ACC Tournament Projections 2.0

[Marsh01]

Tournament Seedings as of today:

This is where it gets tricky with Louisville doing a self imposed ban. I am purely going off last years bracket when we didnt play as far as days and times. I have not included Louisville in the tournament but will keep them in the standings for now. The teams "new" standing is in parenthesis next to their name based on Louisville being now out.

Standings:

1. North Carolina 8-1
2. Louisville 7-2 (post season ban)
3. Virginia 7-3 (2)
4. Clemson 7-3 (3)
5. Pittsburgh 6-3 (4)________Buy into the Quarterfinals
6. Miami (FL) 6-3 (5)
7. Notre Dame 6-4 (6)
8. Duke 5-4 (7)
9. Syracuse 6-5 (8)
10. Florida State 5-5 (9)______Buy into the Second Round
11. Virginia Tech 4-6 (10)
12. Georgia Tech 2-7 (11)
13. NC State 2-8 (12)
14. Wake Forest 1-9 (13)
15. Boston College 0-9 (14)



All games are on ESPN, ESPN2 or the ACC Network

First Round Tuesday March 8th

Game 1 - #12 seedNC State vs. #13 seed Wake Forest @ 1:00
Game 2 - #11 seedGeorgia Tech vs. #14 seed Boston College @ 3:30

Second Round Wednesday March 9th

Game 3 - #8 seed Syracuse vs. #9 seed Florida State @ Noon
Game 4 - #5 seed Miami (FL) vs. Game 1 winner @ 2:30
Game 5 - #7 seed Duke vs. #10 seed Virginia Tech @ 7:00
Game 6- #6 seed Notre Dame vs. Game 2 winner @ 9:30

Quarterfinals Thursday March 10th

Game 7 - #1 seed North Carolina vs. Game 3 winner @ Noon
Game 8 - #4 seed Pittsburgh vs. Game 4 winner @ 2:30
Game 9 - #2 seed Virginia vs. Game 5 winner @ 7:00
Game 10 - #3 seed Clemson vs. Game 6 winner @ 9:30

Semifinals Friday March 11th

Game 11 - Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner @ 7:00
Game 12 - Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner @ 9:30

Finals Saturday March 12th

Game 13 - Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner @ 9:00


ACC Games through next Friday

Saturday February 6th

Virginia @ Pittsburgh
Boston College @ Louisville
NC State @ Duke
Clemson @ Virginia Tech
North Carolina @ Notre Dame

Sunday February 7th

Miami (FL) @ Georgia Tech

Monday February 8th

Louisville @ Duke
Notre Dame @ Clemson

Tuesday February 9th

Pittsburgh @ Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
North Carolina @ Boston College

Wednesday February 10th

Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech

Thursday February 11th

Florida State @ Syracuse

No games on Friday February 12th

 

[Alsacs]

If we beat Pitt and Clemson struggles down the stretch we honestly could play ourselves into a double bye.

 

[sabach]

An SU/FSU round two game could be the equivalent of an NCAAT play in game. BTW, thanks for doing these Marsh. I really look forward to this.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Louisville at Duke on Monday should be fun. I assume its the ESPN game. Too bad i'll be at the Springsteen concert.

 

[cuseinseattle]

Thanks Marsh. These are great. If we can beat Pitt at home and hold serve on games we should win we could be in the double bye conversation.

 

[HOFCeluck]

An SU/FSU round two game could be the equivalent of an NCAAT play in game. BTW, thanks for doing these Marsh. I really look forward to this.

I hope not.

 

[RandygoCuse]

Does a bye help or hurt us if we are on the bubble? Playing in the first round gives us an easy opponent to beat.

 

[cuseinseattle]

Does a bye help or hurt us if we are on the bubble? Playing in the first round gives us an easy opponent to beat.

If we have a double bye we won't be on the bubble.

 

[RandygoCuse]

If we have a double bye we won't be on the bubble.

