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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 3203271, member: 289"] This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions. I’m going to do it using the procedure I started a couple years ago. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple: 1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1. (Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.) Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance. WEEK 14 Ohio State beat #13 Michigan 56-27 = +42 points Wisconsin beat #8 Minnesota 38-17 = +39 points Oklahoma beat #21 Oklahoma State 34-16 = +25 points Auburn beat #5 Alabama 48-45 = +24 points Memphis beat #19 Cincinnati 34-24 = +17 points Kansas State beat #23 Iowa State 27-17 = +13 points Virginia beat #24 Virginia Tech 39-30 = +11 points Alabama lost to #15 Auburn 45-48 = +8 points Nebraska lost to #17 Iowa 24-27 = +6 points Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point Colorado State lost to #20 Boise State 24-31 = -1 points Cincinnati lost to #18 Memphis 24-34 = -2 points Oregon State lost to #14 Oregon 10-24 = -2 points Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points Rutgers lost to #10 Penn State 6-27 = -5 points Minnesota lost to #12 Wisconsin 17-38 = -7 points Florida State lost to #11 Florida 17-40 = -8 points Colorado lost to #6 Utah 15-45 = -10 points Stanford lost to #16 Notre Dame 24-45 = -11 points South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points Georgia Tech lost to #4 Georgia 7-52 = -23 points Troy lost to #25 Appalachian State 13-48 = -34 points Kansas lost to #9 Baylor 6-61 = -38 points TOP 25 Ohio State +140 points Louisiana State +105 points Auburn +103 points Wisconsin +77 points Georgia +71 points Michigan +68 points Oklahoma +63 points Southern California +52 points Notre Dame +51 points Alabama +48 points Florida +48 points Arizona State +47 points Texas Christian +42 points Kansas State +41 points Washington +41 points Texas +37 points Virginia Tech +35 points Iowa +34 points Memphis +34 points Penn State +34 points Iowa State +31 points Clemson +28 points U of Miami +28 points Utah +27 points North Carolina +24 points Oklahoma State +24 points Syracuse has -10 points SU opponents: Liberty -20, Maryland has -83, Clemson +28, Western Michigan -27, Holy Cross none, North Carolina State -55 points, Pittsburgh +18, Florida State -21, Boston College -53, Duke -35, Louisville -3, Wake Forest -26 The worst team so far is Rutgers with -115 points. Comments: I decided to do something a little extra this week. People are suggesting Clemson must be over-rated because they haven’t played many ranked teams. That’s true but after the North Carolina game, they have bene crushing their opposition just like they did last year after their game with us. They won their last 7 regular season games last year by a combined 358-84, (51-12), then crushed Pittsburgh in the ACC title game 42-10, then moved into the playoff and rolled over Notre Dame 30-3 and Alabama 44-16. That’s a 10-0 run by an average score of 47-11. This year they seemed in low gear through the North Carolina game, which they rallied to win. 21-20. Since then they are 7-0, (353-61) , an average of 50-9. +28ART seems to me to under-rate them. It’s not their fault that their most of their opponents haven’t been ranked. If they are treating everyone they play like they were a punch-press, it’s entirely possible that they will continue to do so against the top teams from other conferences. I think that Clemson and Ohio State are the best teams in the country and LSU, which had been winning shoot-outs, may have risen to that level with their blow-out wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M, (yes, they were not good teams but it’s what Clemson and Ohio State would have done to those teams. What if I flipped the ART concept and looked at how teams have performed as a ranked team? Here si Clemson’s record this year: Georgia Tech lost to #1 Clemson 14-52 = -13 points Texas A&M lost to #1 Clemson 10-24 = +11 points Syracuse lost to #1 Clemson 6-41 = -10 points Charlotte lost to #1 Clemson 10-52 = -17 points North Carolina lost to #1 Clemson 20-21 = +24 points Florida State lost to #2 Clemson 14-45 = -7 points Louisville lost to #3 Clemson 10-45 = -12 points Boston College lost to #4 Clemson 7-59 = -30 points Wofford lost to #4 Clemson 14-59 = -23 points North Carolina State lost to #5 Clemson 10-55 = -24 points Wake Forest lost to #3 Clemson 3-52 = -26 points South Carolina lost to #3 Clemson 3-38 = -12 points TOTAL: -139 points Now let’s look at Ohio State: Florida Atlantic lost