After Week 4 S&P Probability Chart

[BlueShaq]

 

[SUFan44]

So what this is saying is we have a 97.8% chance of making a bowl game this year.

I like those odds.

 

[upperdeck]

I really have no idea what this thing tries to say? does it mean we have a 7.7 chance of winning next week?

 

[IthacaMatt]

As I'm reading that, if we win the games we are currently favored, and lose the others, I think it says we should win 8 games. That's a tremendous year.

 

[Chip]

I really have no idea what this thing tries to say? does it mean we have a 7.7 chance of winning next week?

7.2%. There's a 0.2% chance that UConn was our final win of the year.

 

[USMCSnyper]

Is there a remedial class for those who don’t understand this?

 

[BlueShaq]

The fourth column going from left to the right tells the game by game win probability according to the S&P rankings. So Syracuse has a 7.2% chance of winning next week according to S&P, and obviously all the games above are just wins. When you look at all the pretty colors in the table, the chart gives the percent probability of how many wins we're going to have on a week to week basis. The bottom row is probably what everyone's here for, and it states we have a 97.8% chance of at least reaching a bowl this year at 6 wins (bottom right hand corner of the percents). It also states our most likely scenario is 8 wins this year at 32.1%, and we have a 0.1% chance of getting to 12-0. Every other team in the Atlantic besides Clemson has a 0.0% chance of getting to 12-0 right now.

What's in parentheses you don't really need to worry about, but it is the change of percentage we had from last week. So for the clemson game, we have a 2.6% better chance than we did according to the rankings last week to beat them.

 

[USMCSnyper]

Thank you!

 

[CanadianSU]

*likes post to prove I am smart and understand this*

 

[BlueShaq]

Thank you!

No problem, it's kind of hard to explain and understand how it works and it took me a little while to understand once I first saw these. If you guys need any more explanations or anything, I'll try to help you guys out.

 

[721Comstock]

Is there a remedial class for those who don’t understand this?

tl/dr = 8 wins is now our most statistically likely outcome, followed by 7 & 9 wins.
There’s a ~79% chance we finish in the 7-9 win range.

 

[Halfmooncuse]

Ok what’s the square root of -1?

 

[orange79]

Ok what’s the square root of -1?

i

 

[Halfmooncuse]

i

Orange79 when were you on Jeopardy?