ACC Tournament Odds

[NashvilleOrange]

Odds have been posted for ACC tournament champion:
Duke 3/2
UVA 4/1
Cuse 9/2
UNC 7/1
Pitt 10/1
NC State 40/1
Maryland 40/1
Florida St 40/1
Clemson 40/1
Field 50/1

 

[jncuse]

I really like Virginia at 4/1. They have a deep rotation which should help in a 3 day tournament. They may also want it more than Duke or UNC.

Shows how much something like KP ratings (Vegas uses something similar) influences odds. Pitt is still very high in that rating, and it is reflected in the 10/1 odds they have... do they really have nearly as good a chance as UNC? No way.

I'm hoping Pitt get's canned in their first matchup against Wake/Notre Dame winner.

 

[orangeinohio]

Not that it's going to matter that much but how in the hell is NCST 40-1 and Pitt is 10-1?
I know Pitt has a better RPI but the probability of these teams getting very far in the ACC tournament is basically the same.
And NCST is playing better right now.

 

[jncuse]

Not that it's going to matter that much but how in the hell is NCST 40-1 and Pitt is 10-1?
I know Pitt has a better RPI but the probability of these teams getting very far in the ACC tournament is basically the same.
And NCST is playing better right now.

http://kenpom.com/

Vegas probably uses something similar to this. Basically UNC/Pitt is considered a toss up, as is reflected in the odds (remember that Pitt has to play one extra game).

I don't actually believe it - there is a time to rely on systems, and a time not too.

 

[NashvilleOrange]

I like that we're ahead of UNC. Greensboro is their MSG and they've been one of the hottest teams as of late.

 

[hallcity]

UNC at 7-1 is a very good bet. Probably, they won't win it but their chances are far better than one in seven.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Is it appropriate to read this as "if the tournament were played 9 times, odds are that SU would win twice"?

 

[Knicks411]

Is it appropriate to read this as "if the tournament were played 9 times, odds are that SU would win twice"?

Not quite; to figure it out you take 2 over 11, not 2 over 9. (So 2 over 2+9) So about an 18% chance instead of a 22% chance.

If you take those odds (i'll throw the field out for now; seems like there is no way that is supposed to be 5/1, maybe it's 50/1?), the odds add up to about 109%. So yeah, Vegas is good at this

 

[jncuse]

I am considering taking both Virginia and UNC. I have to assume one of the two will make the final from that side, and I would get good odds in the final with either team.

The reason the odds are lower on that side of bracket is because of Pitt, and I don't believe in them.

If I bet the same on both, I would either get +200 or +350 on my initial bet . Of course if Pitt can run through both of them, there is no more value in that final game, and you take a big loss.

 

[rrlbees]

Who is the field? Everyone but Duke? Everyone but the top 2? 4?

 

[Marsh01]

50/1 field

 

[Knicks411]

Who is the field? Everyone but Duke? Everyone but the top 2? 4?

Field should be everyone not listed there, which is why i think it's a typo and it's 50/1 instead of 5/1.

 

[rrlbees]

Field should be everyone not listed there, which is why i think it's a typo and it's 50/1 instead of 5/1.

Makes more sense.

 

[Dave85]

I like that we're ahead of UNC. Greensboro is their MSG and they've been one of the hottest teams as of late.

Sir, I've been to MSG. Greensboro is no MSG!

 

[phillydad]

UNC at 7-1 is a very good bet. Probably, they won't win it but their chances are far better than one in seven.

Agreed. Good value bet.

 

[Dave85]

Odds have been posted for ACC tournament champion:
Duke 3/2
UVA 4/1
Cuse 9/2
UNC 7/1
Pitt 10/1
NC State 40/1
Maryland 40/1
Florida St 40/1
Clemson 40/1
Field 5/1

My problem with odds is it's bases on years of statistics. Reality doesn't perfectly conform to statistical norms. When I play craps at the casino there are many times when I win more money on a 4/10 bet than a 5/6 bet. I know the odds are better for the 5/6 bet but that's the way the dice roll. Reality has a tendency to not conform to our expectations.

 

[Dave85]

Field should be everyone not listed there, which is why i think it's a typo and it's 50/1 instead of 5/1.

$1000 bet on Georgia Tech!

 

[HoustonCuse]

My problem with odds is it's bases on years of statistics. Reality doesn't perfectly conform to statistical norms. When I play craps at the casino there are many times when I win more money on a 4/10 bet than a 5/6 bet. I know the odds are better for the 5/6 bet but that's the way the dice roll. Reality has a tendency to not conform to our expectations.

Reality conforms exactly to statistical norms, on a long enough timeline. An odds-on event not occurring is not evidence that the odds were wrong. I think what you are saying is that single events have a high degree of volatility even in the face of very favorable odds.

Example of the long enough timeline:

Flip a coin: there is 50% chance of heads.
Flip a coin 10 times: there is a 9.7% of getting heads each time, even though each flip is still 50%.

 

[Dave85]

Reality conforms exactly to statistical norms, on a long enough timeline..

That's what I was saying.

 

[NashvilleOrange]

50/1 field

Sounds right. I got this from the spread article earlier today, since posted they've added odds for the rest of the teams to my site
Miami FL
66/1

Notre Dame
100/1

Georgia Tech
250/1

Boston College
500/1

Virginia Tech
500/1

Wake Forest
500/1

 

[Knicks411]

Sounds right. I got this from the spread article earlier today, since posted they've added odds for the rest of the teams to my site
Miami FL
66/1

Notre Dame
100/1

Georgia Tech
250/1

Boston College
500/1

Virginia Tech
500/1

Wake Forest
500/1

Interesting, those odds add up to about 3.48%. If you take the field at 50/1, the odds are 1.96%. So the field odds should be closer to 25/1, so i guess take the field if you like one of the longshots?

 

[BuffOrange]

I'm a little stunned. Even ignoring UVA's lofty kenpom status, not having to beat both Duke & Cuse has to be worth a lot.

 

[orangeinohio]

I'm a little stunned. Even ignoring UVA's lofty kenpom status, not having to beat both Duke & Cuse has to be worth a lot.

Apparently the oddsmakers don't think highly of Syracuse's chances in the rubber match against Duke.

 

[JOC44]

Reality conforms exactly to statistical norms, on a long enough timeline. An odds-on event not occurring is not evidence that the odds were wrong. I think what you are saying is that single events have a high degree of volatility even in the face of very favorable odds.

Example of the long enough timeline:

Flip a coin: there is 50% chance of heads.
Flip a coin 10 times: there is a 9.7% of getting heads each time, even though each flip is still 50%.

I get a lot less than 9.7%. I get 0.097%.

 

[HoustonCuse]

I get a lot less than 9.7%. I get 0.097%.

Yes you are right. I adiosed two zeroes somwhere.