SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 33,867
- Like
- 65,309
...over the years is that it's easy for the Kentucky Derby winner to win the Preakness but hard to win the Belmont because there is so much emphasis on winning the Triple Crown, as opposed to winning a Triple Crown race, that owners of Derby contenders who didn't win don't run their horses in the Preakness and instead rest them for the Belmont as they have no shot at the TC anyway. The Derby winner thus wins over a weakened Preakness field and everybody gets excited about whether that horse will be the next TC winner. But he gets beat by the rested horses who are good enough to contend against him what haven't raced since the Derby.
American Pharaoh will be the only horse in the Belmont who has been in all three races. Frosted, (6-1), Materiality (13-2), Mubjaahij (14-1), Keen Ice (25-1) and Framento (40-1) all ran in the Derby, (finishing 4th, 6th, 8th, 7th and 11th, respectively, then skipped the Preakness Tale of Verve (20-1) ran only in the Preakness, where he finished second. Madefromlucky (14-1) ran in ntiher of the previous races. Ifg the theory holds, the five horses who ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness are lying in wait for American Pharaoh.
I decided to check the fields in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont in the 12 years since the last TC in which a horse won the first two and lost the Belmont to see if such a pattern emerged.
In the early going, there was no sign of it:
1979: Spectacular Bid was beaten by Coastal, who wasn't in either the Derby or the Preakness and Golden Act, who was in both.
1981: Pleasant Colony finished behind Summing, who wasn't in the Derby or the Preakness and Highland Blade who wasn't in the Derby but ran 6th in the Preakness.
1987: Alysheba finished behind Bet Twice who had been 2nd in both the Derby and Preakness, Cryptoclearnace, who had been 4th in the Derby and third in the Preakness, and Gulch who had been 6th and 4th in the Derby and Preakness.
1989 Sunday Silence lost to Easy Goer who had been second in the first two races
1997 Silver Charm lost to Touch God, who hadn't been in either of the earlier races.
1998 Real Quiet lost to Victory Gallop, who had been second in the prior two races.
But then:
1999 Charismatic lost to Lemondrop Kid, who had been 9th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. But Chartsmatic was injured during the race.
2002 War Emblem finished 8th in the Belmont. Of the seven horses ahead of him, one, Essence of Dubai, ran int eh derby but not the Preakness. But he finished 6th and another horse who ahd done the same thing. Perfect Drift, finished 10th. Medaglia D’Orio, who ran in all three races, was 2nd. Savara, who ran only in the Belmont, won it.
2003 Funny Cide finished 3rd to Empire Makers, who had been 2nd in the Derby and skipped the Preakness and Ten Most Wanted, who had been 9th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.
2004 Smarty Jones finished 2nd to Birdstone, who had been 8th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.
This was about the time I started hearing this theory. In 2008 Big Brown won the first two but pulled up in the Belmont for reasons that are still controversial. He had had a split hoof before the race. In 2012 I'll Have Another won the Derby and Preakness but was scratched and then retired before the Belmont. obviously, neither of those two instances prove or disprove any theory.
2014 California Chrome finished tied for 4th with Wicked Strong and behind Medal Count, who fi shed 3rd, both of whom ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. The winner, Tonalist, ran in neither of the prior two races.
Perhaps the important stat is that 9 of the 12 would-be TC winners lost to horses that had not run in the Preakness, 6 of whom hadn't run in the Derby, either. Actually, not that many horses run in all three races, (37 in the 12 years I looked at).
