Against Ranked Teams - basketball - Week 13

[SWC75]

The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.

I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.

When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Duke-Kentucky game would look like this:
Duke beat #10 Kentucky 79-71: Duke +24 Kentucky -24
Kentucky lost to #9 Duke 71-79: Kentucky +9 Duke -9
That would give Duke +15 points and Kentucky -15 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Duke +24 points and Kentucky +9 makes more sense.)

WEEK 13 (1/31-2/6)
Kansas beat #8 Baylor 83-59 Kansas +42 both ranked
Rutgers beat #13 Michigan State 84-63 Rutgers +34 Michigan State -34
Arizona beat #3 UCLA 76-66 Arizona +33 both ranked
Illinois beat #11 Wisconsin 80-67 Illinois +28 both ranked
Texas beat #20 Iowa State 63-41 Texas +28 both ranked
Arizona State beat #3 UCLA 87-84 Arizona State +26 UCLA -26
Marquette beat #12 Villanova 83-73 Marquette +24 both ranked
Georgia lost to #1 Auburn 72-74 Georgia +23 Auburn -23
Villanova beat #17 Connecticut 85-74 Villanova +18 both ranked
West Virginia lost to #8 Baylor 77-81 West Virginia +18 Baylor -18
Arizona beat #19 Southern California 72-63 Arizona +16 both ranked
Michigan lost to #4 Purdue 76-82 Michigan +16 Purdue -16
Texas Tech beat #23 Texas 77-64 Texas Tech +16 both ranked
Kansas beat #20 Iowa State 70-61 Kansas +15 both ranked
Vanderbilt lost to #5 Kentucky 70-77 Vanderbilt +14 Kentucky -14
Penn State lost to #11 Wisconsin 49-51 Penn State +13 Wisconsin -13
Maryland lost to #13 Michigan State 63-65 Maryland +11 Michigan State -11
Alabama lost to #5 Kentucky 55-66 Alabama +10 Kentucky -10
Southern California lost to #7 Arizona 63-72 So. California +10 Arizona -10
Vanderbilt beat #25 Louisiana State 75-66 Vanderbilt +10 Louisiana State -10
Tulane lost to #6 Houston 62-73 Tulane +9 Houston -9
UCLA lost to #7 Arizona 66-76 UCLA +9 both ranked
Iowa State lost to #10 Kansas 61-70 Iowa State +7 both ranked
Minnesota lost to #4 Purdue 73-88 Minnesota +7 Purdue -7
St. John’s lost to #15 Providence 82-86 St. John’s +7 Providence -7
Alabama lost to #1 Auburn 81-100 Alabama +6 Auburn -6
Creighton lost to #17 Connecticut 55-59 Creighton +5 Connecticut -5
Mississippi beat #25 Louisiana State 76-72 Mississippi +5 Louisiana State -5
West Virginia lost to #14 Texas Tech 53-60 West Virginia +5 Texas Tech -5
Butler lost to #21 Xavier 66-68 Butler +3 Xavier -3
Connecticut lost to #12 Villanova 74-85 Connecticut +3 both ranked
Notre Dame lost to #9 Duke 43-57 Notre Dame +3 Duke -3
Arizona State lost to #19 Southern California 53-58 Arizona State +2 So. California -2
Texas lost to #14 Texas Tech 64-77 Texas -1 both ranked
Cincinnati lost to #6 Houston 58-80 Cincinnati -2 Houston +2
North Carolina lost to #9 Duke 67-87 North Carolina -3 Duke +3
Maryland lost to #16 Ohio State 67-82 Maryland -5 Ohio State +5
Wisconsin lost to #18 Illinois 67-80 Wisconsin -5 both ranked
San Diego lost to #2 Gonzaga 62-92 San Diego -6 Gonzaga +6
Texas A&M lost to #22 Tennessee 80-90 Texas A&M -6 Tennessee +6
Baylor lost to #10 Kansas 59-83 Baylor -8 both ranked
Georgetown lost to #15 Providence 52-71 Georgetown -8 Providence +8
Villanova lost to #24 Marquette 73-83 Villanova -8 both ranked
Brigham Young lost to #2 Gonzaga 57-90 Brigham Young -9 Gonzaga +9
Indiana lost to #18 Illinois 57-74 Indiana -9 Illinois +9
DePaul beat #21 Xavier 69-65 DePaul +9 Xavier -9
Iowa State to #23 Texas 41-63 Iowa State -19 both ranked
South Carolina lost to #22 Tennessee 57-81 South Carolina -20 Tennessee +20


