SWC75
Bored Historian
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I will again be using my “new procedure” this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference is that formerly I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
Week 9
Florida State beat #7 Louisville 78-65 = +32 points
Michigan State beat #12 Michigan 87-69 = +32 points
Colorado beat #4 Oregon 74-65 = +31 points
Marquette beat #10 Villanova 71-60 = +27 points
Wisconsin beat #5 Ohio State 61-57 = +25 points
Georgia beat #9 Memphis 65-62 = +20 points
Pepperdine lost to #1 Gonzaga 70-75 = +20 points
Kansas beat #16 West Virginia 60-53 = +17 points
Utah lost to #4 Oregon 64-69 = +17 points
West Virginia lost to #3 Kansas 53-60 = +16 points
St. John’s lost to #11 Butler 58-60 = +13 points
Portland lost to #1 Gonzaga 72-85 = +12 points
Xavier lost to #10 Villanova 62-68 = +10 points
Mississippi State lost to #8 Auburn 68-80 = +6 points
Penn State beat #23 Iowa 89-86 = +6 points
Tulane lost to #9 Memphis 73-84 = +6 points
Texas Lost to #6 Baylor 44-59 = +5 points
Detroit Mercy lost to #1 Gonzaga 72-93 = +4 points
Fresno State lost to #13 San Diego State 52-61 = +4 points
Utah State lost to #13 San Diego State 68-77 = +4 points
Iowa lost to #21 Penn State 86-89 = +2 points
Creighton lost to #11 Butler 57-71 = +1 point
Missouri lost to #17 Kentucky 59-71 = -3 points
East Carolina lost to #24 Wichita State 69-75 = -4 points
Georgia Tech lost to #18 Florida State 58-70 = -4 points
Indiana lost to #15 Maryland 59-75 = -5 points
Louisville lost to #18 Florida State 65-78 = -5 points
Jackson State lost to #6 Baylor 57-83 = -6 points
Michigan lost to #14 Michigan State 69-87 = -6 points
St. Joseph’s lost to #20 Dayton 67-80 = -7 points
Illinois lost to #14 Michigan State 56-76 = -8 points
U of Miami lost to #2 Duke 62-95 = -9 points
North Florida lost to #20 Dayton 59-77 = -12 points
Boston College lost to #2 Duke 49-88 = -15 points
Mississippi lost to #24 Wichita State 54-74 = -18 points
Virginia Tech lost to #19 Virginia 39-65 = -19 points
LaSalle lost to #20 Dayton 58-84 = -20 points
Arizona State lost to #25 Arizona 47-75 = -27 points
Oklahoma State lost to #22 Texas Tech 50-85 = -31 points
Comment: Now we get down to business.. Not many ‘directional’ schools here. Detroit mercy, Portland and Pepperdine all gained points against Gonzaga. Duke was impressive with 39 and 33 point wins.
Top 25
Ohio State +107 points
Kentucky +78 points
Michigan State +78 points
Oregon +75 points
Michigan +73 points
Florida State +72 points
Kansas +64 points
Purdue +59 points
Duke +52 points
West Virginia +48 points
Baylor +46 points
Colorado +46 points
Gonzaga +42 points
Texas Tech +38 points
Georgetown +37 points
Iowa +37 points
North Carolina +37 points
Tennessee +37 points
Minnesota +36 points
Seton Hall +36 points
Georgia +35 points
Louisville +32 points
Pepperdine +30 points
Wisconsin +29 points
Evansville +28 points
Illinois +28 points
South Carolina +28 points
Virginia +28 points
Syracuse has +1 point
SU’s opponents: Virginia +28, Colgate -22, Seattle -18, Cornell none, Bucknell none, Oklahoma State none, Penn State +23, Iowa +37, Georgia Tech 0, Georgetown +37, Oakland -11, North Florida -5, Niagara 0, Notre Dame +3, Virginia Tech +11, Virginia +28, Boston College -15, Virginia Tech +11, Notre Dame +3, Pittsburgh +7, Clemson +1, Duke +52, Wake Forest -5, North Carolina State +13, Florida State +76, Louisville +32, Georgia Tech 0, Pittsburgh +7, North Carolina +37, Boston College -15, U of Miami -2
The worst team so far is Alabama State with -71 points. Don’t spend it all in one place…
