SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 14 (2/5-11/18)
Alabama beat #15 Tennessee 78-50 = +39 points
Baylor beat #10 Kansas 80-64 = +32 points
St. John’s beat #1 Villanova 79-75 = +29 points
Gonzaga beat #11 St. Mary’s 78-65 = +28 points
Michigan State beat #3 Purdue 68-65 = +26 points
Virginia Tech beat #2 Virginia 61-60 = +25 points
Ohio State beat #3 Purdue 64-63 = +24 points
North Carolina beat #9 Duke 82-78 = +21 points
Florida State lost to #2 Virginia 55-59 = +20 points
Creighton lost to #5 Xavier 71-72 = +20 points
Purdue lost to #4 Michigan State 65-68 = +19 points
Iowa lost to #4 Michigan State 93-96 = +19 points
Texas A&M beat #8 Auburn 81-80 = +19 points
Iowa State beat #17 Oklahoma 88-80 = +17 points
Butler lost to #5 Xavier 93-98 = +16 points
Northwestern beat #20 Michigan 61-52 = +15 points
Butler lost to #1 Villanova 75-86 = +14 points
Texas A&M beat #24 Kentucky 85-74 = +13 points
UNLV beat #23 Nevada-Reno 86-78 = +11 points
West Virginia beat #17 Oklahoma 75-73 = +11 points
Oklahoma State beat #19 West Virginia 88-85 = +10 points
Texas Christian lost to #10 Kansas 64-71 = +9 points
Georgia Tech lost to #9 Duke 69-80 = +6 points
Kentucky lost to #19 Tennessee 59-61 = +5 points
Oklahoma lost to #19 West Virginia 73-75 = +5 points
UCLA lost to #13 Arizona 74-82 = +5 points
Pacific lost to #12 Gonzaga 61-71 = +4 points
Tennessee beat #24 Kentucky 61-59 = +4 points
Boston College beat #25 U of Miami 72-70 = +3 points
Duke lost to #21 North Carolina 78-82 = +1 point
Iowa State lost to #7 Texas Tech 58-76 = +1 point
Purdue lost to #24 Ohio State 63-64 = +1 point
Georgia lost to #8 Auburn 61-78 = +1 point
St. Mary’s lost to #12 Gonzaga 65-78 = +1 point
Kansas State lost to #7 Texas Tech 47-66 = 0 points
Southern California lost to #13 Arizona 67-81 = -1 point
North Carolina State lost to North Carolina 89-96 = -2 points
Davidson lost to #18 Rhode Island 59-72 = -5 points
Southern Methodist lost to #6 Cincinnati 51-76 = -5 points
Wake Forest lost to #25 U of Miami 81-87 = -5 points
Wisconsin lost to #20 Michigan 72-83 = -5 points
Iowa lost to #14 Ohio State 64-82 = -6 points
Loyola Marymount lost to #11 St. Mary’s 62-83 = -6 points
Pittsburgh lost to #16 Clemson 48-72 = -8 points
Memphis lost to #22 Wichita State 65-85 = -16 points
Central Florida lost to #6 Cincinnati 40-77 = -17 points
Connecticut lost to #22 Wichita State 74-95 = -17 points
San Diego State lost to #23 Nevada-Reno 58-83 = -22 points
Comments: The Big 12 is full of ranked teams so they gain more points playing rnaked teams. Thus three of the top five teams in the ranking below are from that conference. Alabama semes to be the nation’s best kept secret and a team to watch out for in March.
