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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 5556827, member: 1969"]
You asked the question in another thread and I never had a chance to answer.   I'm going to use KP instead of NET, because you can sort of "back" into KP movements, and you can do it with NET.   But they are correlate quite well as they are margin based.

[B]The following are end of year impacts,
- If a team ranked #50 plays a team #330, they would be expected to win by 24-25 points.[/B]
- If you win by 40, you did 15 points better than expected.   KP is a per/100 system, and since most games are around 70 possessions, that would mean you did 22/100 better than expected.     Over the course of a season that improves your adjusted margin by about 0.7 (22/31 games). 
- Alternatively if you only won by 10, your adjusted margin goes down by about 0.7

If I look at KP adjusted margins end of last year -- that 0.7 jump moves you up from #50 to #49, and moves you down from 50 to 57 if it's a bad game..   But where KP are this year it moves you up from #50 to #44, and moves you down to 54.

It's never going to be the exact same move up or down, because some time teams from #50-#55 are just really close to each other or a bit more spread out.

[B]But my rough estimate -- winning a game by 40 (when you are supposed to win by 25), will move up a team that is #50 by around 3-4 spots at year end -- and if you win by only 10, you might move down 3-4 spots.  That's not nominal -- the difference between the same level team having a really good night or a really bad night against a bottom feeder, could make the difference between your KP (and NET)  being 46/47 instead of 53/54.[/B]
 
Movements will be more significant up and down early in the year because you are averaging things out over 8-10 games to start the season, while by year its over 31 games.
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