SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 33,676
- Like
- 64,818
This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK TWO
Michigan beat #8 Villanova 73-46 = +45 points
Furman beat #8 Villanova 76-68 = +26 points
Oregon beat #15 Syracuse 65-80 = +26 points
Indiana beat #24 Marquette 96-73 = +25 points
Iowa beat #13 Oregon 77-69 = +21 points
Connecticut beat #15 Syracuse 83-76 = +18 points
Louisiana lost to #2 Kansas 76-89 = +11 points
Virginia Tech beat #23 Purdue 89-83 = +9 points
Georgia Tech lost to #5 Tennessee 53-66 = +8 points
Vermont lost to #2 Kansas 68-84 = +8 points
Denver lost to #12 Kansas State 56-64 = +6 points
Virginia Military lost to #10 Kentucky 82-92 = +6 points
Purdue lost to #16 Virginia Tech 83-89 = +4 points
Ball State lost to #16 Virginia Tech 64-73 = +1 point
Stanford lost to #7 North Carolina 72-90 = +1 point
Texas A&M lost to #3 Gonzaga 71-94 = 0 points
Pennsylvania lost to #12 Kansas State 48-64 = -2 points
Syracuse lost to #13 Oregon 65-80 = -2 points
Fresno State lost to #21 Texas Christian 69-77 = -3 points
Louisiana Tech lost to #22 Louisiana State 67-74 = -3 points
Memphis lost to #22 Louisiana State 76-85 = -5 points
Louisiana-Monroe lost to #11 Michigan State 59-80 = -6 points
Little Rock lost to #6 Nevada-Reno 59-87 = -8 points
Sam Houston State lost to #19 Clemson 59-74 = -8 points
Southern Illinois lost to #25 Buffalo 53-62 = -8 points
Providence lost to #18 Michigan 47-66 = -11 points
Eastern Kentucky lost to #12 Kansas State 68-95 = -13 points
Eastern Michigan lost to #1 Duke 46-84 = -13 points
George Washington lost to #18 Michigan 61-84 = -15 points
Presbyterian lost to #24 Marquette 55-74 = -17 points
Davidson lost to #23 Purdue 58-79 = -18 points
Northeastern lost to #16 Virginia Tech 60-88 = -18 points
Appalachian State lost to #23 Purdue 70-92 = -19 points
Long Beach State lost to #17 Mississippi State 51-79 = -19 points
Villanova lost to #18 Michigan 46-73 = -19 points
North Dakota lost to #10 Kentucky 58-96 = -22 points
St. Francis (Pa.) lost to #20 UCLA 58-95 = -31 points
Tennessee Tech lost to #7 North Carolina 58-108 = -31 points
Mississippi College Lost to #9 Auburn 52-103 = -34 points
Coppin State lost to #4 Virginia 40-97 = -35 points
Tennessee Tech lost to #11 Michigan State 33-101 = -53 points
Comments: Just as we did with Notre dame in football, we gave Connecticut and Oregon a nice leg up. We probably won’t be able to do that for anybody for a while as we are unlikely to be ranked until we prove ourselves. The same goes for Villanova who obviously has slipped quite a bit.
Tennessee Tech lost to eventual national champion Loyola of Chicago 42-111 in the opening round of the 1963 NCAA tournament. That’s the all-time margin of defeat in the Big Dance (+69 points). So they have been there before.
THE TOP 25
Duke +58 points
Michigan +45 points
Furman +26 points
Oregon +26 points
Indiana +25 points
Auburn +23 points
Iowa +21 points
Kansas +21 points
Michigan State +20 points
Buffalo +18 points
Connecticut +18 points
Louisiana +9 points
Virginia Tech +9 points
Georgia Tech +8 points
Vermont +8 points
Wofford +7 points
Denver +6 points
Virginia Military +6 points
Purdue +4 points
Southern Illinois +4 points
Brigham Young +3 points
Cal State Bakersfield +1 point
Stanford +1 point
Army 0 points
Texas A&M 0 points
Syracuse has -2 points.
