Advanced Stats vs Rutgers: A Mea Culpa

[TheCusian]

Alright, this isn't going to be pretty.

I said on rewatch, after taking in the boards comments before watching the game that maybe everyone was a bit harsh and that if the suspect refs and a few late TO's had gone our way we'd have won and the advanced stats probably would show that. Cut to the chase, largely they didn't.

Both teams were truly awful on offense. The winning team was going to have a negative EPA (expected points added - a per play stat; a way measuring a plays success).

We were better than them for the first 50 plays (1st half + 1st drive of the 2nd) but came away with no points. That's what happens with a negative EPA.

I think it's important to note that if Taj's fumble was properly called down and we go on to score a TD there and make the FG at the end of the half, Rutgers was really, really awful on offense (59 yards) - we might have just taken their hearts and won going away. We let a bad team with good special teams and B10 refs stick around long enough to implode in the 4th Q.

We truly fell off a cliff in the 4th Q. IMPLOSION. A decent football team puts it together there - but DeVito and Dino failed. I think this is the case to ride GS from Liberty on into ACC play.

This kind of tells the whole story:

Team	Total EPA	Offensive EPA	Special Teams EPA	Penalties EPA
	-29.2	-17.18	-9.22	-3.16
	-13.18	-14.32	1.35	-0.21

Had we been even in TO's, penalties, and special teams - we win. They combination of turnovers and penalties killed our drives and gave them more chances. They outplayed us in special teams.

Yuck.

EDIT: Had the penalties EPA switched; obviously we were called for more.

 

[TheCusian]

I meant to include this link, Advanced Stats: Rutgers vs Syracuse

There's a lot more to glean from this site and it's pretty impressive if you're into this sort of things. I just wouldn't stare too much at this game as you'll prob go blind.

 

[upperdeck]

Not only that Fg. But the 2nd one we didnt even get to attempt because of the bogus holding call on Benson. It could easily have been 10-17 to 0 at the half.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Interesting. Although I didn’t need any advance statistic to confirm what I already knew in that first half (not a shot at you for posting just in general). One of the worst games you’ll stumble on, between two bottom of the barrel p5 teams. And it sounds like the fourth was even worse from our end!

 

[PhatOrange]

I don't know how this factors in but I think Taj was short of the first down and I think it would've been 4th down. Babers would've kicked the FG.

 

[upperdeck]

I was wondering if they would kick.. I was thinking he trusted the D and maybe he would want to see if the oline could get push and go for it. Never really saw a spot so not sure how short we were .

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I don't know how this factors in but I think Taj was short of the first down and I think it would've been 4th down. Babers would've kicked the FG.

You mean punt

 

[syrBossHogg]

Penalties have been a huge issue under Dino and I don't understand why they haven't cleaned up that area

 

[qdawgg]

I think in the very least the young WR’s and Shrader need to play most of the Albany game. I get letting the 1’s play the 1st quarter to stay fresh, maybe practice some things with timing etc. But the young WR’s and Shrader need to play 3 Q’s to see what is there, even though it’s just Albany. Especially the WR’s IMO.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Penalties have been a huge issue under Dino and I don't understand why they haven't cleaned up that area

They were bad with Shafer and Marrone as well. I am sure that it is partially a talent issue but at the same time Wake runs as many plays as anyone, lacks talent, and is usually near the top of least penalized teams. I feel like coaches treat penalties like they do STs, as an after thought. You cannot do that at a school like SU.

 

[syrBossHogg]

I think in the very least the young WR’s and Shrader need to play most of the Albany game. I get letting the 1’s play the 1st quarter to stay fresh, maybe practice some things with timing etc. But the young WR’s and Shrader need to play 3 Q’s to see what is there, even though it’s just Albany. Especially the WR’s IMO.

Agreed, they need to get a lot better on offense ASAP. Might as well start with the next game

 

[syrBossHogg]

They were bad with Shafer and Marrone as well. I am sure that it is partially a talent issue but at the same time Wake runs as many plays as anyone, lacks talent, and is usually near the top of least penalized teams. I feel like coaches treat penalties like they do STs, as an after thought. You cannot do that at a school like SU.

Yeah it's understandable if a DB gets called for PI or Holding for trying to cover Tee Higgins or Sammy Watkins. But you're right, it's been a huge issue for long and it's reflective of the coaching here.

