SWC75
Bored Historian
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK ONE
Duke beat #2 Kentucky 118-84 = +58 points
Auburn beat #25 Washington 88-66 = +23 points
Kansas beat #10 Michigan State 92-87= +21 points
Michigan State lost to #1 Kansas 87-92 = +20 points
Buffalo beat #13 West Virginia 99-94 = +18 points
Southern Illinois lost to #2 Kentucky 59-71 = +12 points
Wofford lost to #8 North Carolina 67-78 = +7 points
Brigham Young lost to #7 Nevada-Reno 70-86 = +3 points
George Washington lost to #5 Virginia 57-76 = +2 points
Cal State Bakersfield lost to #20 Texas Christian 61-66 = +1 point
Army lost to #4 Duke 72-94 = 0 points
Kennesaw State lost to #12 Kansas State 41-56 = -1 point
Louisiana lost to #6 Tennessee 65-87 = -2 points
Tulane lost to #17 Florida State 69-80 = -2 points
UNC Greensboro lost to #23 Louisiana State 91-97 = -3 points
Pacific lost to #7 Nevada-Reno 61-83 = -3 points
Morehead State lost to #16 Syracuse 70-84 = -4 points
Long Beach State lost to #21 UCLA 80-91 = -6 points
Morgan State lost to #9 Villanova 77-100 = -6 points
Washington lost to #11 Auburn 66-88 = -7 points
Ball State lost to #24 Purdue 75-84 = -7 points
Florida Gulf Coast lost to #10 Michigan State 82-106 = -8 points
Hartford lost to #18 Mississippi State 59-77 = -10 points
Towson lost to #5 Virginia 42-73 = -10 points
Oral Roberts lost to #20 Texas Christian 62-79 = -11 points
Florida lost to #17 Florida State 60-81 = -12 points
Holy Cross lost to #19 Michigan 37-56 = -12 points
Kentucky lost to #4 Duke 84-118 = -12 points
Norfolk State lost to #19 Michigan 44-63 = -12 points
Texas Southern lost to #3 Gonzaga 67-104 = -14 points
Portland State lost to #14 Oregon 57-84 = -15 points
The Citadel lost to #22 Clemson 80-100 = -16 points
North Carolina Central lost to #22 Clemson 51-71 = -16 points
Quinnipiac lost to #9 Villanova 53-86 = -16 points
Gardner-Webb lost to #11 Virginia Tech 59-87 = -17 points
Western Kentucky lost to #25 Washington 55-73 = -17 points
Idaho State lost to #3 Gonzaga 79-120 = -18 points
Austin Peay lost to #18 Mississippi State 67-95 = -20 points
Fort Wayne lost to #21 UCLA 71-96 = -20 points
Eastern Washington lost to #14 Oregon 47-81 = -22 points
Eastern Washington lost to #16 Syracuse 34-66 = -22 points
Lenoir Rhyne lost to #6 Tennessee 41-86 = -25 points
South Alabama lost to #11 Auburn 58-101 = -28 points
SE Louisiana lost to #23 Louisiana State 63-94 = -28 points
Elon lost to #18 North Carolina 67-116 = -31 points
Fairfield lost to #24 Purdue 57-90 = -31 points
Comments: Duke certainly made a statement. Army actually competed against them better than Kentucky. We’ll see as we go along if Kentucky really was as good as people thought they might be. Duke sure is. I’m glad we aren’t playing them until mid-January because we have a long way to go to be the team we hope to be.
THE TOP 25
Duke +58 points
Auburn +23 points
Kansas +21 points
Michigan State +20 points
Buffalo +18 points
Southern Illinois +12 points
Wofford +7 points
Brigham Young +3 points
George Washington +2 points
Cal State Bakersfield +1 point
Army 0 points
Kennesaw State -1 point
Louisiana -2 points
Tulane -2 points
UNC Greensboro -3 points
Pacific -3 points
Morehead State -4 points
Long Beach State -6 points
Morgan State -6 points
Washington -7 points
Ball State -7 points
Florida Gulf Coast -8 points
Hartford -10 points
Towson -10 points
Oral Roberts -11 points
Syracuse hasn’t played a ranked team yet and thus has no points.
The worst total so far is Eastern Washington with -44 points, (evenly split between Syracuse and Oregon).
