SWC75
Bored Historian
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I will again be using my “new procedure” this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference is that formerly I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 6
Texas Tech beat #1 Louisville 70-57 = +38 points
Minnesota beat #3 Ohio State 84-71 = +36 points
Illinois beat #5 Michigan 71-62 = +30 points
Penn State beat #4 Maryland 76-69 = +29 points
Rutgers beat #22 Seton Hall 68-48 = +24 points
Oregon beat #5 Michigan 71-70 = +22 points
Arizona lost to #6 Gonzaga 80-84 = +16 points
Gonzaga beat #15 Arizona 84-80 = +15 points
Michigan lost to #10 Oregon 70-71 = +15 points
Butler lost to #11 Baylor 52-53 = +14 points
Wofford beat #17 North Carolina 68-64 = +13 points
Memphis beat #19 Tennessee 51-47 = +11 points
Baylor beat #18 Butler 53-52 = +9 points
Tennessee lost to #13 Memphis 47-51 = +9 points
St. Louis lost to #12 Auburn 61-67 = +8 points
Northern Iowa beat #24 Colorado 79-76 = +5 points
Wake Forest beat #23 Xavier 80-78 = +5 points
Georgia Tech lost to #8 Kentucky 53-67 +4 points
Delaware lost to #20 Villanova 70-78 = +2 points
Colorado State lost to Colorado 48-56 = -6 points
Eastern Kentucky lost to #1 Louisville 67-99 = -7 points
Oakland lost to #16 Michigan State 49-72 = -13 points
Drake lost to #14 Dayton 47-78 = -17 points
Missouri-Kansas City lost to #2 Kansas 57-98 = -17 points
Southern U. lost to #18 Butler 41-66 = -17 points
Omaha lost to #15 Arizona 49-99 = -39 points
Comments: Fewer games were played due to exams and holidays but there were still some significant results. The balance and lack of overpowering teams this year was under-scored by the fact that a dozen ranked teams went down, (it was a good week to be playing Michigan). And some fo the upsets were not that close, producing large point totals.
Top 25
Ohio State +85 points
Michigan +79 points
Oregon +75 points
Purdue +59 points
Duke +52 points
Baylor +46 points
Michigan State +46 points
Florida State +44 points
Gonzaga +42 points
Kansas +40 points
Louisville +38 points
Texas Tech +38 points
Georgetown +37 points
Tennessee +37 points
Illinois +36 points
Minnesota +36 points
Iowa +35 points
Kentucky +32 points
Virginia Tech +30 points
Evansville +28 points
Virginia +28 points
Rutgers +27 points
Stephen . Austin +27 points
North Carolina +26 points
Iowa State +25 points
Syracuse has +1 point
SU’s opponents: Virginia +28, Colgate -22, Seattle none, Cornell none, Bucknell none, Oklahoma State none, Penn State +17, Iowa +35, Georgia Tech +4, Georgetown +37, Oakland -11, North Florida +5, Niagara 0, Notre Dame +3, Virginia Tech +30, Virginia +28, Boston College none, Virginia Tech +30, Notre Dame +3, Pittsburgh +7, Clemson +1, Duke +52, Wake Forest -5, North Carolina State +5, Florida State +44, Louisville +38, Georgia Tech none, Pittsburgh +7, North Carolina +26, Boston College none, U of Miami +7
The worst team so far is Central Arkansas with -61 points. Don’t spend it all in one place…
I will again be using my “new procedure” this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference is that formerly I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 6
Texas Tech beat #1 Louisville 70-57 = +38 points
Minnesota beat #3 Ohio State 84-71 = +36 points
Illinois beat #5 Michigan 71-62 = +30 points
Penn State beat #4 Maryland 76-69 = +29 points
Rutgers beat #22 Seton Hall 68-48 = +24 points
Oregon beat #5 Michigan 71-70 = +22 points
Arizona lost to #6 Gonzaga 80-84 = +16 points
Gonzaga beat #15 Arizona 84-80 = +15 points
Michigan lost to #10 Oregon 70-71 = +15 points
Butler lost to #11 Baylor 52-53 = +14 points
Wofford beat #17 North Carolina 68-64 = +13 points
Memphis beat #19 Tennessee 51-47 = +11 points
Baylor beat #18 Butler 53-52 = +9 points
Tennessee lost to #13 Memphis 47-51 = +9 points
St. Louis lost to #12 Auburn 61-67 = +8 points
Northern Iowa beat #24 Colorado 79-76 = +5 points
Wake Forest beat #23 Xavier 80-78 = +5 points
Georgia Tech lost to #8 Kentucky 53-67 +4 points
Delaware lost to #20 Villanova 70-78 = +2 points
Colorado State lost to Colorado 48-56 = -6 points
Eastern Kentucky lost to #1 Louisville 67-99 = -7 points
Oakland lost to #16 Michigan State 49-72 = -13 points
Drake lost to #14 Dayton 47-78 = -17 points
Missouri-Kansas City lost to #2 Kansas 57-98 = -17 points
Southern U. lost to #18 Butler 41-66 = -17 points
Omaha lost to #15 Arizona 49-99 = -39 points
Comments: Fewer games were played due to exams and holidays but there were still some significant results. The balance and lack of overpowering teams this year was under-scored by the fact that a dozen ranked teams went down, (it was a good week to be playing Michigan). And some fo the upsets were not that close, producing large point totals.
Top 25
Ohio State +85 points
Michigan +79 points
Oregon +75 points
Purdue +59 points
Duke +52 points
Baylor +46 points
Michigan State +46 points
Florida State +44 points
Gonzaga +42 points
Kansas +40 points
Louisville +38 points
Texas Tech +38 points
Georgetown +37 points
Tennessee +37 points
Illinois +36 points
Minnesota +36 points
Iowa +35 points
Kentucky +32 points
Virginia Tech +30 points
Evansville +28 points
Virginia +28 points
Rutgers +27 points
Stephen . Austin +27 points
North Carolina +26 points
Iowa State +25 points
Syracuse has +1 point
SU’s opponents: Virginia +28, Colgate -22, Seattle none, Cornell none, Bucknell none, Oklahoma State none, Penn State +17, Iowa +35, Georgia Tech +4, Georgetown +37, Oakland -11, North Florida +5, Niagara 0, Notre Dame +3, Virginia Tech +30, Virginia +28, Boston College none, Virginia Tech +30, Notre Dame +3, Pittsburgh +7, Clemson +1, Duke +52, Wake Forest -5, North Carolina State +5, Florida State +44, Louisville +38, Georgia Tech none, Pittsburgh +7, North Carolina +26, Boston College none, U of Miami +7
The worst team so far is Central Arkansas with -61 points. Don’t spend it all in one place…