What about a single bye?

 

[sabach]

I hope not.

My thoughts exactly. I hated playing in play in games in the BET. It seemed like we always played Nova in that type of game and we lost. I hope we play our way off the bubble and have no need to worry in DC.

 

[Jasoncuse]

If we beat Pitt and Clemson struggles down the stretch we honestly could play ourselves into a double bye.

Clemson has an easy schedule. Hard to see them not finishing with 11 or 12 wins, at the minimum.

 

[Jasoncuse]

Hoping we can get up to 6 or 7. Not only will we avoid the afternoon games, but we'd avoid UNC if we were to win our 1st game.

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

Hoping we can get up to 6 or 7. Not only will we avoid the afternoon games, but we'd avoid UNC if we were to win our 1st game.

I'd think favorable match ups too. Georgia Tech/BC and then Clemson. Of course so much will change between now and then but I'd love that scenario.

 

[obliterata]

Thanks for putting this together every week, it's appreciated. One addition, Florida State is @ Wake Forest tomorrow. FSU needs every win it can get but I'm picking WF.

 

[jncuse]

Does a bye help or hurt us if we are on the bubble? Playing in the first round gives us an easy opponent to beat.

Bye's shouldn't matter anymore with Louisville out. If we are a bubble team we are destined to have one bye.

If we don't get a bye, that means we actually finished 11th or worse in the ACC. If that is the case we are in bad shape.

If we get a double bye, we are a lock.

But getting back to the point that has been raised many teams -- does beating a sub 100 RPI team in the tourney help your resume. IMO, it's better than a loss, but it's much better avoiding the game all together.

There is no "Magic Win Total". I believe there is a win total that would project to be enough to llikely be in(9 + no bad loss), but here is the difference between the two. If the committee sees us just on the outside (or just in) early in selection week, a win over BC does nothing to sway favour in our direction (not a top 100 win), but a loss eliminates us. It is a no win game if we are right on the bubble line.

 

[Alsacs]

If we had beaten Clemson we would be sitting at a double bye right now.

VPI beat Clemson and UVA beat Pitt.

We could get a double bye if we finish 11-7.

UNC/UVA/Miami are going to get double byes.

Now Clemson, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, and Florida State are competing for the last one.

 

[SUintheVille]

Cuse needs to get up at least to 6th. This would avoid UNC and VA if the current upper seed rankings hold. We'd play Clemson as it stands now.

 

[Flight23]

If we had beaten Clemson we would be sitting at a double bye right now.

UNC/UVA/Miami are going to get double byes.

.

Wouldnt be so sure about this... look at the remaining schedules for UVA, Miami, and UNC.
Miami has games vs UVA, @UNC, @ND, Pitt, and Lou. Even @VT isnt a gimme.
UVA has UNC, Lou, @Mia, @Duke, Clemson
UNC has it slightly easier: Pitt, Miami, @UVA, Duke, @Duke (Duke might be tougher if Jefferson comes back).

ND has @Clem, Lou, Mia
Clemson on the other hand has it easy with only ND and UVA of the top tier teams left. They have 2 games vs BC, 2 vs GT, and 1 vs NCST left. Hard to see them losing more than 2 more.
Pitt has a ton of tough games left and will prob get miss out on the double bye.
Duke has UVA, UNC, @UNC, Lou, lou, Pitt... theyll probably miss out on the double bye.
Syracuse has lou, Pitt, and @UNC.
FSU has Mia, @Duke, ND, Syr, @Syr.

Given that the top 3 have much harder remaining schedules than Clemson, Syracuse, and FSU, there is a good chance 2 of them could get bumped out.
I personally think UVA has a chance to win out, but more realistically they will get 1-2 losses putting them with 4-5 losses.
Miami I think will lose at least 3 (UVA, @UNC, @ND), giving them a minimum of 6 losses and more likely 7.
UNC I think will lose @UVA and @Duke with Jefferson back in the last game of the season, giving them 4 losses.