 

[qdawgg]

Agreed, they need to get a lot better on offense ASAP. Might as well start with the next game

If for anything, we need to see if there’s any young WR’s that are getting limited/no action should be seeing more playing time. What we have playing regularly now aren’t consistent or overly special - athletically.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Yeah it's understandable if a DB gets called for PI or Holding for trying to cover Tee Higgins or Sammy Watkins. But you're right, it's been a huge issue for long and it's reflective of the coaching here.

Live ball penalties happen and are different than pre-snap infractions. How about illegal formations on punts?

 

[capeorange]

Live ball penalties happen and are different than pre-snap infractions. How about illegal formations on punts?

Good coaches control what they can to put their teams in a position to win. Bad coaches ignore the controlables.
People are defending the coaches and their records saying that if this or that doesn't happen we would have won. Often times "this or that" is a mistake that's repeatedly ignored by Dino and that's on him.

 

[EuclidBred]

Both offenses were awful for most of the game. I mentioned earlier this week that Rutgers OL reminds me of our OL the last two seasons.

However, sorry for being a broken record - but it is just too frustrating, Rutgers is in year two of a rebuild on offense while we are in year 6 with our offensive head coach who is playing a 5th year QB.

The fact that this graph is even close, is telling.

 

[TheCusian]

Both offenses were awful for most of the game. I mentioned earlier this week that Rutgers OL reminds me of our OL the last two seasons.

However, sorry for being a broken record - but it is just too frustrating, Rutgers is in year two of a rebuild on offense while we are in year 6 with our offensive head coach who is playing a 5th year QB.

The fact that this graph is even close, is telling.

If you look back at Schiano’s record, they are perpetually rebuilding their offense. They had a decent run with Ps recruits for a hot minute, but otherwise yuck.

 

[EuclidBred]

If you look back at Schiano’s record, they are perpetually rebuilding their offense. They had a decent run with Ps recruits for a hot minute, but otherwise yuck.

Sweet - what does that have to do with now?

 

[TheCusian]

Sweet - what does that have to do with now?

Sorry, thought it was clear. He has a strong record of not having a good offense. What we saw on Saturday looked just about like his other offenses. He sucks.

We’ve fielded a pretty good offense 3 years ago.

 

[phil77]

I think in the very least the young WR’s and Shrader need to play most of the Albany game. I get letting the 1’s play the 1st quarter to stay fresh, maybe practice some things with timing etc. But the young WR’s and Shrader need to play 3 Q’s to see what is there, even though it’s just Albany. Especially the WR’s IMO.

Against Albany Dino should take the opportunity to get the passing and tempo game rolling. No need to pound the rock until later in the game. We should play fast and passing 90% of the time. We have a clear weakness and need to work on it in-game. Pass pass pass pass some more and push the tempo should be 100000% the focus. I don't care who the QB is I already said my piece on that but all the WRs should play especially if we are passing a ton.

 

[EuclidBred]

Sorry, thought it was clear. He has a strong record of not having a good offense. What we saw on Saturday looked just about like his other offenses. He sucks.

We’ve fielded a pretty good offense 3 years ago.

Bro, stop trying to pick fights with everyone. It's exhausting. Nowhere did I try and say Rutgers or Schiano's offense is better than ours. Now or historically.

My point was that they are in year 2 of a rebuild and sucked.
We are in year 6 with an offensive HC and 5th year qb and still suck.

That's all.

 

[qdawgg]

Bro, stop trying to pick fights with everyone. It's exhausting. Nowhere did I try and say Rutgers or Schiano's offense is better than ours. Now or historically.

My point was that they are in year 2 of a rebuild and sucked.
We are in year 6 with an offensive HC and 5th year qb and still suck.

That's all.

Welcome to the board, it’s what he does and then cries wolf later.

 

[upperdeck]

Rutger is + 5 and +3 in turnovers and 2 blocked punts. Can they sustain that? Of those 8 about 6 of them were just plain dumb luck.. 3 vs us . 1 never happened and the last INT had nothing to do with good D either. We have to generate some with the offense we have now.. We wasted them last yr

 

[TheCusian]

Bro, stop trying to pick fights with everyone. It's exhausting. Nowhere did I try and say Rutgers or Schiano's offense is better than ours. Now or historically.

My point was that they are in year 2 of a rebuild and sucked.
We are in year 6 with an offensive HC and 5th year qb and still suck.

That's all.

My point is they won’t be getting better so it’s a weird comp. Plus, years 1-3 we were on an upward trajectory.

I’m with you on sucking 2019-now and it’s frustrating as hell

 

[TheCusian]

Welcome to the board, it’s what he does and then cries wolf later.

Just looking for a good discussion. There’s a reason you’re on ignore