Top Ten Against Ranked Teams
Texas Tech +138
Alabama +122
Oklahoma +119
Gonzaga +118
Marquette +116
Villanova +108
Arizona +95
Kentucky +95
UCLA +84
Purdue +72

The worst is Butler -95

Syracuse is at -8. Syracuse opponents:
Arizona State +20, Auburn +47, Clemson +16, Duke +52, Florida State +17, Georgetown -24, Georgia Tech -12, Indiana +53, Lafayette -14, Louisville +3, U of Miami +10, North Carolina 0, North Carolina St. +18, Notre Dame +23, Villanova +108, Virginia -9, Virginia Commonwealth +12, Virginia Tech +22 Wake Forest +6

Top Ten as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams
Tennessee +168
Houston +158
Connecticut +141
Kentucky +130
Gonzaga +124
Texas +92
Texas Tech +73
Florida +63
Seton Hall +53
Arizona +47

The worst team is Michigan -96

Syracuse has not been ranked. Syracuse opponents:
Auburn +39, Duke -60, Florida State +29, North Carolina +12, Virginia +20

 

[djcon57]

The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking.

I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that.

When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Duke-Kentucky game would look like this:
Duke beat #10 Kentucky 79-71: Duke +24 Kentucky -24
Kentucky lost to #9 Duke 71-79: Kentucky +9 Duke -9
That would give Duke +15 points and Kentucky -15 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Duke +24 points and Kentucky +9 makes more sense.)