Top 25
Alabama +145 points
Texas Tech +142 points
Oklahoma +122 points
Michigan State +118 points
Texas A&M +105 points
Duke +94 points
St. John’s +94 points
Florida State +93 points
North Carolina State +93 points
Purdue +92 points
Xavier +91 points
Florida +90 points
Texas +87 points
Marquette +84 points
Texas Christian +84 points
Virginia +84 points
Oklahoma State +82 points
Villanova +70 points
Michigan +69 points
Kansas +67 points
West Virginia +66 points
Southern Methodist +65 points
Arizona State +64 points
Butler +63 points
Nebraska +62 points
Syracuse has +25 points from the losses to Kansas, Virginia (twice) and Florida State
Our future opponents: North Carolina State +93 Miami +38 North Carolina +59 Duke +94 Boston College +22 Clemson +35
The worst team so far is Savannah State with -151 points.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 14 (2/5-11/18)
Alabama beat #15 Tennessee 78-50 = +39 points
Baylor beat #10 Kansas 80-64 = +32 points
St. John’s beat #1 Villanova 79-75 = +29 points
Gonzaga beat #11 St. Mary’s 78-65 = +28 points
Michigan State beat #3 Purdue 68-65 = +26 points
Virginia Tech beat #2 Virginia 61-60 = +25 points
Ohio State beat #3 Purdue 64-63 = +24 points
North Carolina beat #9 Duke 82-78 = +21 points
Florida State lost to #2 Virginia 55-59 = +20 points
Creighton lost to #5 Xavier 71-72 = +20 points
Purdue lost to #4 Michigan State 65-68 = +19 points
Iowa lost to #4 Michigan State 93-96 = +19 points
Texas A&M beat #8 Auburn 81-80 = +19 points
Iowa State beat #17 Oklahoma 88-80 = +17 points
Butler lost to #5 Xavier 93-98 = +16 points
Northwestern beat #20 Michigan 61-52 = +15 points
Butler lost to #1 Villanova 75-86 = +14 points
Texas A&M beat #24 Kentucky 85-74 = +13 points
UNLV beat #23 Nevada-Reno 86-78 = +11 points
West Virginia beat #17 Oklahoma 75-73 = +11 points
Oklahoma State beat #19 West Virginia 88-85 = +10 points
Texas Christian lost to #10 Kansas 64-71 = +9 points
Georgia Tech lost to #9 Duke 69-80 = +6 points
Kentucky lost to #19 Tennessee 59-61 = +5 points
Oklahoma lost to #19 West Virginia 73-75 = +5 points
UCLA lost to #13 Arizona 74-82 = +5 points
Pacific lost to #12 Gonzaga 61-71 = +4 points
Tennessee beat #24 Kentucky 61-59 = +4 points
Boston College beat #25 U of Miami 72-70 = +3 points
Duke lost to #21 North Carolina 78-82 = +1 point
Iowa State lost to #7 Texas Tech 58-76 = +1 point
Purdue lost to #24 Ohio State 63-64 = +1 point
Georgia lost to #8 Auburn 61-78 = +1 point
St. Mary’s lost to #12 Gonzaga 65-78 = +1 point
Kansas State lost to #7 Texas Tech 47-66 = 0 points
Southern California lost to #13 Arizona 67-81 = -1 point
North Carolina State lost to North Carolina 89-96 = -2 points
Davidson lost to #18 Rhode Island 59-72 = -5 points
Southern Methodist lost to #6 Cincinnati 51-76 = -5 points
Wake Forest lost to #25 U of Miami 81-87 = -5 points
Wisconsin lost to #20 Michigan 72-83 = -5 points
Iowa lost to #14 Ohio State 64-82 = -6 points
Loyola Marymount lost to #11 St. Mary’s 62-83 = -6 points
Pittsburgh lost to #16 Clemson 48-72 = -8 points
Memphis lost to #22 Wichita State 65-85 = -16 points
Central Florida lost to #6 Cincinnati 40-77 = -17 points
Connecticut lost to #22 Wichita State 74-95 = -17 points
San Diego State lost to #23 Nevada-Reno 58-83 = -22 points
Comments: The Big 12 is full of ranked teams so they gain more points playing rnaked teams. Thus three of the top five teams in the ranking below are from that conference. Alabama semes to be the nation’s best kept secret and a team to watch out for in March.
Top 25
Alabama +145 points
Texas Tech +142 points
Oklahoma +122 points
Michigan State +118 points
Texas A&M +105 points
Duke +94 points
St. John’s +94 points
Florida State +93 points
North Carolina State +93 points
Purdue +92 points
Xavier +91 points
Florida +90 points
Texas +87 points
Marquette +84 points
Texas Christian +84 points
Virginia +84 points
Oklahoma State +82 points
Villanova +70 points
Michigan +69 points
Kansas +67 points
West Virginia +66 points
Southern Methodist +65 points
Arizona State +64 points
Butler +63 points
Nebraska +62 points
Syracuse has +25 points from the losses to Kansas, Virginia (twice) and Florida State
Our future opponents: North Carolina State +93 Miami +38 North Carolina +59 Duke +94 Boston College +22 Clemson +35
The worst team so far is Savannah State with -151 points.