ACC statistical profile

[GoSU96]

For what it’s worth here is a ranking based on the statistical rankings in the ACC

I’m not saying SU is the 2nd best team in the ACC, but that isn’t the profile of a bottom team.

They need to get more production out of the pass game and have to do much better on 3rd down to match the rest of the performance.

 

[Millhouse]

For what it’s worth here is a ranking based on the statistical rankings in the ACC

I’m not saying SU is the 2nd best team in the ACC, but that isn’t the profile of a bottom team.

View attachment 207810

They need to get more production out of the pass game and have to do much better on 3rd down to match the rest of the performance.

There is nothing special about plays where the stick says three. Teams that are bad at offense are bad on third down

 

[Geode]

Optimism, like ambition, knows no bounds.
An SU professor wrote a good book that is applicable here...Mark Monmonier, How to Lie With Maps.

Of course our stats are good.
Ohio - 1-4
Albany - 0-4
Liberty - 4-1
*FSU - 1-4
Opponents Combined Record - 6 - 13 (2-12 if you take Liberty out)

* Statistically last place team in our league...So, statistics. But I like the optimism!

 

[TheCusian]

Optimism, like ambition, knows no bounds.
An SU professor wrote a good book that is applicable here...Mark Monmonier, How to Lie With Maps.

Of course our stats are good.
Ohio - 1-4
Albany - 0-4
Liberty - 4-1
*FSU - 1-4
Opponents Combined Record - 6 - 13 (2-12 if you take Liberty out)

* Statistically last place team in our league...So, statistics. But I like the optimism!

eh, those other ACC teams have played bad teams too. Also, there are other models that incorporate the "who" and they are less bullish on Syracuse, but we've been steadily gaining based on those metrics

 

[javadoc]

Optimism, like ambition, knows no bounds.
An SU professor wrote a good book that is applicable here...Mark Monmonier, How to Lie With Maps.

Of course our stats are good.
Ohio - 1-4
Albany - 0-4
Liberty - 4-1
*FSU - 1-4
Opponents Combined Record - 6 - 13 (2-12 if you take Liberty out)

* Statistically last place team in our league...So, statistics. But I like the optimism!

Coming out with that, while not producing the analogous data for the teams we are comparing to, is the opposite of optimism.

 

[Geode]

Coming out with that, while not producing the analogous data for the teams we are comparing to, is the opposite of optimism.

Not gonna lie. I find it difficult to remain optimistic with the program.
However, this team is much more entertaining than I thought they would be.

 

[GoSU96]

Week Six

I’ve added the win loss record. SU with two losses is the outlyier in the set of teams it’s grouped with.

Six weeks into the season the team is truly playing better overall than it has in all but a few times over the last ten years. Putting aside the penalties and game management, the lack of production in the pass game is holding them back. When they get behind the sticks they can’t generate first downs.

That’s the trade off switching QBs, he’s being asked to do a lot. If the pass game continues to get better this team can have a huge second half. Increase the number of passes called, and have a slight increase in completion percentage. I do recognize that some pass calls end up being QB runs.


They also have to get better at situational football, both execution and play calls.

 

[orangenauburn]

Week Six

I’ve added the win loss record. SU with two losses is the outlyier in the set of teams it’s grouped with.

Six weeks into the season the team is truly playing better overall than it has in all but a few times over the last ten years. Putting aside the penalties and game management, the lack of production in the pass game is holding them back. When they get behind the sticks they can’t generate first downs.

That’s the trade off switching QBs, he’s being asked to do a lot. If the pass game continues to get better this team can have a huge second half. Increase the number of passes called, and have a slight increase in completion percentage. I do recognize that some pass calls end up being QB runs.


They also have to get better at situational football, both execution and play calls.

View attachment 208365

I know it's not the case but if we went off this then we should beat everyone left except NC State and Pitt

 

[GoSU96]

I know it's not the case but if we went off this then we should beat everyone left except NC State and Pitt

it tells me that SU has a realistic chance in every game. They are not an overmatched bottom feeder.

 

[elimunelson]

it tells me that SU has a realistic chance in every game. They are not an overmatched bottom feeder.