I will again be using my “new procedure” this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference is that formerly I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
Week 9
Florida State beat #7 Louisville 78-65 = +32 points
Michigan State beat #12 Michigan 87-69 = +32 points
Colorado beat #4 Oregon 74-65 = +31 points
Marquette beat #10 Villanova 71-60 = +27 points
Wisconsin beat #5 Ohio State 61-57 = +25 points
Georgia beat #9 Memphis 65-62 = +20 points
Pepperdine lost to #1 Gonzaga 70-75 = +20 points
Kansas beat #16 West Virginia 60-53 = +17 points
Utah lost to #4 Oregon 64-69 = +17 points
West Virginia lost to #3 Kansas 53-60 = +16 points
St. John’s lost to #11 Butler 58-60 = +13 points
Portland lost to #1 Gonzaga 72-85 = +12 points
Xavier lost to #10 Villanova 62-68 = +10 points
Mississippi State lost to #8 Auburn 68-80 = +6 points
Penn State beat #23 Iowa 89-86 = +6 points
Tulane lost to #9 Memphis 73-84 = +6 points
Texas Lost to #6 Baylor 44-59 = +5 points
Detroit Mercy lost to #1 Gonzaga 72-93 = +4 points
Fresno State lost to #13 San Diego State 52-61 = +4 points
Utah State lost to #13 San Diego State 68-77 = +4 points
Iowa lost to #21 Penn State 86-89 = +2 points
Creighton lost to #11 Butler 57-71 = +1 point
Missouri lost to #17 Kentucky 59-71 = -3 points
East Carolina lost to #24 Wichita State 69-75 = -4 points
Georgia Tech lost to #18 Florida State 58-70 = -4 points
Indiana lost to #15 Maryland 59-75 = -5 points
Louisville lost to #18 Florida State 65-78 = -5 points
Jackson State lost to #6 Baylor 57-83 = -6 points
Michigan lost to #14 Michigan State 69-87 = -6 points
St. Joseph’s lost to #20 Dayton 67-80 = -7 points
Illinois lost to #14 Michigan State 56-76 = -8 points
U of Miami lost to #2 Duke 62-95 = -9 points
North Florida lost to #20 Dayton 59-77 = -12 points
Boston College lost to #2 Duke 49-88 = -15 points
Mississippi lost to #24 Wichita State 54-74 = -18 points
Virginia Tech lost to #19 Virginia 39-65 = -19 points
LaSalle lost to #20 Dayton 58-84 = -20 points
Arizona State lost to #25 Arizona 47-75 = -27 points
Oklahoma State lost to #22 Texas Tech 50-85 = -31 points
Comment: Now we get down to business.. Not many ‘directional’ schools here. Detroit mercy, Portland and Pepperdine all gained points against Gonzaga. Duke was impressive with 39 and 33 point wins.
Top 25
Ohio State +107 points
Kentucky +78 points
Michigan State +78 points
Oregon +75 points
Michigan +73 points
Florida State +72 points
Kansas +64 points
Purdue +59 points
Duke +52 points
West Virginia +48 points
Baylor +46 points
Colorado +46 points
Gonzaga +42 points
Texas Tech +38 points
Georgetown +37 points
Iowa +37 points
North Carolina +37 points
Tennessee +37 points
Minnesota +36 points
Seton Hall +36 points
Georgia +35 points
Louisville +32 points
Pepperdine +30 points
Wisconsin +29 points
Evansville +28 points
Illinois +28 points
South Carolina +28 points
Virginia +28 points
Syracuse has +1 point
SU’s opponents: Virginia +28, Colgate -22, Seattle -18, Cornell none, Bucknell none, Oklahoma State none, Penn State +23, Iowa +37, Georgia Tech 0, Georgetown +37, Oakland -11, North Florida -5, Niagara 0, Notre Dame +3, Virginia Tech +11, Virginia +28, Boston College -15, Virginia Tech +11, Notre Dame +3, Pittsburgh +7, Clemson +1, Duke +52, Wake Forest -5, North Carolina State +13, Florida State +76, Louisville +32, Georgia Tech 0, Pittsburgh +7, North Carolina +37, Boston College -15, U of Miami -2
The worst team so far is Alabama State with -71 points. Don’t spend it all in one place…