To sumamrize:
The horses that won the Belmont
1979 Coastal skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
1981 Summing skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
1987 Bet Twice was 2nd in the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
1989 Easy Goer was 2nd in the Derby and the Preakness, then won the Belmont
1997 Touch God skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
1998 Victory Gallop was 2nd in the Derby and the Preakness, then won the Belmont
1999 Lemondrop Kid was 9th in the Derby and won the Belmont
2002 Savara skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
2003 Empire Maker was 2nd in the Derby and won the Belmont
2004 Birdstone was 8th in the Derby and won the Belmont
2008 Da’ Tara skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
2014 Tonalist skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
Horses that ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and ran in the Belmont
1981 Tap Shoes was 14th in the Derby, 6th in the Belmont (behind Pleasant Colony, who was 3rd)
1987 Leo Castelli was 7th in the Derby and 9th in the Belmont
1987 Shawlit Won was 11th in the Derby and 5th in the Belmont (both behind Alysheba who was 4th)
1989 Awe Inspiring was 3rd in the Derby and 4th in the Belmont
1989 Triple Buck was 9th in the Derby and the Belmont (both behind Sunday Silence who was 2nd)
1997 Cryptostar was 5th in the Derby and 4th in the Belmont (behind Silver Charm who finished 2nd )
1998 Parade Ground was 6th in the Derby and 4th in the Belmont
1998 Chilito was 11th in the Derby and 6th in the Belmont (behind Real Quiet, who finished 2nd)
1999 Lemondrop Kid was 9th in the Derby and won the Belmont (Charismatic, whow as injured finshed 3rd)
2002 Perfect Drift was 3rd in the Derby and 10th in the Belmont (behind War Emblem, who finished 8th)
2002 Essence of Dubai was 9th in the Derby and 6th in the Belmont (ahead of War Emblem)
2003 Empire Maker was 2nd in the Derby and won the Belmont (Funny Cide was 3rd)
2003 Ten Most Wanted was 9th in the Derby and 2nd in the Belmont (ahead of Funny Cide)
2004 Birdstone was 8th in the Derby and won the Belmont (Smarty Jones finished 2nd )
2008 Dennis of Cork was 3rd at the Derby and 2nd in the Belmont
2008 Tale of Ekati was 4th in the Derby and 6th in the Belmont
2008 Anak Nakal was 7th in the Derby, 3rd in the Belmont (Big Brown finshed 9th and last)
2014 Wicked Strong was 4th in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and was tied for 4th in the Belmont (with California Chrome)
2014 Medal Count was 8th in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and was 3rd in the Belmont, ahead of California Chrome)
2014 Samraat was 5th in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and was 6th in the Belmont (behind California Chrome)
This record doesn’t suggest that skipping the Preakness to rest for the Belmont gives a horse a huge advantage. This accounts of only 3 of the 12 disappointments.
I think the origin of the theory comes from 2003, when Empire Maker was going to skip the Preakness, then the Miami Herald ran the phony story about Jose Santos using a “metal object” to prod Funny Cide in the Derby, then Empire Maker was announced for the Preakness, (because if Funny Cide were DQ’d from the Derby, Empire Maker would now have a chance far the TC) and then withdrawn when the story turned out to be false. The preponderance of Preakness skipper sin recent years even suggest that the theory may be employed as a strategy. But the results suggest isn’t not a very successful one. A better strategy would be to skip both the Derby and Preakness. But then you wouldn’t get to find out if you had a shot at the TC.
Like all theories, people tend to notice when it ‘works’ and ignore when it doesn’t. If it has any validity, I think it’s more in creating false positives by making the Preakness less competitive than it should be and setting up Triple Crown opportunities for horses that aren’t rally triple Crown Horses, as opposed to robbing Triple Crown horses of deserved Belmont wins by skipping the Preakness and resting up for the Belmont.
If they could find a sponsor, maybe they could reinstate the Triple Crown bonus:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_Crown_Productions
which awarded a million dollars to the horse that had the best overall showing in the three races. They could have prizes for second, third and fourth, etc. It might encourage more horses to run in all three races.
American Pharaoh will be the only horse in the Belmont who has been in all three races. Frosted, (6-1), Materiality (13-2), Mubjaahij (14-1), Keen Ice (25-1) and Framento (40-1) all ran in the Derby, (finishing 4th, 6th, 8th, 7th and 11th, respectively, then skipped the Preakness Tale of Verve (20-1) ran only in the Preakness, where he finished second. Madefromlucky (14-1) ran in ntiher of the previous races. Ifg the theory holds, the five horses who ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness are lying in wait for American Pharaoh.
I decided to check the fields in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont in the 12 years since the last TC in which a horse won the first two and lost the Belmont to see if such a pattern emerged.
In the early going, there was no sign of it:
1979: Spectacular Bid was beaten by Coastal, who wasn't in either the Derby or the Preakness and Golden Act, who was in both.
1981: Pleasant Colony finished behind Summing, who wasn't in the Derby or the Preakness and Highland Blade who wasn't in the Derby but ran 6th in the Preakness.
1987: Alysheba finished behind Bet Twice who had been 2nd in both the Derby and Preakness, Cryptoclearnace, who had been 4th in the Derby and third in the Preakness, and Gulch who had been 6th and 4th in the Derby and Preakness.
1989 Sunday Silence lost to Easy Goer who had been second in the first two races
1997 Silver Charm lost to Touch God, who hadn't been in either of the earlier races.
1998 Real Quiet lost to Victory Gallop, who had been second in the prior two races.
But then:
1999 Charismatic lost to Lemondrop Kid, who had been 9th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. But Chartsmatic was injured during the race.
2002 War Emblem finished 8th in the Belmont. Of the seven horses ahead of him, one, Essence of Dubai, ran int eh derby but not the Preakness. But he finished 6th and another horse who ahd done the same thing. Perfect Drift, finished 10th. Medaglia D’Orio, who ran in all three races, was 2nd. Savara, who ran only in the Belmont, won it.
2003 Funny Cide finished 3rd to Empire Makers, who had been 2nd in the Derby and skipped the Preakness and Ten Most Wanted, who had been 9th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.