It's chicken and egg. Why are they losing every one of these close games though? At some point the differentiator is the coaching. Everyone can see there is talent on the roster. Who is holding it back at this point? My guess is the playcalling. It's dreadfully bad.

 

[upperdeck]

why did the dodgers lose like 15 one run games in a row this year when they probably had the best team all yr.

 

[GoSU96]

Some more SU specific context, at least through six games the team is playing about as well on both sides as any post gerg.

if they continue to play at this level to not win at least three more games would be shocking.

 

[GoSU96]

Some more SU specific context, at least through six games the team is playing about as well on both sides as any post gerg.

if they continue to play at this level to not win at least three more games would be shocking.

View attachment 208430

some follow up. Went back to 2001

If the season ended today this team would have since 2001:

Second highest points per game
5th highest yds per game
Highest yds per play
3rd lowest points allowed per game
2nd lowest yds per game allowed
2nd lowest yds per play allowed

lots of football left to be played, injuries could be huge, but there is still reasonably attainable offensive upside

this team is much closer to corner turned than dumpster fire

 

[Crusty]

"Lies, damn lies and statistics." Samuel Langhorne Clemens (1835-1910)

 

[Geode]

Thanks for taking the time to do this Go! Clearly progress is being made. It'll be argued about if/when is should've been made on a different timeline but there is progress.

Appreciate the work you've done.

 

[GoSU96]

Update through yesterday.

If SU had the same TO margin that Pitt, NCSt, and Wake have it would certainly be a 0 or one loss team. On top of not getting any help from the opponent mistakes, add SU’s redzone TOs with the high number of empty trips and that’s a big reason why they are underperforming the statistical profile. Way too much meat on the bone this year.

That can be overcome by improving the pass production and third down, which is what happened yesterday.

 

[RandomGuy]

Update through yesterday.

View attachment 209424

If SU had the same TO margin that Pitt, NCSt, and Wake have it would certainly be a 0 or one loss team. On top of not getting any help from the opponent mistakes, add SU’s redzone TOs with the high number of empty trips and that’s a big reason why they are underperforming the statistical profile. Way too much meat on the bone this year.

That can be overcome by improving the pass production and third down, which is what happened yesterday.

Improvement in the 10+ yards passing game yesterday. Shrader with 3 "Big Time Throws." 12 drop backs pressured. No sacks. Sure hands from Jackson, Cooper, Alford.

Improvement in these areas = a fully functional offense.

 

[Cusefan69]

Not sure what the data says but it feels like Shrader has had his most success either in either 4/5 wide sets or rolling out of the pocket. In addition Cooper is starting to see more targets which I like because he has some YAC talent that I think can yield nice chunks or to the house kinda scores. If we can keep the safety honest with Cooper and Jackson in the middle that should give Alford more 1 on 1 looks on sideline jets. In addition it will be critical for Servais to get back to Center come BC. Both for the run and passing game.

 

[upperdeck]

not sure Servais can get back to center with the Tackle issues we have now.

 

[CuseCactus]

Optimism, like ambition, knows no bounds.
An SU professor wrote a good book that is applicable here...Mark Monmonier, How to Lie With Maps.

Of course our stats are good.
Ohio - 1-4
Albany - 0-4
Liberty - 4-1
*FSU - 1-4
Opponents Combined Record - 6 - 13 (2-12 if you take Liberty out)

* Statistically last place team in our league...So, statistics. But I like the optimism!

Ok - you just made my day - quoting Mark Monmonier. One of my favorite profs on the Hill. Brilliant guy - wonderful teacher - who’s tenets still resonate with me. Well done!

 

[upperdeck]

can we sign up for the BC that had 250 yds yesterday..

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Special teams play has been a big detriment for this squad

 

[All4SU]

There is nothing special about plays where the stick says three. Teams that are bad at offense are bad on third down

Agreed. But would benefit from another metric, let’s say First Down Gains of 5+ yards.

 

[GoSU96]

Though nine games from everyone. SU has been in the same position all year, more evidence the team should be at least two games better.

 

[All4SU]

That third down conversion rate is pretty significant.