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK ONE
Duke beat #2 Kentucky 118-84 = +58 points
Auburn beat #25 Washington 88-66 = +23 points
Kansas beat #10 Michigan State 92-87= +21 points
Michigan State lost to #1 Kansas 87-92 = +20 points
Buffalo beat #13 West Virginia 99-94 = +18 points
Southern Illinois lost to #2 Kentucky 59-71 = +12 points
Wofford lost to #8 North Carolina 67-78 = +7 points
Brigham Young lost to #7 Nevada-Reno 70-86 = +3 points
George Washington lost to #5 Virginia 57-76 = +2 points
Cal State Bakersfield lost to #20 Texas Christian 61-66 = +1 point
Army lost to #4 Duke 72-94 = 0 points
Kennesaw State lost to #12 Kansas State 41-56 = -1 point
Louisiana lost to #6 Tennessee 65-87 = -2 points
Tulane lost to #17 Florida State 69-80 = -2 points
UNC Greensboro lost to #23 Louisiana State 91-97 = -3 points
Pacific lost to #7 Nevada-Reno 61-83 = -3 points
Morehead State lost to #16 Syracuse 70-84 = -4 points
Long Beach State lost to #21 UCLA 80-91 = -6 points
Morgan State lost to #9 Villanova 77-100 = -6 points
Washington lost to #11 Auburn 66-88 = -7 points
Ball State lost to #24 Purdue 75-84 = -7 points
Florida Gulf Coast lost to #10 Michigan State 82-106 = -8 points
Hartford lost to #18 Mississippi State 59-77 = -10 points
Towson lost to #5 Virginia 42-73 = -10 points
Oral Roberts lost to #20 Texas Christian 62-79 = -11 points
Florida lost to #17 Florida State 60-81 = -12 points
Holy Cross lost to #19 Michigan 37-56 = -12 points
Kentucky lost to #4 Duke 84-118 = -12 points
Norfolk State lost to #19 Michigan 44-63 = -12 points
Texas Southern lost to #3 Gonzaga 67-104 = -14 points
Portland State lost to #14 Oregon 57-84 = -15 points
The Citadel lost to #22 Clemson 80-100 = -16 points
North Carolina Central lost to #22 Clemson 51-71 = -16 points
Quinnipiac lost to #9 Villanova 53-86 = -16 points
Gardner-Webb lost to #11 Virginia Tech 59-87 = -17 points
Western Kentucky lost to #25 Washington 55-73 = -17 points
Idaho State lost to #3 Gonzaga 79-120 = -18 points
Austin Peay lost to #18 Mississippi State 67-95 = -20 points
Fort Wayne lost to #21 UCLA 71-96 = -20 points
Eastern Washington lost to #14 Oregon 47-81 = -22 points
Eastern Washington lost to #16 Syracuse 34-66 = -22 points
Lenoir Rhyne lost to #6 Tennessee 41-86 = -25 points
South Alabama lost to #11 Auburn 58-101 = -28 points
SE Louisiana lost to #23 Louisiana State 63-94 = -28 points
Elon lost to #18 North Carolina 67-116 = -31 points
Fairfield lost to #24 Purdue 57-90 = -31 points
Comments: Duke certainly made a statement. Army actually competed against them better than Kentucky. We’ll see as we go along if Kentucky really was as good as people thought they might be. Duke sure is. I’m glad we aren’t playing them until mid-January because we have a long way to go to be the team we hope to be.
THE TOP 25
Duke +58 points
Auburn +23 points
Kansas +21 points
Michigan State +20 points
Buffalo +18 points
Southern Illinois +12 points
Wofford +7 points
Brigham Young +3 points
George Washington +2 points
Cal State Bakersfield +1 point
Army 0 points
Kennesaw State -1 point
Louisiana -2 points
Tulane -2 points
UNC Greensboro -3 points
Pacific -3 points
Morehead State -4 points
Long Beach State -6 points
Morgan State -6 points
Washington -7 points
Ball State -7 points
Florida Gulf Coast -8 points
Hartford -10 points
Towson -10 points
Oral Roberts -11 points
Syracuse hasn’t played a ranked team yet and thus has no points.
The worst total so far is Eastern Washington with -44 points, (evenly split between Syracuse and Oregon).