advanced stat profile updated

[Millhouse]

no idea what most of this means, especially the defensive performance percentile vs Louisville

most interesting thing is how many toss ups there are

Syracuse statistical profile

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Our win probabilities changed vs the preseason.

USF went from 55% to 46%
UConn from 60% to 58%
ND from 26% to 28%
Wake from 54% to 50%
VA Tech from 50% to 46%
BC from 44% to 47%
Clemson from 10% to 11%
NC State from 54% to 51%
FSU from 27% to 20%
Pitt from 32% to 32%

So we went from 4.12 Ws to 3.89 Ws vs this group so things have gotten worse. Although to be really accurate IMO these models need 6+ games of data so those certainly will change as the season goes on. It is interesting that they give us a 33% chance of going 6-6 or better which is a decent shot at a Bowl. Although on the flip side we have about a 40% chance of going worse than 5-7 which would be a huge disappointment.

 

[Millhouse]

Our win probabilities changed vs the preseason.

USF went from 55% to 46%
UConn from 60% to 58%
ND from 26% to 28%
Wake from 54% to 50%
VA Tech from 50% to 46%
BC from 44% to 47%
Clemson from 10% to 11%
NC State from 54% to 51%
FSU from 27% to 20%
Pitt from 32% to 32%

So we went from 4.12 Ws to 3.89 Ws vs this group so things have gotten worse. Although to be really accurate IMO these models need 6+ games of data so those certainly will change as the season goes on. It is interesting that they give us a 33% chance of going 6-6 or better which is a decent shot at a Bowl. Although on the flip side we have about a 40% chance of going worse than 5-7 which would be a huge disappointment.

yeah, it's buyer beware at this point - not much to go on but still somewhat fun to look at

 

[orangehomer]

Our win probabilities changed vs the preseason.

USF went from 55% to 46%
UConn from 60% to 58%
ND from 26% to 28%
Wake from 54% to 50%
VA Tech from 50% to 46%
BC from 44% to 47%
Clemson from 10% to 11%
NC State from 54% to 51%
FSU from 27% to 20%
Pitt from 32% to 32%

So we went from 4.12 Ws to 3.89 Ws vs this group so things have gotten worse. Although to be really accurate IMO these models need 6+ games of data so those certainly will change as the season goes on. It is interesting that they give us a 33% chance of going 6-6 or better which is a decent shot at a Bowl. Although on the flip side we have about a 40% chance of going worse than 5-7 which would be a huge disappointment.

all we've done is sort of roll an fcs team and get rolled by a great team. hard to judge against dissimilar schedules, unless it factors in last year. which actually in our case makes it less predictive.

I don't think we beat USF and it might be ugly, they smoked us last year and I don't see why that would change. but if we get rolled by UConn, i'm at DEFCON 2.