The worst total so far is Tennessee Tech with -84 points
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK TWO
Michigan beat #8 Villanova 73-46 = +45 points
Furman beat #8 Villanova 76-68 = +26 points
Oregon beat #15 Syracuse 65-80 = +26 points
Indiana beat #24 Marquette 96-73 = +25 points
Iowa beat #13 Oregon 77-69 = +21 points
Connecticut beat #15 Syracuse 83-76 = +18 points
Louisiana lost to #2 Kansas 76-89 = +11 points
Virginia Tech beat #23 Purdue 89-83 = +9 points
Georgia Tech lost to #5 Tennessee 53-66 = +8 points
Vermont lost to #2 Kansas 68-84 = +8 points
Denver lost to #12 Kansas State 56-64 = +6 points
Virginia Military lost to #10 Kentucky 82-92 = +6 points
Purdue lost to #16 Virginia Tech 83-89 = +4 points
Ball State lost to #16 Virginia Tech 64-73 = +1 point
Stanford lost to #7 North Carolina 72-90 = +1 point
Texas A&M lost to #3 Gonzaga 71-94 = 0 points
Pennsylvania lost to #12 Kansas State 48-64 = -2 points
Syracuse lost to #13 Oregon 65-80 = -2 points
Fresno State lost to #21 Texas Christian 69-77 = -3 points
Louisiana Tech lost to #22 Louisiana State 67-74 = -3 points
Memphis lost to #22 Louisiana State 76-85 = -5 points
Louisiana-Monroe lost to #11 Michigan State 59-80 = -6 points
Little Rock lost to #6 Nevada-Reno 59-87 = -8 points
Sam Houston State lost to #19 Clemson 59-74 = -8 points
Southern Illinois lost to #25 Buffalo 53-62 = -8 points
Providence lost to #18 Michigan 47-66 = -11 points
Eastern Kentucky lost to #12 Kansas State 68-95 = -13 points
Eastern Michigan lost to #1 Duke 46-84 = -13 points
George Washington lost to #18 Michigan 61-84 = -15 points
Presbyterian lost to #24 Marquette 55-74 = -17 points
Davidson lost to #23 Purdue 58-79 = -18 points
Northeastern lost to #16 Virginia Tech 60-88 = -18 points
Appalachian State lost to #23 Purdue 70-92 = -19 points
Long Beach State lost to #17 Mississippi State 51-79 = -19 points
Villanova lost to #18 Michigan 46-73 = -19 points
North Dakota lost to #10 Kentucky 58-96 = -22 points
St. Francis (Pa.) lost to #20 UCLA 58-95 = -31 points
Tennessee Tech lost to #7 North Carolina 58-108 = -31 points
Mississippi College Lost to #9 Auburn 52-103 = -34 points
Coppin State lost to #4 Virginia 40-97 = -35 points
Tennessee Tech lost to #11 Michigan State 33-101 = -53 points
Comments: Just as we did with Notre dame in football, we gave Connecticut and Oregon a nice leg up. We probably won’t be able to do that for anybody for a while as we are unlikely to be ranked until we prove ourselves. The same goes for Villanova who obviously has slipped quite a bit.
Tennessee Tech lost to eventual national champion Loyola of Chicago 42-111 in the opening round of the 1963 NCAA tournament. That’s the all-time margin of defeat in the Big Dance (+69 points). So they have been there before.
THE TOP 25
Duke +58 points
Michigan +45 points
Furman +26 points
Oregon +26 points
Indiana +25 points
Auburn +23 points
Iowa +21 points
Kansas +21 points
Michigan State +20 points
Buffalo +18 points
Connecticut +18 points
Louisiana +9 points
Virginia Tech +9 points
Georgia Tech +8 points
Vermont +8 points
Wofford +7 points
Denver +6 points
Virginia Military +6 points
Purdue +4 points
Southern Illinois +4 points
Brigham Young +3 points
Cal State Bakersfield +1 point
Stanford +1 point
Army 0 points
Texas A&M 0 points
Syracuse has -2 points.
The worst total so far is Tennessee Tech with -84 points