to #5 Ohio State 21-45 = -3 points Cincinnati lost to #5 Ohio State 0-42 = -21 points Indiana lost to #6 Ohio State 10-51 = -21 points Miami University lost to #6 Ohio State 5-76 = -51 points Nebraska lost to #5 Ohio State 7-48 = -20 points Michigan State lost to #4 Ohio State 10-34 = -2 points Northwestern lost to #4 Ohio State 3-52 = -27 points Wisconsin lost to #3 Ohio State 7-38 = -8 points Maryland lost to #1 Ohio State 14-73 = -34 points Rutgers lost to #2 Ohio State 21-56 = -11 points Penn State lost to #2 Ohio State 17-28 = +13 points Michigan lost to #1 Ohio State 27-56 = -4 points TOTAL: -189 points So the Buckeyes are still #1. Let’s look at LSU: Georgia Southern lost to #6 Louisiana State 3-55 = -32 points Texas lost to #6 Louisiana State 38-45 = +13 points NW Louisiana lost to #4 Louisiana State 14-65 = -29 points Vanderbilt lost to #4 Louisiana State 38-66 = -6 points Utah State lost to #5 Louisiana State 6-42 = -19 points Florida lost to #5 Louisiana State 28-42 = +7 points Mississippi State lost to #2 Louisiana State 13-36 = +1 points Auburn lost to #2 Louisiana State 20-23 = +21 points Alabama lost to #2 Louisiana State 41-46 = +19 points Mississippi lost to #1 Louisiana State 37-58 = +4 points Arkansas lost to #1 Louisiana State 20-56 = -11 points Texas A&M lost to #2 Louisiana State 7-50 = -19 points TOTAL: -51 points Georgia: Vanderbilt lost to #3 Georgia 6-30 = -1 point Murray State lost to #3 Georgia 17-63 = -23 points Arkansas State lost to #3 Georgia 0-55 = -32 points Notre Dame lost to #3 Georgia 17-23 = +17 points Tennessee lost to #3 Georgia 14-43 = -6 points South Carolina beat #3 Georgia 20-17 = +26 points Kentucky lost to #10 Georgia 0-21 = -5 points Florida lost to #8 Georgia 17-24 = +11 points Missouri lost to #6 Georgia 0-27 = -7 points Texas A&M lost to #4 Georgia 13-19 = +16 points Georgia Tech lost to #4 Georgia 7-52 = -23 points TOTAL: -27 points Oklahoma: Houston lost to #4 Oklahoma 31-49 = +4 points South Dakota lost to #4 Oklahoma 14-70 = -34 points UCLA lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-48 = -13 points Texas Tech lost to #6 Oklahoma 16-55 = -19 points Kansas lost to #6 Oklahoma 20-45 = -5 points Texas lost to #6 Oklahoma 27-34 = +13 points West Virginia lost to #5 Oklahoma 14-52 = -17 points Kansas State beat #5 Oklahoma 48-41 = +28 points Iowa State lost to #9 Oklahoma = +16 points Baylor lost to #10 Oklahoma 31-34 = +13 points Texas Christian lost to #9 Oklahoma 24-28 = +13 points Oklahoma State lost to #7 Oklahoma 16-34 = +1 point TOTAL: 0 Baylor: (The Bears weren’t ranked until game 6) Texas Tech lost to #22 Baylor 30-33 = +1 point Oklahoma State lost to #18 Baylor 27-45 = -10 points West Virginia lost to #12 Baylor 14-17 = +11 points Texas Christian lost to #12 Baylor 23-29 = +8 points Oklahoma beat #13 Baylor 34-31 = +16 points Texas lost to #14 Baylor 10-24 = -2 points Kansas lost to #9 Baylor 6-61 = -38 points TOTAL: -14 points And, finally Utah: Brigham Young lost to #14 Utah 12-30 = -6 points Northern Illinois lost to #13 Utah 17-35 = -5 points Idaho State lost to #11 Utah 0-31 = -16 points Southern California beat #10 Utah 30-23= +23 points Washington State lost to #19 Utah 13-38 = -18 points Oregon State lost to #15 Utah 7-52 = -34 points Arizona State lost to #13 Utah 3-21 = -5 points California lost to #12 Utah 0-35 = -21 points Washington lost to #9 Utah 28-33 = +12 points UCLA lost to #7 Utah 3-49 = -27 points Arizona lost to #7 Utah 7-35 = -9 yards Colorado lost to #6 Utah 15-45 = -10 points TOTAL: -116 points As I did this, I felt that one more adjustment was appropriate. Firstly, let’s invert the numbers and say that Clemson was +139 as a ranked team against their opposition, Ohio State +189, LSU +51, Georgia +27, Oklahoma 0, Baylor +14 and Utah +116. Now I’ll add in these schools own points against ranked teams to account for their schedule. Here is the result: Ohio State +329 points Clemson +167 points LSU +156 points Utah +143 points Georgia +98 points Oklahoma +63 points Baylor +27 points From this I would say that Clemson may be as good as they were last year but that Ohio State is still better and is probably one of the best teams of all time. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin can do any better against them. If form holds in the other games, Utah should be in over the Oklahoma-Baylor winner. If Georgia beats LSU both the Big 12 and Pac 12 could be shut out of the championship playoff. As that sort of thing adds up over the years, we will get closer and closer to an 8 team playoff, which I think we badly need. [/QUOTE]

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