Against Ranked Teams (basketball) - Week 18

[SWC75]

This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.

I will again be using my “new procedure” this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)

Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference is that formerly I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.

WEEK 18
Creighton beat #8 Seton Hall 77-60 = +35 points
West Virginia beat #4 Baylor 76-64 = +34 points
Rutgers beat #9 Maryland 78-67 = +28 points
Tennessee beat #6 Kentucky 81-73 = +28 points
Utah State beat #5 San Diego State 59-56 = +24 points
Texas Tech lost to #1 Kansas 62-66 = +21 points
Villanova beat #8 Seton Hall 79-77 = +20 points
Florida lost to #6 Kentucky 70-71 = +19 points
Texas Tech lost to #4 Baylor 68-71 = +19 points
Virginia beat #10 Louisville 57-54 = +19 points
Michigan State beat #19 Ohio State 80-69 = +18 points
Northwestern beat #20 Penn State 69-80 = +17 points
Notre Dame lost to #7 Florida State 71-73 = +17 points
Purdue lost to #18 Iowa 77-68 = +17 points
Texas Christian lost to #1 Kansas 66-75 = +16 points
Maryland beat #25 Michigan 83-70 = +14 points
Michigan State beat #20 Penn State 79-71 = +14 points
Texas A&M beat #17 Auburn 78-75 = +12 points
Connecticut beat #21 Houston 77-71 = +11 points
Georgetown lost to #14 Villanova 69-70 = +11 points
Ohio State beat #23 Illinois 71-63 = +11 points
Illinois beat #18 Iowa 78-76 = +10 points
Seton Hall lost to #14 Villanova 77-79 = +10 points
Air Force lost to #5 San Diego State 60-73 = +8 points
Boise State lost to #5 San Diego State 68-81 = +8 points
Michigan lost to #9 Maryland 70-83 = +4 points
Rhode Island lost to #3 Dayton 57-84 = +4 points
U of Miami lost to #22 Virginia 44-46 = +2 points
Penn State lost to #16 Michigan State 71-79 = +2 points
Boston College lost to #7 Florida State 62-80 = +1 point
Louisville lost to #22 Virginia 54-57 = +1 point
North Carolina lost to #12 Duke 76-89 = +1 point
Georgetown lost to #11 Creighton 76-91 = 0 points
Stanford lost to #13 Oregon 67-80 = 0 points
Illinois lost to #19 Ohio State 63-71 = -1 points
Iowa lost to #23 Illinois 76-78 = -1 points
Ohio State lost to Michigan State 69-80 = -1 points
George Washington lost to #3 Dayton 51-76 = -2 points
Indiana lost to #24 Wisconsin 56-60 = -2 points
Memphis lost to #21 Houston 57-64 = -2 points
Seton Hall lost to #11 Creighton 60-77 = -2 points
North Carolina State lost to #12 Duke 69-88 = -5 points
Northwestern lost to #24 Wisconsin 48-63 = -13 points
Tennessee lost to #17 Auburn 63-85 = -13 points
California lost to #13 Oregon 56-90 = -21 points
Nebraska lost to #25 Michigan 58-82 = -23 points

Comment: Plenty of meaty games and more to come but chaos still reigns. The list below surely is not the nation’s best teams in rank order. That’s just a measure of how they did against the teams as ranked in the AP Top 25. The fact that so many up and down and unheralded teams are in my listing just shows you how wild this year has been – and promises to continue being.

Top 25

Michigan State +169 points
Ohio State +163 points
Creighton +160 points
Purdue +154 points
Texas Tech +143 points

Baylor +135 points
Iowa +127 points
Kansas +123 points
Virginia +121 points
Florida State +120 points

Seton Hall +120 points
Providence +117 points
Rutgers +114 points
Kentucky +106 points
Oklahoma +105 points

Oregon +99 points
Michigan +95 points
West Virginia +92 points
Florida +88 points
Villanova +88 points

Duke +84 points
Wisconsin +83 points
Clemson +81 points
Marquette +79 points
Georgetown +74 points

Syracuse has +31 points

SU’s opponents: Virginia +121, Colgate -22, Seattle -18, Cornell -25, Bucknell none, Oklahoma State +2, Penn State +58, Iowa +127, Georgia Tech +31, Georgetown +74, Oakland -24, North Florida -17, Niagara 0, Notre Dame +35, Virginia Tech +17, Virginia +121, Boston College +15, Virginia Tech +17, Notre Dame +35, Pittsburgh +25, Clemson +81, Duke +84, Wake Forest +41, North Carolina State +62, Florida State +120, Louisville +67, Georgia Tech +58, Pittsburgh +25, North Carolina +65, Boston College +15, U of Miami -2


The worst team so far is Alabama State with -71 points. Don’t spend it all in one place…

 

[Wrinkle]

Good stuff SWC, but surely we want to divide those final numbers by games played against ranked teams, no?

 

[SWC75]

Good stuff SWC, but surely we want to divide those final numbers by games played against ranked teams, no?

The more ranked teams you've played, the more the numbers mean and the more battle-tested the team is.