SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the NCAA tournament start. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. This is just one thing to look at. But I think it’s a big thing.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 15 (2/12-18)
Penn State beat #8 Ohio State 79-56 = +41 points
Villanova beat #4 Xavier 95-79 = +38 points
Michigan beat #8 Ohio State 74-62 = +30 points
Providence beat #3 Villanova 76-71 = +28 points
South Carolina beat #10 Auburn 84-75 = +25 points
Arkansas beat #21 Texas A&M 94-75 = +24 points
Duke beat #11 Clemson 66-57 = +24 points
Wisconsin beat #6 Purdue 57-53 = +24 points
Baylor beat #7 Texas Tech 59-57 = +21 points
Georgia beat #18 Tennessee 73-62 = +19 points
Northwestern lost to #2 Michigan State 60-65 = +19 points
San Francisco beat #15 Saint Mary’s 70-63 = +18 points
Wichita State beat #5 Cincinnati 76-72 = +17 points
Florida State beat #11 Clemson 81-79 = +17 points
Penn State lost to #6 Purdue 73-76 = +17 points
Houston beat #5 Cincinnati 67-62 = +16 points
U of Miami lost to #1 Virginia 50-59 = +16 points
Kansas beat #20 West Virginia 77-69 = +14 points
St. Bonaventure beat #16 Rhode Island 74-77 = +13 points
Texas Tech beat #23 Oklahoma 88-78 = +13 points
Seton Hall lost to #4 Xavier 90-102 = +10 points
Texas beat #23 Oklahoma 77-66 = +10 points
Missouri beat #21 Texas A&M 62-58 = +9 points
Oklahoma lost to #7 Texas Tech 78-88 = +9 points
Arizona beat #25 Arizona State 77-70 = +8 points
Iowa State lost to #13 Kansas 77-83 = +7 points
Xavier lost to #3 Villanova 79-95 = +7 points
Kentucky lost to #10 Auburn 66-76 = +6 points
Clemson lost to #12 Duke 57-66 = +5 points
South Carolina lost to #18 Tennessee 67-70 = +5 points
Cincinnati lost to #19 Wichita State 72-76 = +3 points
Pepperdine lost to #9 Gonzaga 67-81 = +3 points
Arizona State lost to #17 Arizona 70-77 = +2 points
Temple lost to #19 Wichita State 86-93 = 0 points
Portland lost to #15 Saint Mary’s 61-73 = -1 point
Boise State lost to #24 Nevada-Reno 72-77 = -3 points
Ohio State lost to #22 Michigan 62-74 = -4 points
Utah State lost to #24 Nevada-Reno 87-93 = -4 points
Louisville lost to #14 North Carolina 76-93 = -5 points
Notre Dame lost to #14 North Carolina 66-83 = -5 points
Minnesota lost to #2 Michigan State 57-87 = -6 points
Virginia Tech lost to #12 Duke 52-74 = -8 points
Richmond lost to #16 Rhode Island 67-85 = -8 points
Texas Christian lost to #20 West Virginia 66-82 = -10 points
Iowa lost to #22 Michigan 59-74 = -11 points
Loyola Marymount lost to #9 Gonzaga 46-76 = -13 points
Comments: A lot of teams that have been having great seasons have bene having bad weeks. Oklahoma has now lost 6 in a row. Ohio State is getting walloped. Cincinnati lost twice. Is Penn State really better than us at basketball now? (They are 19-10 and 9-7 in the Big Ten).
Top 25
Texas Tech +155 points
Alabama +145 points
Oklahoma +122 points
Duke +118 points
Michigan State +118 points
Florida State +110 points
Villanova +108 points
Texas A&M +105 points
Michigan +99 points
Xavier +98 points
Texas +97 points
St. John’s +94 points
North Carolina State +93 points
Purdue +92 points
Florida +90 points
Penn State +86 points
Marquette +84 points
Texas Christian +84 points
Virginia +84 points
Oklahoma State +82 points
Kansas +81 points
Baylor +74 points
Arizona State +66 points
West Virginia +66 points
Southern Methodist +65 points
Syracuse has +25 points from the losses to Kansas, Virginia (twice) and Florida State
Our future opponents: North Carolina +59 Duke +118 Boston College +22 Clemson +40
The worst team so far is Savannah State with -151 points.