ND I think will lose 1 game, giving them 5 losses.
Clemson I think will lose 2-3 more, giving them 6-7 losses.
FSU I think at least 7 losses.
Syracuse at least 7 losses.

So with that I think UVA & UNC are probably locks for the double bye, and most likely ND.
Last spot is Clemson or Miami most likely with FSU/Syracuse having an outside shot.


My prediction for final ACC reg season standings:
UVA (3-4 losses)
UNC (3-4 losses)
ND (5 losses)
Clemson (6 losses)
Miami (7 losses)
Duke (7-8 losses)
FSU (7-8 losses)
Syracuse (7-8 losses)
The rest

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Tournament Seedings as of today:

This is where it gets tricky with Louisville doing a self imposed ban. I am purely going off last years bracket when we didnt play as far as days and times. I have not included Louisville in the tournament but will keep them in the standings for now. The teams "new" standing is in parenthesis next to their name based on Louisville being now out.

Standings:

1. North Carolina 8-1
2. Louisville 7-2 (post season ban)
3. Virginia 7-3 (2)
4. Clemson 7-3 (3)
5. Pittsburgh 6-3 (4)________Buy into the Quarterfinals
6. Miami (FL) 6-3 (5)
7. Notre Dame 6-4 (6)
8. Duke 5-4 (7)
9. Syracuse 6-5 (8)
10. Florida State 5-5 (9)______Buy into the Second Round
11. Virginia Tech 4-6 (10)
12. Georgia Tech 2-7 (11)
13. NC State 2-8 (12)
14. Wake Forest 1-9 (13)
15. Boston College 0-9 (14)



All games are on ESPN, ESPN2 or the ACC Network

First Round Tuesday March 8th

Game 1 - #12 seedNC State vs. #13 seed Wake Forest @ 1:00
Game 2 - #11 seedGeorgia Tech vs. #14 seed Boston College @ 3:30

Second Round Wednesday March 9th

Game 3 - #8 seed Syracuse vs. #9 seed Florida State @ Noon
Game 4 - #5 seed Miami (FL) vs. Game 1 winner @ 2:30
Game 5 - #7 seed Duke vs. #10 seed Virginia Tech @ 7:00
Game 6- #6 seed Notre Dame vs. Game 2 winner @ 9:30

Quarterfinals Thursday March 10th

Game 7 - #1 seed North Carolina vs. Game 3 winner @ Noon
Game 8 - #4 seed Pittsburgh vs. Game 4 winner @ 2:30
Game 9 - #2 seed Virginia vs. Game 5 winner @ 7:00
Game 10 - #3 seed Clemson vs. Game 6 winner @ 9:30

Semifinals Friday March 11th

Game 11 - Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner @ 7:00
Game 12 - Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner @ 9:30

Finals Saturday March 12th

Game 13 - Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner @ 9:00


ACC Games through next Friday

Saturday February 6th

Virginia @ Pittsburgh
Boston College @ Louisville
NC State @ Duke
Clemson @ Virginia Tech
North Carolina @ Notre Dame

Sunday February 7th

Miami (FL) @ Georgia Tech

Monday February 8th

Louisville @ Duke
Notre Dame @ Clemson

Tuesday February 9th

Pittsburgh @ Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
North Carolina @ Boston College

Wednesday February 10th

Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech

Thursday February 11th

Florida State @ Syracuse

No games on Friday February 12th

Bye. Just saying!

 

[orange79]

Louisville at Duke on Monday should be fun. I assume its the ESPN game. Too bad i'll be at the Springsteen concert.

Enjoy! Great show in Boston last Thursday. I hope I have one quarter the energy he has when I am his age...

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Enjoy! Great show in Boston last Thursday. I hope I have one quarter the energy he has when I am his age...

Amazing. Just Amazing. And not just Bruce. All the E Streeters have amazing energy.