Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3775698, member: 289"] The last few years I’ve attempted to quantify team’s performances against ranked teams, (historically a big factor in decisions made about getting into playoffs) with a system that gives points to teams for the ranking of their opponents and adds or subtracts the point differential in their games, (adds in a win, subtracts in a loss). The ‘ranking’ points are 25 for playing a #1 ranked team, 24 for playing a #2 ranked team, etc, down to 1 point for playing a 25th ranked team. These points are easily computed by subtracting the ranking number from 26, (26-1 = 25; 26-25 =1, etc). Over the course of the season, I add the points earned by each team in their games against ranked teams as a sort of standings but have always maintained that this is just one thing to look at in evaluating the team, not a final overall ranking. I didn’t do that for this year’s football season because with some conferences opting out and then opting back in later in the seasons, the rankings were a mess. But everybody is playing basketball now, or trying to, so I’ve decided to keep track of performances against ranked teams in this sport. I’ve decided to add an extra wrinkle: I will keep track of the performances of the ranked teams themselves by totaling the points earned against them, with the +/- reversed. This will measure their performance “as a ranked team” We’ll see how that goes and I’ll decide whether to continue with that. (First alteration: When ranked teams play each other, their only points will be under the first test. Otherwise the Gonzaga-Kansas game would look like this: Gonzaga beat #6 Kansas 102-90: Gonzaga +32 Kansas -32 Kansas lost to #1 Gonzaga 90-102: Kansas +13 Gonzaga -13 That would give Gonzaga +19 points and Kansas -19 points. They should both get credit for playing each other in a competitive game. Giving Gonzaga +32 points and Kansas +13 makes more sense.) CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK St. Mary’s lost to #1 Gonzaga 55-78: St. Mary’s +2 Gonzaga -2 Brigham Young lost to #1 Gonzaga 78-88: Brigham Young +15 Gonzaga -15 Iowa State lost to #25 Oklahoma 73-79: Iowa State -5 Oklahoma +5 Kansas State lost to #2 Baylor 68-74: Kansas State +18 Baylor -18 Minnesota lost to #9 Ohio State 75-79: Minnesota +13 Ohio State -13 Oklahoma State beat #10 West Virginia 72-69: Oklahoma State +19 both ranked West Virginia lost to #12 Oklahoma State 69-72: West Virginia +11 both ranked Kansas beat #25 Oklahoma 69-62: Kansas +8 both ranked Oklahoma lost to #11 Kansas 62-69: Oklahoma +8 both ranked Texas beat #20 Texas Tech 67-66: Texas +7 both ranked Texas Tech lost to #13 Texas 66-67: Texas Tech +12 both ranked Georgetown beat #15 Villanova 72-71: Georgetown +12 Villanova -12 Syracuse lost to #16 Virginia 69-72: Syracuse +7 Virginia -7 Butler lost to #17 Creighton 56-87: Butler -22 Creighton +22 Wyoming lost to #19 San Diego State 66-69: Wyoming +4 San Diego State -4 North Carolina beat #22 Virginia Tech 81-73: North Carolina +12 Virginia Tech -12 California lost to #23 Colorado 58-61: even Utah lost to #24 Southern California 85-91: Utah -4 Southern California +4 Oklahoma State beat #2 Baylor 83-74: Oklahoma State +33 both ranked Baylor lost to #12 Oklahoma State 74-83: Baylor +5 both ranked Rutgers lost to #3 Illinois 68-90: Rutgers +1 both ranked Maryland lost to #4 Michigan 66-79: Maryland +9 Michigan -9 Mississippi State lost to #6 Alabama 48-85: Mississippi State -17 Alabama +17 Tulane lost to #7 Houston 52-77: Tulane -6 Houston +6 Missouri lost to #8 Arkansas 64-70: Missouri +12 Arkansas -12 Ohio State beat #20 Purdue 87-78: Ohio State +15 both ranked Purdue lost to #9 Ohio State 78-87: Purdue +8 both ranked North Carolina lost to #15 Florida State 66-69: North Carolina +8 Florida State -8 Nevada-Reno lost to #19 San Diego State 70-77: even Colorado beat #24 Southern California 72-70: even both ranked Southern California lost to #23 Colorado 70-72: Southern California +1 both ranked Connecticut lost to #17 Creighton 56-59: Connecticut +6 Creighton -6 Wisconsin lost to #5 Iowa 57-62: Wisconsin +16 Iowa -16 Illinois beat #5 Iowa 82-71: Illinois +32 both ranked Iowa lost to #3 Illinois 71-82: Iowa +12 both ranked Ohio State beat #4 Michigan 68-67: Ohio State +23 both ranked Michigan lost to #9 Ohio State 67-68: Michigan +16 both ranked Memphis lost to #7 Houston 74-76: Memphis +17 Houston -17 Texas beat #12 Oklahoma State 91-86: Texas +19 both ranked Oklahoma State lost to #13 Texas 86-91: Oklahoma State +8 both ranked Georgetown beat #17 Creighton 73-48: Georgetown +34 Creighton -34 Utah State lost to #19 San Diego