) from the 2013-14 NBA season include: Monta Ellis, Martell Webster, Iman Shumpert, Roy Hibbert, Nene Hilario, Ray Allen, Terrence Ross, and J.R. Smith.
- The worst player who played significant minutes in 2013-14 was Dennis Schroder of Atlanta, with a very poor -8.3 rating. Anthony Bennett, the surprise 2013 draft number 1 pick, followed with a -7.3.
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IthacaMatt
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Strictly speaking, that's not true. You can find that star player in the top 5 to 8 picks, and some of the players that made the list went as late as 10th or 11th in their draft class. Overall, he said there is an average of 1 superstar, 2 "second tier" stars, and 4 "regular stars" per draft. So out of the 30 first round picks, you've got 7 guys who are difference makers in the average year.