WEEK 13 (1/31-2/6)
Kansas beat #8 Baylor 83-59 Kansas +42 both ranked
Rutgers beat #13 Michigan State 84-63 Rutgers +34 Michigan State -34
Arizona beat #3 UCLA 76-66 Arizona +33 both ranked
Illinois beat #11 Wisconsin 80-67 Illinois +28 both ranked
Texas beat #20 Iowa State 63-41 Texas +28 both ranked
Arizona State beat #3 UCLA 87-84 Arizona State +26 UCLA -26
Marquette beat #12 Villanova 83-73 Marquette +24 both ranked
Georgia lost to #1 Auburn 72-74 Georgia +23 Auburn -23
Villanova beat #17 Connecticut 85-74 Villanova +18 both ranked
West Virginia lost to #8 Baylor 77-81 West Virginia +18 Baylor -18
Arizona beat #19 Southern California 72-63 Arizona +16 both ranked
Michigan lost to #4 Purdue 76-82 Michigan +16 Purdue -16
Texas Tech beat #23 Texas 77-64 Texas Tech +16 both ranked
Kansas beat #20 Iowa State 70-61 Kansas +15 both ranked
Vanderbilt lost to #5 Kentucky 70-77 Vanderbilt +14 Kentucky -14
Penn State lost to #11 Wisconsin 49-51 Penn State +13 Wisconsin -13
Maryland lost to #13 Michigan State 63-65 Maryland +11 Michigan State -11
Alabama lost to #5 Kentucky 55-66 Alabama +10 Kentucky -10
Southern California lost to #7 Arizona 63-72 So. California +10 Arizona -10
Vanderbilt beat #25 Louisiana State 75-66 Vanderbilt +10 Louisiana State -10
Tulane lost to #6 Houston 62-73 Tulane +9 Houston -9
UCLA lost to #7 Arizona 66-76 UCLA +9 both ranked
Iowa State lost to #10 Kansas 61-70 Iowa State +7 both ranked
Minnesota lost to #4 Purdue 73-88 Minnesota +7 Purdue -7
St. John’s lost to #15 Providence 82-86 St. John’s +7 Providence -7
Alabama lost to #1 Auburn 81-100 Alabama +6 Auburn -6
Creighton lost to #17 Connecticut 55-59 Creighton +5 Connecticut -5
Mississippi beat #25 Louisiana State 76-72 Mississippi +5 Louisiana State -5
West Virginia lost to #14 Texas Tech 53-60 West Virginia +5 Texas Tech -5
Butler lost to #21 Xavier 66-68 Butler +3 Xavier -3
Connecticut lost to #12 Villanova 74-85 Connecticut +3 both ranked
Notre Dame lost to #9 Duke 43-57 Notre Dame +3 Duke -3
Arizona State lost to #19 Southern California 53-58 Arizona State +2 So. California -2
Texas lost to #14 Texas Tech 64-77 Texas -1 both ranked
Cincinnati lost to #6 Houston 58-80 Cincinnati -2 Houston +2
North Carolina lost to #9 Duke 67-87 North Carolina -3 Duke +3
Maryland lost to #16 Ohio State 67-82 Maryland -5 Ohio State +5
Wisconsin lost to #18 Illinois 67-80 Wisconsin -5 both ranked
San Diego lost to #2 Gonzaga 62-92 San Diego -6 Gonzaga +6
Texas A&M lost to #22 Tennessee 80-90 Texas A&M -6 Tennessee +6
Baylor lost to #10 Kansas 59-83 Baylor -8 both ranked
Georgetown lost to #15 Providence 52-71 Georgetown -8 Providence +8
Villanova lost to #24 Marquette 73-83 Villanova -8 both ranked
Brigham Young lost to #2 Gonzaga 57-90 Brigham Young -9 Gonzaga +9
Indiana lost to #18 Illinois 57-74 Indiana -9 Illinois +9
DePaul beat #21 Xavier 69-65 DePaul +9 Xavier -9
Iowa State to #23 Texas 41-63 Iowa State -19 both ranked
South Carolina lost to #22 Tennessee 57-81 South Carolina -20 Tennessee +20


Top Ten Against Ranked Teams
Texas Tech +138
Alabama +122
Oklahoma +119
Gonzaga +118
Marquette +116
Villanova +108
Arizona +95
Kentucky +95
UCLA +84
Purdue +72

The worst is Butler -95

Syracuse is at -8. Syracuse opponents:
Arizona State +20, Auburn +47, Clemson +16, Duke +52, Florida State +17, Georgetown -24, Georgia Tech -12, Indiana +53, Lafayette -14, Louisville +3, U of Miami +10, North Carolina 0, North Carolina St. +18, Notre Dame +23, Villanova +108, Virginia -9, Virginia Commonwealth +12, Virginia Tech +22 Wake Forest +6

Top Ten as a Ranked Team Against Unranked Teams
Tennessee +168
Houston +158
Connecticut +141
Kentucky +130
Gonzaga +124
Texas +92
Texas Tech +73
Florida +63
Seton Hall +53
Arizona +47

The worst team is Michigan -96

Syracuse has not been ranked. Syracuse opponents:
Auburn +39, Duke -60, Florida State +29, North Carolina +12, Virginia +20

Thanks for this research, will be very interesting how it works in regards to tourney results. I know I might use it in my picks. Thinking about dropping a future bet on texas tech, in fact.

 

[SWC75]

Thanks for this research, will be very interesting how it works in regards to tourney results. I know I might use it in my picks. Thinking about dropping a future bet on texas tech, in fact.

I've been using it for my NCAA sheets the last few years and it improved my accuracy significantly over my old guesswork. Objectivity seems to work better than subjectivity.