State 57-68: Utah State -4 San Diego State +4 Oregon State beat #23 Colorado 70-68: Oregon State +5 Colorado -5 Tennessee lost to #6 Alabama 68-73: Tennessee +15 Alabama -15 Louisiana State beat #8 Arkansas 78-71: Louisiana State +11 Arkansas -11 Illinois beat #9 Ohio State 91-88: Illinois +20 both ranked Ohio State lost to #3 Illinois 88-91: Ohio State +20 both ranked Cincinnati lost to #7 Houston 54-91: Cincinnati -18 Houston +18 Louisiana State lost to #6 Alabama 79-80: Louisiana State +19 Alabama +19 After recording these scores, I’m not sure how I feel about the new stat. it gives too much credit for blow-out wins over over-matched opponents. But everyone plays games like that and maybe teams that don’t blow-out over-matched opponents should be debited for that by not getting as much credit. I’m also worried that the points accumulated against unranked teams might be more prolific than the points against ranked teams because that would be more games. What I’ll do is to keep track of them separately and also add them together. That way, if I decide I don’t like the new stat, I can just report the points “against ranked teams”. (Note: I’m late on this report because I was double checking the numbers and found a few mistakes which I’ve corrected.) TOP TEN AGAINST RANKED TEAMS Oklahoma State +233 Illinois +222 Kansas +205 Ohio State +198 West Virginia +196 Baylor +187 Iowa +182 Michigan +180 Texas +168 Oklahoma +165 (All Big 10 and Big 12 teams. Each conference has many ranked teams, especially after favorable results in the early non-conference games and they keep pushing each other’s numbers up by playing each other. But that means that they are used to playing- and beating – top teams. ) TOP TEN AS A RANKED TEAM AGAINST UNRANKED TEAMS Texas Tech +140 Houston +69 Iowa +54 Rutgers +52 Loyola (Chic) +48 San Diego State +30 Gonzaga +20 Drake +18 Arizona State +12 Baylor +9 (Texas Tech is way ahead in this ranking because they scheduled a lot of bad teams in their non-conference schedule, beating Northwestern Louisiana by 43, Sam Houston State by 32, Troy by 34 and Grambling by 41. That’s the weakness of this addition to the system: I’m trying to see how ranked teams perform against unranked teams but there’ 325 unranked teams and the variation in quality is much greater than that of ranked teams. On the other hand, Villanova is +45 against ranked teams but -167 against unranked teams for a combined -122. I don’t think they are way worse than Texas Tech but I think that suggests a team playing to the level of their opposition, which could be a red flag for the post season.) TOP TEN COMBINED Texas Tech +265 Iowa +236 Illinois +229 Oklahoma State +218 Ohio State +200 Kansas +198 Baylor +196 Michigan +143 Texas +143 Gonzaga +129 (Is Texas Tech the best team in the country? Probably not. But they have had a lot of experiences playing ranked teams and have done well and they’d maintained their level of performance against the lesser teams and that also suggests the consistency needed for a good post season run.) Syracuse has played just three teams that were ranked when we played them, (an indication of how far down the ACC was this year): Rutgers was ranked #21 when we played them. We lost to them by 10 points. Now we’ve beaten #16 Virginia Tech by 18 points and lost to Virginia by 23 points when they were ranked #8 and by 3 points when they were ranked #16 so, under this system, we’ve got +25 points. Here are the toral points earned by each team in the NCAA Bracket: WEST Gonzaga +129 Appalachian State -25 Norfolk State none Oklahoma +98 Missouri -27 Creighton -25 Cal-Santa Barbara none Virginia -1 Ohio University +16 Southern California -44 Wichita State +33 Drake -4 Kansas +198 Eastern Michigan -3 Oregon -27 Virginia Commonwealth -1 Iowa +236 Grand Canyon +2 EAST Michigan +143 Mount St. Mary’s none Texas Southern none Louisiana State +36 St. Bonaventure none Colorado +76 Georgetown +71 Florida State -11 UNC Greensboro none Brigham Young +55 Michigan State +71 UCLA -41 Texas +143 Abilene Christian +2 Connecticut +31 Maryland +66 Alabama +7 Iona none SOUTH Baylor +196 Hartford -20 North Carolina +73 Wisconsin +77 Villanova -122 Winthrop none Purdue +94 North Texas State +3 Texas Tech +265 Utah State -4 Arkansas +64 Colgate none Florida +53 Virginia Tech +17 Ohio State +200 Oral Roberts none MIDWEST Illinois +229 Drexel none Loyola (Chic) +48 Georgia tech +112 Tennessee +57 Oregon State +19 Oklahoma State +218 Liberty none San Diego State +64 Syracuse +25 West Virginia +115 Morehead State -50 Clemson -68 Rutgers +79 Houston +92 Cleveland State -2 [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?