SWC75
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This year I will be again charting how teams have done “against ranked teams”, which is something that always comes up at the end of the year when the arguments over who should be in the 4 team national championship playoff takes place. As usual, this is not meant to end those arguments, just to give those making them something to look at in forming their opinions.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started last year. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 1
Louisiana State beat #8 U of Miami 33-17. They get 18 schedule points for playing the #8 team and 16 game points by winning by that margin. = +34 points
Virginia Tech beat #19 Florida State 24-3 = +28 points
Auburn beat #6 Washington 21-16 = +25 points
Notre Dame beat #14 Michigan 24-17 = +19 points
Washington lost to #9 Auburn 16-21. They get 17 schedule points for playing the #9 team but lose 5 games points for losing by that margin. = +12 points
Appalachian State lost to #10 Penn State 38-45 = +9 points
Maryland beat #23 Texas 34-29 = +8 points
Utah State lost to #11 Michigan State 31-38 = +8 points
Michigan lost to #12 Notre Dame 17-24 = +7 points
San Diego State lost to #13 Stanford 10-31 = -8 points
Western Kentucky lost to #4 Wisconsin 3-34= -9 points
Nevada-Las Vegas lost to #15 Southern California 21-43 = -11 points
Louisville lost to #1 Alabama 14-51 = -12 points
Florida State lost to #20 Virginia Tech 3-24 = -15 points
U of Miami lost to #25 Louisiana State 17-33 = -15 points
Furman lost to #2 Clemson 7-48 = -17 points
Tennessee lost to #17 West Virginia 14-40 = -17 points
Austin Peay State lost to #3 Georgia 0-45 = -22 points
Oregon State lost to #5 Ohio State 31-77 = -25 points
Florida Atlantic lost to #7 Oklahoma 14-63 = -30 points
Bowling Green lost to #24 Oregon 24-58 = -32 points
Troy lost to #22 Boise State 20-56 = -32 points
Connecticut lost to #21 Central Florida 17-56= -34 points
Southern University lost to #16 Texas Christian 7-55 = -38 points
Stephen . Austin lost to #18 Mississippi State 6-63 = -49 points
Comments: Most of the teams in the left column will not be anywhere near the final standings: they are the sort of schools that play these games against big powers for the money. But there were some interesting games. Miami and Florida State both looked terrible. Penn State dodged the App State bullet and Michigan State dodged one against Utah State. Auburn-Washington and Notre Dame-Michigan earned points for both teams. And good for Ed Orgeron. Maybe he can find a doctor who can find his vocal cords.
I’m going to do it using the procedure I started last year. The original procedure was that I would first grant teams playing ranked teams a certain number of points based on who they are playing. If you played the #1 team, (I use the AP- writer’s poll for continuity), you get 25 points. If you are playing the #2 team, you get 24 points, etc. down to getting 1 point for playing the #25 team. I call these “schedule points”. Here’s a chart to make it simple:
1-25, 2-24, 3-23, 4-22, 5-21, 6-20, 7-19, 8-18, 9-17, 10-16, 11-15, 12-14, 13-13, 14-12, 15-11, 16-10, 17-9, 18-8, 19-7, 20-6, 21-5, 22-4, 23-3, 24-2, 25-1.
(Of course you can always just subtract the ranking from 26. That will work every time.)
Then I look at the point differential in the actual game. If you defeated the ranked team, you add the number of points you won by to the schedule points. If you lost to that team, you subtract the margin you lost by from the schedule points. (I call these ‘game’ points.) The difference between this procedure and the original one if that I didn’t count any deficit: if you got to zero, you got zero. This year I’m going to try to record negative points, too, so a team can get full ‘credit’ for a really bad performance.
WEEK 1
Louisiana State beat #8 U of Miami 33-17. They get 18 schedule points for playing the #8 team and 16 game points by winning by that margin. = +34 points
Virginia Tech beat #19 Florida State 24-3 = +28 points
Auburn beat #6 Washington 21-16 = +25 points
Notre Dame beat #14 Michigan 24-17 = +19 points
Washington lost to #9 Auburn 16-21. They get 17 schedule points for playing the #9 team but lose 5 games points for losing by that margin. = +12 points
Appalachian State lost to #10 Penn State 38-45 = +9 points
Maryland beat #23 Texas 34-29 = +8 points
Utah State lost to #11 Michigan State 31-38 = +8 points
Michigan lost to #12 Notre Dame 17-24 = +7 points
San Diego State lost to #13 Stanford 10-31 = -8 points
Western Kentucky lost to #4 Wisconsin 3-34= -9 points
Nevada-Las Vegas lost to #15 Southern California 21-43 = -11 points
Louisville lost to #1 Alabama 14-51 = -12 points
Florida State lost to #20 Virginia Tech 3-24 = -15 points
U of Miami lost to #25 Louisiana State 17-33 = -15 points
Furman lost to #2 Clemson 7-48 = -17 points
Tennessee lost to #17 West Virginia 14-40 = -17 points
Austin Peay State lost to #3 Georgia 0-45 = -22 points
Oregon State lost to #5 Ohio State 31-77 = -25 points
Florida Atlantic lost to #7 Oklahoma 14-63 = -30 points
Bowling Green lost to #24 Oregon 24-58 = -32 points
Troy lost to #22 Boise State 20-56 = -32 points
Connecticut lost to #21 Central Florida 17-56= -34 points
Southern University lost to #16 Texas Christian 7-55 = -38 points
Stephen . Austin lost to #18 Mississippi State 6-63 = -49 points
Comments: Most of the teams in the left column will not be anywhere near the final standings: they are the sort of schools that play these games against big powers for the money. But there were some interesting games. Miami and Florida State both looked terrible. Penn State dodged the App State bullet and Michigan State dodged one against Utah State. Auburn-Washington and Notre Dame-Michigan earned points for both teams. And good for Ed Orgeron. Maybe he can find a doctor who can find his vocal cords.