I’m going to do it a bit differently this year. The old procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this year and last year if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 15 (2/12-18)
Penn State beat #8 Ohio State 79-56 = +41 points
Villanova beat #4 Xavier 95-79 = +38 points
Michigan beat #8 Ohio State 74-62 = +30 points
Providence beat #3 Villanova 76-71 = +28 points
South Carolina beat #10 Auburn 84-75 = +25 points
Arkansas beat #21 Texas A&M 94-75 = +24 points
Duke beat #11 Clemson 66-57 = +24 points
Wisconsin beat #6 Purdue 57-53 = +24 points
Baylor beat #7 Texas Tech 59-57 = +21 points
Georgia beat #18 Tennessee 73-62 = +19 points
Northwestern lost to #2 Michigan State 60-65 = +19 points
San Francisco beat #15 Saint Mary’s 70-63 = +18 points
Wichita State beat #5 Cincinnati 76-72 = +17 points
Florida State beat #11 Clemson 81-79 = +17 points
Penn State lost to #6 Purdue 73-76 = +17 points
Houston beat #5 Cincinnati 67-62 = +16 points
U of Miami lost to #1 Virginia 50-59 = +16 points
Kansas beat #20 West Virginia 77-69 = +14 points
St. Bonaventure beat #16 Rhode Island 74-77 = +13 points
Texas Tech beat #23 Oklahoma 88-78 = +13 points
Seton Hall lost to #4 Xavier 90-102 = +10 points
Texas beat #23 Oklahoma 77-66 = +10 points
Missouri beat #21 Texas A&M 62-58 = +9 points
Oklahoma lost to #7 Texas Tech 78-88 = +9 points
Arizona beat #25 Arizona State 77-70 = +8 points
Iowa State lost to #13 Kansas 77-83 = +7 points
Xavier lost to #3 Villanova 79-95 = +7 points
Kentucky lost to #10 Auburn 66-76 = +6 points
Clemson lost to #12 Duke 57-66 = +5 points
South Carolina lost to #18 Tennessee 67-70 = +5 points
Cincinnati lost to #19 Wichita State 72-76 = +3 points
Pepperdine lost to #9 Gonzaga 67-81 = +3 points
Arizona State lost to #17 Arizona 70-77 = +2 points
Temple lost to #19 Wichita State 86-93 = 0 points
Portland lost to #15 Saint Mary’s 61-73 = -1 point
Boise State lost to #24 Nevada-Reno 72-77 = -3 points
Ohio State lost to #22 Michigan 62-74 = -4 points
Utah State lost to #24 Nevada-Reno 87-93 = -4 points
Louisville lost to #14 North Carolina 76-93 = -5 points
Notre Dame lost to #14 North Carolina 66-83 = -5 points
Minnesota lost to #2 Michigan State 57-87 = -6 points
Virginia Tech lost to #12 Duke 52-74 = -8 points
Richmond lost to #16 Rhode Island 67-85 = -8 points
Texas Christian lost to #20 West Virginia 66-82 = -10 points
Iowa lost to #22 Michigan 59-74 = -11 points
Loyola Marymount lost to #9 Gonzaga 46-76 = -13 points
Comments: A lot of teams that have been having great seasons have bene having bad weeks. Oklahoma has now lost 6 in a row. Ohio State is getting walloped. Cincinnati lost twice. Is Penn State really better than us at basketball now? (They are 19-10 and 9-7 in the Big Ten).
Top 25
Texas Tech +155 points
Alabama +145 points
Oklahoma +122 points
Duke +118 points
Michigan State +118 points
Florida State +110 points
Villanova +108 points
Texas A&M +105 points
Michigan +99 points
Xavier +98 points
Texas +97 points
St. John’s +94 points
North Carolina State +93 points
Purdue +92 points
Florida +90 points
Penn State +86 points
Marquette +84 points
Texas Christian +84 points
Virginia +84 points
Oklahoma State +82 points
Kansas +81 points
Baylor +74 points
Arizona State +66 points
West Virginia +66 points
Southern Methodist +65 points
Syracuse has +25 points from the losses to Kansas, Virginia (twice) and Florida State
Our future opponents: North Carolina +59 Duke +118 Boston College +22 Clemson +40
The worst team so far is Savannah State with -151 points.