2004 Smarty Jones finished 2nd to Birdstone, who had been 8th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness.
This was about the time I started hearing this theory. In 2008 Big Brown won the first two but pulled up in the Belmont for reasons that are still controversial. He had had a split hoof before the race. In 2012 I'll Have Another won the Derby and Preakness but was scratched and then retired before the Belmont. obviously, neither of those two instances prove or disprove any theory.
2014 California Chrome finished tied for 4th with Wicked Strong and behind Medal Count, who fi shed 3rd, both of whom ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. The winner, Tonalist, ran in neither of the prior two races.
Perhaps the important stat is that 9 of the 12 would-be TC winners lost to horses that had not run in the Preakness, 6 of whom hadn't run in the Derby, either. Actually, not that many horses run in all three races, (37 in the 12 years I looked at).
To sumamrize:
The horses that won the Belmont
1979 Coastal skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
1981 Summing skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
1987 Bet Twice was 2nd in the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
1989 Easy Goer was 2nd in the Derby and the Preakness, then won the Belmont
1997 Touch God skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
1998 Victory Gallop was 2nd in the Derby and the Preakness, then won the Belmont
1999 Lemondrop Kid was 9th in the Derby and won the Belmont
2002 Savara skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
2003 Empire Maker was 2nd in the Derby and won the Belmont
2004 Birdstone was 8th in the Derby and won the Belmont
2008 Da’ Tara skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
2014 Tonalist skipped the Derby and Preakness, then won the Belmont
Horses that ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and ran in the Belmont
1981 Tap Shoes was 14th in the Derby, 6th in the Belmont (behind Pleasant Colony, who was 3rd)
1987 Leo Castelli was 7th in the Derby and 9th in the Belmont
1987 Shawlit Won was 11th in the Derby and 5th in the Belmont (both behind Alysheba who was 4th)
1989 Awe Inspiring was 3rd in the Derby and 4th in the Belmont
1989 Triple Buck was 9th in the Derby and the Belmont (both behind Sunday Silence who was 2nd)
1997 Cryptostar was 5th in the Derby and 4th in the Belmont (behind Silver Charm who finished 2nd )
1998 Parade Ground was 6th in the Derby and 4th in the Belmont
1998 Chilito was 11th in the Derby and 6th in the Belmont (behind Real Quiet, who finished 2nd)
1999 Lemondrop Kid was 9th in the Derby and won the Belmont (Charismatic, whow as injured finshed 3rd)
2002 Perfect Drift was 3rd in the Derby and 10th in the Belmont (behind War Emblem, who finished 8th)
2002 Essence of Dubai was 9th in the Derby and 6th in the Belmont (ahead of War Emblem)
2003 Empire Maker was 2nd in the Derby and won the Belmont (Funny Cide was 3rd)
2003 Ten Most Wanted was 9th in the Derby and 2nd in the Belmont (ahead of Funny Cide)
2004 Birdstone was 8th in the Derby and won the Belmont (Smarty Jones finished 2nd )
2008 Dennis of Cork was 3rd at the Derby and 2nd in the Belmont
2008 Tale of Ekati was 4th in the Derby and 6th in the Belmont
2008 Anak Nakal was 7th in the Derby, 3rd in the Belmont (Big Brown finshed 9th and last)
2014 Wicked Strong was 4th in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and was tied for 4th in the Belmont (with California Chrome)
2014 Medal Count was 8th in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and was 3rd in the Belmont, ahead of California Chrome)
2014 Samraat was 5th in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and was 6th in the Belmont (behind California Chrome)
This record doesn’t suggest that skipping the Preakness to rest for the Belmont gives a horse a huge advantage. This accounts of only 3 of the 12 disappointments.
I think the origin of the theory comes from 2003, when Empire Maker was going to skip the Preakness, then the Miami Herald ran the phony story about Jose Santos using a “metal object” to prod Funny Cide in the Derby, then Empire Maker was announced for the Preakness, (because if Funny Cide were DQ’d from the Derby, Empire Maker would now have a chance far the TC) and then withdrawn when the story turned out to be false. The preponderance of Preakness skipper sin recent years even suggest that the theory may be employed as a strategy. But the results suggest isn’t not a very successful one. A better strategy would be to skip both the Derby and Preakness. But then you wouldn’t get to find out if you had a shot at the TC.
Like all theories, people tend to notice when it ‘works’ and ignore when it doesn’t. If it has any validity, I think it’s more in creating false positives by making the Preakness less competitive than it should be and setting up Triple Crown opportunities for horses that aren’t rally triple Crown Horses, as opposed to robbing Triple Crown horses of deserved Belmont wins by skipping the Preakness and resting up for the Belmont.
If they could find a sponsor, maybe they could reinstate the Triple Crown bonus:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_Crown_Productions
which awarded a million dollars to the horse that had the best overall showing in the three races. They could have prizes for second, third and fourth, etc. It might encourage more horses to run in all three races.
couchburn:E
